Shayne O’Cass’ Randwick tips, race-by-race analysis
Form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card at Royal Randwick on Saturday including the Group 1 TAB Everest and Group 1 King Charles III Stakes.
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Racenet and The Daily Telegraph form expert Shayne O’Cass analyses the 10-race card at Rosehill Gardens on Saturday including the Group 1 TAB Everest and Group 1 King Charles III Stakes.
Shayne’s race-by-race comments and suggested bets are below.
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RACE 1: THE STAR ST LEGER STAKES 2600m
Stockman is as tough as any stock horse; he’s run in three Sydney Cups, a Melbourne Cup and a whole lot of other major WFA races and Handicaps. One of them was last year’s St Leger which he won. As for this prep, a succession of ‘Good, on-pace bias tracks’ have hidden the merit in a few of his runs. Trust In You is a good old-fashioned Kiwi stayer who went within an inch of placing in The Metropolitan last start. Alegron will stay this trip.
Bet: Stockman each-way
Stockman had it all sewn up in the St Leger! @PrideRacing@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/e8hOHXsyrI
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 15, 2022
RACE 2: BIG DANCE WILD CARD 1600m
Just for some context. I was all over Ducasse last start. What happened? The stewards summed it up best ‘Raced wide and without cover from the 1000m’. He did draw 11 of 11. He was still very willing to the line and keep in mind he beat Tannhauser in the Carbine Club in the autumn. Vivy Air has been very costly indeed but with that said, she is running good races in good races, nay better race perhaps than this.
Bet: Ducasse to win (best bet)
DUCASSE held off the late run of Tannhauser to win the $250k G3 Carbine Club Stakes at Randwick @aus_turf_club | @SkyRacingWorld. @blake_shinn was in the irons of the 3-year-old son of Trapeze Artist (@widdenstud) for trainer @MFreedmanRacing.
— FanDuel Racing (@FanDuel_Racing) April 6, 2024
Up next: https://t.co/tC1WLWGTvxpic.twitter.com/20em20KfvF
• Neasham no stranger to royal treatment
RACE 3: BISLEY WORKWEAR REGINALD ALLEN QLTY 1400m
The Gerry Harvey bred and $600,000 Magic Millions Yearling purchase, Jellicious, split Clean Energy and Lady Shenandoah on debut (tick) then resumes and finished in between Amelita and Eton in a Canterbury midweeker (tick). Like her at 1400m, like her more from barrier 4 and Tommy Berry. This race has come along at the right time for Concordia Wind; third-up and peaking. Stablemate Aeliana is crying out for 1400m on a big track. Silver Wedding is enticing at $15/$4.
Bet: Jellicious each-way, box trifecta 5, 8, 10, 13
An easy all-the-way win to Amelita for @cwallerracing and @mcacajamez in the opener at Canterbury!@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/z8L7qwnpAr
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 18, 2024
RACE 4: JAMES SQUIRE ANGST STAKES 1600m
Unique Ambition was given a pearler by Blake Shinn in a 1300m Midway first-up at Rosehill on Sept 28 but credit to the horse too, she was just better than the rest and note that the rest included subsequent winner, Alabama State. There is more to come from this mare. Ron Quinton won the Angst way back in 1997 with Stoneyfell Road then again in 2016 and 2017 with Dixie Blossoms. How could the Hall Of Famer not run Watch My Girl in the 2024 edition given how well she is going?
Bet: Unique Ambition to win, quinella 9, 10
Heavily backed Unique Ambition gets the split under @blake_shinn to take the Midway for @jsargentracing!
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 28, 2024
Shinn rides the final winner at The Valley last night, now takes the first at Rosehill on the quick back-up 👠pic.twitter.com/ioot3OZXZM
• Everest Day Turf Talk: ‘Crazy to Think he missed a slot’
I reckon if Clear Thinking were in the Kosciuszko, she wins. There’s my segue into my actual fancy in the $2 million feature, Tanglewood, who was pegged back on the line by Clear Thinking in a 1200m Highway (Heavy 9) here back in May. I am not sold on Tanglewood in a very high pressure 1200m but at $23/$5, I’ll take the chance. Compelling Truth would have been my on-top selection if he drew single figures. That said, he just keeps winning. Asgarda has been underrated before and even after her Country Championship Final win.
Bet: Tanglewood each-way, First 4 (boxed) Nos. 2, 3, 4, 8, 9, 11, 12
Tanglewood gets the split and races home to take out the sixth at Randwick-Kensington for @Howlettracing_! 👠pic.twitter.com/CbNuUzyMz0
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) September 11, 2024
RACE 6: TOYOTA FORKLIFTS SYDNEY STAKES 1200m
Pakenham mare Climbing Star has the visitor’s draw in the Sydney Stakes (15 of 18) but it soothes the anxiety somewhat when you recall that she won the Robert Sangster from barrier 14 of 14. She drew 10 of 12 in the Manikato last start and was huge in that too. Overpass and Think About It could just have easily been in the Everest. Me? I am can’t believe the defending champion Think About it couldn’t get a seat the table. Just a bit worried by his draw here though.
Bet: Climbing Star each-way
CLIMBING STAR WINS THE SANGSTER! âï¸
— 7HorseRacing 🎠(@7horseracing) April 27, 2024
LACHLAN NIENDORF WINS HIS FIRST GROUP 1!@pstokesracing@LNeindorf@RacingSApic.twitter.com/bqxVvebHHX
• Ceolwulf can match ‘breathtaking’ Epsom win: Schofield
I Wish I Win’s Sydney runs are a win in the Golden Eagle, a win in the 2023 T J Smith, a second in the Everest (unlucky) and a third in a 2024 T J Smith. His form is there for all to see so my only humble contributions are that his two runs on the unsuitable Valley were fantastic lead-ins and the draw, barrier 9, in 2024 suits a lot more than 1 in 2023. Private Eye has run in two Everests and placed in both. He’s been the victim of ‘too dry, too fast track’ at his last two. Edge off helps big time. Sunshine in Paris is the best of the mares now that Bella Nipotina drew 12. Traffic Warden gets a dream run on paper.
Bet: I Wish I Win to win, exacta 1 to beat 3
When your wish comes true! 😉
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) June 1, 2024
I Wish I Win takes the G1 Kingsford Smith Cup with @luke_nolen in the saddle for Team @moodyracingpgm - @kscoleman!@BrisRacingClubpic.twitter.com/TERTwuUS1e
Skybird could stay at home for the Tristarc so if that is the case, my money is on another of the Victorians in Stretan Angel who is the Phillip Stokes-trained stablemate of the aforementioned Sydney Stakes contender, Climbing Star. This mare’s wins include a Danehill Stakes and a Debutant Stakes as well as a second (to Climbing Star) in the Sangster and a last start, neck, third in the Gilgai. That’s some resume. Xidaki, from barrier 1 and Kerrin McEvoy, is an enticing prospect. He’s getting better with every run.
Bet: Skybird each-way, Stretan’s Angel each-way, Xidaki to place
The G2 Tobin Bronze Stakes goes to Skybird & @beau_mertens 😠@Freedmanmitch has done a great job with her 👠pic.twitter.com/cwSf0Ovl5j
— Racing.com (@Racing) April 27, 2024
• Dunn warns ‘chance of a blowout’ in The Kosciuszko
RACE 9: KING CHARLES III STAKES 1600m
Celestial Legend has raced twice at the Randwick Mile for a win in the Guineas and the Doncaster after that (albeit with 49kg a great ride and some luck). Having established that is a Randwick Miler, one has to be convinced that his Theo Marks and Shannon Stakes runs were up to winning a King Charles. I know I am probably in the minority but I thought there were pretty decent runs. Blinkers first time for him on the weekend. The ‘others’ kind of pick themselves (in my own order), Ceolwulf, Fangirl, Pride Of Jenni.
Bet: Celestial Legend each-way
That win is the stuff of legend!
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) April 6, 2024
Look at Celestial Legend jump out of the ground to take the G1 Doncaster Mile for Les Bridge and @G1TySchil !@aus_turf_clubpic.twitter.com/r3eRQyYXU2
RACE 10: WORLD POOL (BM88) 1400m
No sane person could be ‘keen’ on one in this deadset Powerball Handicap but I am and it’s $51. Enter Super Helpful, a horse that (pardon my indulgence) I tipped in last year’s Big Dance. I know him well and I feel that he is going as well as he has even been. Look out for him on the first Tuesday in November back here too. Money From The Sky is a big chance in this and also on Big Dance Day for his Big Dance winning trainer.
Bet: Super Helpful each-way, exacta 5 to beat 18
Super Helpful closes the card at $61! 💰 pic.twitter.com/6ioxwNf8WI
— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 7, 2023
Originally published as Shayne O’Cass’ Randwick tips, race-by-race analysis
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