UN climate chief Simon Stiell warns fruit and veg will be ‘once-a-year treat’

Simon Stiell has declared Australia will let the world ‘overheat’ if Labor does not lift its clean-energy ambitions.

UN climate chief Simon Stiell has implored Labor to lift its emissions target.

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The UN’s climate chief has ­declared Australia will let the world “overheat” and fruit will be a “once-a-year treat” if Labor does not lift its clean-energy ambitions, as Anthony Albanese prepares to trumpet an ambitious emissions target to world leaders in his bid to host the next global green summit.

Following heated debate over climate change and the net-zero target in the first parliamentary sitting fortnight of the new term, during which Coalition MPs and conservative think-tanks argued the energy transition would cost billions, UN climate change executive secretary Simon Stiell demanded Australia not “settle for what’s easy” when enshrining its 2035 target.

The top climate diplomat – who will meet Climate Change and ­Energy Minister Chris Bowen in Canberra on Tuesday – also warned unambitious interim targets would lead to a nosedive in Australia’s “high living standards” and make the current grocery price crisis “look like a picnic”.

“Mega-droughts (will make) fresh fruit and veg a once-a-year treat. In total, the country could face a $6.8 trillion GDP loss by 2050,” Mr Stiell warned at an event hosted by the Smart Energy Council in Sydney on Monday.

“Australia has a strong economy and among the highest living standards in the world. If you want to keep them, doubling down on clean energy is an economic no-brainer. Bog standard is beneath you. The question is: how far are you willing to go?

“The answer is due in September – when Australia’s next national climate plan is due.”

Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen in question time on Monday. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Following the May 3 election, The Australian revealed the Climate Change Authority, chaired by former NSW Liberal treasurer Matt Kean, would finalise its 2035 emissions target by the end of July.

The CCA advice, which was delayed last December until after the election to include updated analysis on the impacts of US President Donald Trump’s policies, is expected to be announced in conjunction with the Prime Minister’s international summit season, due to begin in early September.

Environmental and industry groups have ramped up lobbying efforts over the 2035 emissions target in recent weeks. The CCA has previously said it was considering a reduction target of between 65 per cent and 75 per cent below 2005 levels – a substantial increase on Australia’s existing pledge to reduce emissions by 43 per cent below 2005 levels by the end of the decade.

The Albanese government will use its updated 2035 emissions reduction target as part of its final lobbying efforts to win its bid to co-host the UN COP31 climate change summit with Pacific nations next year. Mr Bowen must finalise and submit Australia’s updated Nationally Determined Contributions, including 2035 targets, by September.

Mr Albanese, who is expected to attend the Pacific Islands Forum in the Solomon Islands, the Quad Leaders’ summit in India, the G20 summit in South Africa, APEC in South Korea and the UN General Assembly in New York in coming months, is likely to make his first appearance at a COP summit since winning the 2022 election. The UN COP31 host will be announced in Brazil in November.

Mr Stiell on Monday. Picture: AFP

As Mr Albanese and Mr Kean work out their next moves on targets, Mr Stiell claimed that if Australia wanted to keep enjoying its high living standards, it would need to “double down” on clean energy.

“Living standards could drop by over $7000 per person per year. And rising seas, resource pressures, and extreme weather would destabilise Australian, Australia’s neighbourhood – from Pacific ­Island nations to Southeast Asia – threatening your security.”

Mr Stiell said the countries that acted “boldly today” would be the ones that would prosper.

“The change is working,” he said. “Now consider the alternative: missing the opportunity and letting the world overheat. Go for what’s smart by going big. Go for what will build lasting wealth and national security. Go for what will change the game – and stand the test of time. Go for it.”

The pressure around 2035 targets comes as NSW coal miners face a climate change crackdown, with the environmental regulator imposing new draft rules to cut methane and diesel pollution amid fears the state may fail to meet 2030 emissions reduction targets.

Institute of Public Affairs data shows the Safeguard mechanism, which applies to 233 emitting facilities, incurred a carbon credit cost of $300m in 2023-24, and will accumulate between $7.1bn to $11.7bn by 2029-20. The conservative think tank predicted the annual average over that period will be between $1.02bn and $1.67bn.

IPA chief economist Adam Creighton said the annual rate was more than the projected cost of the tariffs imposed on Australia by the United States, estimated to be valued at $1.2bn per annum. “The cost of just one net-zero policy alone – the safeguard mechanism – already exceeds the cost to Australians of the Trump tariffs, which reinforces policymakers should focus on domestic policy rather than shifting blame to international events which are largely uncontrollable,” he said.

Barnaby Joyce and Michael McCormack are joined by National Party MPs and senators in Canberra on Monday. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

On Tuesday, members of the crossbench, alongside climate and environmental groups, will gather in Canberra to advocate for a stronger 2035 target, with some groups, including the Climate Council, pushing for Labor to ­rapidly decarbonise the economy in order to achieve net zero within a decade. Business groups remain wary of that commitment, with Australian Chamber of Commerce of ­Industry boss Andrew McKellar last week warning a target of 65 to 75 per cent would be “exceedingly challenging” for the private sector to achieve.

Mr Stiell – in a veiled swipe over the debate in parliament over the last week, driven in large part by former Nationals leaders Barnaby Joyce and Michael McCormack campaigning against net zero – noted that “climate policy debates can be complex and ­contentious”.

“If those debates deliver an ambitious, all-economy plan with public backing and political backbone then – whatever the naysayers might say – every hard-fought inch will be worth it,” he said.

“I think Australians get it. From cabinet rooms to boardrooms, from farms to factories to kitchen tables – you know unchecked climate change is an economic wrecking ball. You know half-measures will destroy property and infrastructure, hammer households, bankrupt regions, and punch holes in public budgets. And you know that real action opens the door to real leadership – and big rewards for this ambitious, capable country.”

Sussan Ley left open the door to changes in the Coalition’s net zero commitments following a policy review, but stressed cabinet solidarity would bind Nationals and Liberals alike on a position once that process was finalised. “Everything has to be considered and people have different views … Everything is on the table, and I want to make that clear,” the ­Opposition Leader told Sky News.

“I’m the leader, and I’ll make the call when the time comes, but what I said at the beginning of my leadership was I would consult, I would listen, and when it comes to policy, we would do this with everyone playing their part and having their say.”

Ms Ley criticised Labor for energy policies that were not delivering for Australians’ back pockets, vowing she would not let the government “off the hook” for breaking its promise of reducing power bills by $275.

Bruce Mountain, head of the Victorian Energy Policy Centre, said the energy transition had “stalled” and Australia had “no prospect” of meeting its 2030 target — arguing a lower 2035 goal than the CCA was canvassing was needed to preserve community support.

“Otherwise we undermine public trust in the process and we’ll have ongoing opposition,” Professor Mountain said.

Rather than adopt a specific target, Tony Wood, a senior fellow in the Grattan Institute’s energy and climate program, agitated for the government to adopt a range between 65 and 75 per cent – affording greater flexibility as the cost of decarbonisation and consequences of climate change became clearer.

“That way you don’t lock yourselves into something that’s not too ambitious, but also not ambitious enough,” Mr Wood said.

Additional reporting: Jack Quail