Shayne O’Cass’ Rosehill tips, race-by-race analysis

Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday including the Group 2 Hill Stakes.

Racenet and The Daily Telegraph form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday including the Group 2 Hill Stakes.

Shayne’s race-by-race comments and suggested bets are below.

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RACE 1: MIDWAY (Bm72) 1400m

TOTOKA (14) has had six starts and in that time she has contested the Sweet Embrace, Magic Night and Up And Coming. The Paul Perry-trained Brutal filly appreciated a huge step off in class when she finished third at a Rosehill midweeker over 1300m. Extra 100m might prove the difference. ALABAMA STATE (16) was scratched from the Tapp-Craig to run here from a smashing draw. TREIZE (9) is a Midway horse from nose to tail and drawn to best possible effect.

Bet: Totoka each-way

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RACE 2: TAB HIGHWAY HCP (C3) 1500m

WHO EVER THOUGHT (9) ran seventh of 16 in his first Highway three runs back but since then, he was runner-up to subsequent Highway winner Awaygoesthebunny and better still, he was a big last start winner with 60.5kg on board. OCCHIATA (11) was fourth in the Awaygoesthebunny Highway and two-and a-quarter lengths behind Lonhro’s Queen in her Aug 3 Highway. HULU (14) had a terrible draw but did have 14 of 17 when a narrow second in her first Highway on Sept 28.

Bet: Who Ever Thought each-way

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It's a @cwallerracing double at Doomben as Caboche wins with @JimmyOrman in the saddle!@BrisRacingClubpic.twitter.com/RXd8osp22k

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 7, 2024

• Heavyweights endorse The Everest’s ‘deserved’ Group 1 status

RACE 3: VALE JOHN NICHOLSON (Bm88) 2000m

CABOCHE (1), the 2022 Queensland Derby bronze medallist, is back in town after a four-start stint back in Queensland which ended with a fantastic close and closing third in the Toowoomba Cup. The 3kg off makes him so likeable. BEAR ON THE LOOSE (6) has won four from eight and placed twice. If there is a negative, it is that despite that wonderful record, he has been a bit costly down here. MEDATSU (9) was very good in the Dubbo Cup and is suited getting back up to 2000m and hopefully on firm ground.

Bet: Caboche to win

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RACE 4: TAB GLOAMING STAKES 1800m

EL CASTELLO (3) ran a brave second to Broadsiding in the Fernhill at just his second race start. He was going to be Anthony Cummings’ VRC Derby horse from day one and he might well get there and potentially win it. Regards the Gloaming, El Castello is on a hat-trick and spiralling upwards. SWIFTFALCON (1) on the swift back-up after a hugely impressive win in the Dulcify last Saturday. Extra trip won’t bother him one bit. DUVANa (4) has always promised and is starting to deliver.

Bet: El Castello to win (best bet)

The fav El Castello takes the opener at Randwick today with @clarkyhk in the saddle for @ACummingsracing 👏 pic.twitter.com/WCsdOrRtBM

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 21, 2024

• Austin confident despite Terra’s firmer test

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RACE 5: CANADIAN CLUB ROMAN CONSUL STAKES 1200m

COLEMAN (1) must be singular among his crop I reckon for the reason being that all eight career starts have been in stakes races; five are in Group 1’s and we all know that he placed in the Slipper and Sires up here. With all that said, he is so well treated at the set weights. PERSPIRATION (5) was last out, first home in the Heritage here 14 days ago. One has to believe what one sees. SPIRIT OF WEALTH (11) is perhaps a tiny bit raw but a large bit talented and unbeaten.

Bet: Coleman to win, box trifecta 1, 5, 10, 11

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RACE 6: TAPP-CRAIG 1400m

MORE TERRITORIES (12) was a barnstorming winner on the Kensington on debut; only good horses win like that there. I saw Airman do something vaguely similar one day. Anyway, after that, she ran sixth in the Percy Sykes and more recently fifth in the Furious and sixth in the Tea Rose. This is down in class for mine. DECONSTRUCTION (10), a nephew of Yes Yes Yes, is untapped and headed in the right direction. Definitely not out of place here in a Tapp-Craig. Not giving up on Althoff yet.

Bet: More Territories to win, exacta 12 to beat 10, quinella 10, 12

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It's Ceolwulf right down the outside in the TAB Epsom and he sails away to take the famous G1 mile for @SchofieldChad and @PrideRacing! 🏆@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/irirNeZGse

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 5, 2024

• ‘Haven’t seen best of him’: ‘Brickie’ lays down $2m marker

RACE 7: TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HILL STAKES 1900m

Not saying he would or should have won the Epsom but barrier 1 was more a hindrance than a help to KOVALICA (4) in the Epsom. The Queensland Derby winner has barrier 2 in the Hill Stakes on Saturday but it is 1900m and you would prefer two to 12 from this start any day. PERICLES (1) has drawn even better in some ways. You would think from barrier 4, Nash might just find the run of the race for the horse. ROYAL PATRONAGE (2) has been such a ‘find’ for Tulloch Lodge.

Bet: Kovalica to win, quinella 1, 4

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RACE 8: ALAN BROWN STAKES 1400m

Speaking of barriers, inside barriers to be precise, I wonder what barrier 3 means for ENCAP (9)? We will leave all that to Kerrin McEvoy but in terms of everything else, hasn’t this $1.5 million, fast run 1400m Quality, come up at the perfect time for this vastly underrated son of Capitalist. There’s a whole Chapter in the ‘Punter’s Guide to Winning’ about forgiving a good horse one bad run and when it comes to SEMANA (5) and the Golden Pendant, it wasn’t all her fault; she just got too far back. BELCLARE (7) had even bigger excuses with the saddle shifting.

Bet: Encap each-way, Daily Double 1st Leg (9), 2nd Leg (11)

Encap wins the G2 Theo Marks Stakes second up for @GaryPortelli and Jason Collett! pic.twitter.com/3UsmFzLWEX

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 14, 2024

• ‘He is up to the grade’: Freedman hails young hoop

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RACE 9: THE NIVISON 1200m

The Nivison is a long way short of being a two-horse but one gets the sense that Chris Waller will, make that might, win it with either ROOTS (2) or OLENTIa (3). That’s my humble order anyway. Roots was just fantastic first-up in the Tibbie. Her Rosehill record and 1200m record is compelling. Not too worried about the wide alley. I still remember the day Olentia beat Tristate and the others in a 1200m Benchmark 88 here in August 2023. That was dare I say, Winx-like. I expect BALLROOM BELLA (8) will launch late.

Bet: Roots to win, Ballroom Bella to place

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RACE 10: ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB (BM78) 1100m

Saturday’s Get Out Stakes is a mini replay of the last race here two weeks ago where the poor old favourite backers had the hopes dashed when PHARARI (10) basically stalled on the grid. Not quite, but most of us expected him to zoom out and lead and maybe even run them off their legs. Barrier 1 on Saturday. Seems good but he’s got to jump. There is a lot of speed in this race if they all start. I am hoping that it could play into the hands of the swooper CAVALLO RAMPANTE (11) and a very confident Chad Schofield.

Bet: Cavallo Rampante each-way

Peace Treaty takes the last! ✌️ @Blake_Shinn bookends the program in the saddle for @FreedmanRacing. pic.twitter.com/uy0GwvS4Fk

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 28, 2024

Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’ Rosehill tips, race-by-race analysis