Professional punters Mark Guest and James Molony explain track bias

Track bias was the big talking point during and after last week’s Caulfield Guineas meeting as our Racenet experts weigh in on the discussion.

In the aftermath of last Saturday’s Caulfield Guineas meeting at Caulfield, all the talk centred around one thing – track bias.

Following his shock defeat on Broadsiding in the Caulfield Guineas, champion jockey James McDonald wasn’t backward in coming forward in declaring that the “bias” towards on-pace fence runners negated any prospects of the gun colt winning.

Other jockeys quickly followed with similar sentiments as the issue quickly enveloped to take on a life of its own.

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So what is track bias?

Is it fact or is it fiction?

They’re all running on the same turf, right?

For many the sheer notion is hard to digest.

“Mark my words, track bias is real,” declared Racenet’s Mark Guest.

“The tempo of the race is super important but obviously a jockey needs to adapt to the bias in real time.

“Walking the track can give a jockey an edge but only if the jockey has experience walking racetracks.

“Sometimes the bias can be exaggerated by jockeys.

Mark Guest.

James Molony.

“The most famous example was Shane Dye on Veandercross in the 1995 Caulfield Cup, although Shane still insists he got it right.

“The best jockeys can normally work the bias out sooner and can judge the pace of the race. This is vital.

“The facts say most races are won by horses settling in the first half. The further back you are the more chance of running into trouble.

“Bias and barriers become less of a factor when the track is slow to heavy because the ones who handle the conditions best normally figure in the finish. Also, the jockeys generally can use more of the track in wet conditions so it can take bad luck out of play.”

Fellow Racenet form student James Molony agrees with Guesty’s take, but said the term can be overused and exaggerated.

“It can definitely be overstated,” Molony said.

“Say for example a meeting where the first three leaders win may not necessarily have anything to do with track bias. It might just be that they have gone at such a slow early speed that the backmarkers weren’t given a chance to make up late ground.

“Many factors need to be considered when taking into consideration the potential bias of a track, including tempo, rail position, length of the straight, track rating/variability of lanes, barrier position relative to the first bend.”

Originally published as Professional punters Mark Guest and James Molony explain track bias