Early Oil: Best bets and value plays for Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas day meeting at Caulfield

An unbeaten three-year-old from the Phillip Stokes camp can return with a win while a $13 shot can improve significantly on his first-up run at Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas meeting.

News Corp form analyst Brad Waters takes an early look at Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas meeting.

BEST BET

I AM VELVET (Race 2, No. 3)

Exciting filly that is unbeaten in three starts, including an impressive win at Caulfield last time in. She can resume a winner on Saturday.

VALUE BET

RUN HARRY RUN (Race 5, No. 13)

Run Harry Run led and gave a good sight behind the smart Another Wil when resuming. He’ll have a softer run this time and will be much fitter.

EARLY QUADDIE

1, 3, 6, 9, 10/1, 2, 6, 8, 14/6, 7, 14, 16/2, 4, 6, 10

$100 flexi for 25 per cent

QUADDIE

Race 7: 1, 5, 6

Race 8: 1, 3

Race 9: 1, 2, 6, 9

Race 10: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9

$100 flexi for 83 per cent

■■■■■

RACE 1: 12.15PM SHEEN PANEL SERVICE HANDICAP (1700m)

Interesting race to start Caulfield Guineas Day but SHAHZAD (1) will be much fitter for his solid Ballarat run, which was his first for a year and could fire second-up. NAILS MURPHY (3) is racing consistently and is drawn to have every chance again. SABAN (8) was a strong Flemington winner first-up and looks suited over this trip second-up. LE ZEBRA (5) had little luck last time out and can improve.

SUGGESTED BET: Shahzad each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET Saban $3.70 - $3.30.

RACE 2: 12.50PM THOROUGHBRED CLUB PLATE (1200m)

Happy to back I AM VELVET (3) to stay unbeaten in this after an impressive two-year-old season from which she will only be improved. KHADIME (6) was solid at Sandown second-up and will be fitter again. ERNO’S CUBE (1) wasn’t far away from the outstanding Sydney filly Autumn Glow last time out and will find this easier. KEEPSAKE (12) has been set a big task on debut but her jumpouts have been promising.

SUGGESTED BET: I Am Velvet to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: I Am Velvet $5 - $4.50.

RACE 3: 1.25PM GROUP 3 NORTHWOOD PLUME STAKES (1200m)

YELLOW SAM (3) is worth specking at the price despite her tricky draw. She came of age as a stakes performer last season and has trialled well. CHARM STONE (1) is another talented type resuming and could perform fresh. A LITTLE DEEP (6) steps up in class but her form this time in entitles her to a crack at this level. KUNDALINI (10) is a developing type that could handle this class rise.

SUGGESTED BET: Yellow Sam each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: A Little Deep $4.20 - $3.20.

Winx’s half-sister City Of Lights will be hard to hold out at Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas meeting. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 4: 2PM GROUP 3 CATANCH’s 150 YEARS VASE (1600m)

Tough race but CITY OF LIGHTS (14), a half-sister to Winx, looks well suited in this after an unlucky first-up run at Newcastle from which she will be improved. RUMBLED AGAIN (8) raced wide and tried hard in the Stocks Stakes at The Valley and is at peak fitness now. QUICKSTER (6) wasn’t far away in an on-pacers’ race first-up and is a second-up winner.

SUGGESTED BET: City Of Lights to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Lady Jones $5.50 - $4.80.

RACE 5: 2.35PM WEEKEND HUSSLER STAKES (1400m)

RUN HARRY RUN (14) returned with an excellent effort when third to Another Wil at level weights at Caulfield and will enjoy dropping 3.5kg for this. JIMMYSSTAR (7) ran on hard late to score first-up and could remain unbeaten at Caulfield. COASTWATCH (6) will be improved after a strong first-up effort at Rosehill while SUPARAZI (16) is racing well and is worth putting into exotics.

SUGGESTED BET: Run Harry Run each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Jimmysstar $2.60 - $2.15.

RACE 6: 3.15PM GROUP 2 HERBERT POWER STAKES (2400m)

One of the harder races of the day but DASHING DUCHESS (10) could bounce back after struggling to quicken in heavy ground at Flemington while she only has 53kg here. GEAR UP (4) has come back well with two good efforts this time in and won’t be far away. FANCY MAN (6) is yet to win second-up but will be much fitter for his solid first-up run. MAHRAJAAN (2) has a sound 2400m record and could measure up to this.

SUGGESTED BET: Dashing Duchess each-way.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Haaracaine $12 - $7.

Dashing Duchess can improve significantly on firmer footing in the Group 2 Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 7: 3.50PM GROUP 1 MIGHT AND POWER (2000m)

MR BRIGHTSIDE (1) has a class edge on most of these and looked ready for 2000m when chasing home Pride Of Jenni in the Feehan Stakes. ATISHU (5) was OK in soft ground in the Turnbull Stakes and can improve sharply on firmer footing. DENY KNOWLEDGE (6) produced a good fresh effort in the Underwood Stakes and 2000m suits. COCO SUN (8) will be fitter for two runs in and 2000m suits now.

SUGGESTED BET: Box trifecta 1, 5, 6, 8

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Deny Knowledge $10 - $9.

RACE 8: 4.30PM GROUP 1 CAULFIELD GUINEAS (1600m)

BROADSIDING (1) is simply an outstanding colt as shown by his first-up run in the Golden Rose, which is always great form for the Caulfield Guineas. EVAPORATE (3) is flying at The Valley and should go well again if he takes that form to Caulfield. ANGEL CAPITAL (4) is doing everything right and must be considered again here. MAYFAIR (5) went close to beating Broadsiding in the Golden Rose and will be thereabouts again.

SUGGESTED BET: Trifecta 1/3, 4, 5/3, 4, 5.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Mayfair $9 - $7.50.

Former Kiwi Desert Lightning looms as a great chance to post his second Group 1 win in the Toorak Handicap. Picture: Racing Photos via Getty Images

RACE 9: 5.10PM GROUP 2 SCHILLACI STAKES (1100m)

Plenty of speed here but going with the Perth speedster OSCAR’S FORTUNE (1). He flies over 1100m and his Flemington jumpout showed he has settled in well to Melbourne. STAR PATROL (6) has an impressive first-up record and has gone well at the jumpouts. BELLATRIX STAR (9) jumps in class against the older horses but is racing in great form. MORNINGTON GLORY (2) is at the peak of his powers and could post his fourth win in a row.

SUGGESTED BET: Oscar’s Fortune to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Mornington Glory $4.20 - $3.80.

RACE 10: 5.45PM GROUP 1 TOORAK HANDICAP (1600m)

DESERT LIGHTNING (1) has impressed in two runs for the Moody and Coleman camp and is a Group 1 winner in New Zealand over 1600m. ANOTHER WIL (4) will start as the short-priced favourite after two strong wins this time in but should measure up. ANTINO (3) was narrowly beaten in this race last year and should go close again. ALSEPHINA (7) burst through late to win at The Valley second-up and drops to 53.5kg.

SUGGESTED BET: Desert Lightning to win.

LADBROKES MARKET MOVER: Desert Lightning $9.50 - $7.

Originally published as Early Oil: Best bets and value plays for Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas day meeting at Caulfield