Wreck-It Ralph: The stats the say Carlton can win the flag from outside top four

The Blues’ run towards a possible finals berth has not been the smooth ride many expected at the start of 2023, but a change in ethos will hold them in good stead beyond this season alone.

Carlton fans might have to phone a friend if quizzed about the chaotic events of recent finals series since the AFL introduced the pre-finals bye.

The Blues, of course, have played finals only once since 2011 when arch rival Essendon was booted out of the major round for governance failures in 2013.

So their fans could be forgiven for taking their eyes off the ball come September.

Even that 2013 season should be a reminder anything can happen if you get a foot in the door – one of the most glorious elimination final performances against Richmond in front of 94,690 MCG fans.

Carlton famously embarked upon a 66-game rebuild in 2015, but it is what has happened since then that should be so mouth-watering for the Blues faithful.

Don’t listen to the pundits who tell you it is impossible to win the flag from outside the top four.

Here is the shock statistic that should give Carlton fans hope they can win their 17th AFL premiership.

Blues Marc Pittonet and Adam Saad after the win on Saturday night. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

The Bulldogs won the flag in 2016 from fifth spot. Picture: Toby Zerna

Since the introduction of the pre-finals bye in 2016, four top-four teams have been bundled out in straight sets and three teams, who didn’t finish in the top four, have made the grand final.

So teams are just as likely to make the grand final from outside the top four as they are to crash out in straight sets from inside the top four.

Clearly, the higher you finish, the better your prospects.

But, in three of seven seasons, a team finishing fifth to eighth has made the grand final.

The Dogs marched all the way to the flag from fifth in 2016 with four bruising finals wins.

GWS ran into a Richmond-shaped brick wall in 2019 from sixth, but only after knocking over the Dogs, Brisbane and Collingwood to get there.

The Western Bulldogs didn’t even get a pre-finals bye in 2021 – the bye was before the grand final – and they still found a way to win three straight games in September.

Adding more weight to that sample size is that Richmond won the 2020 premiership despite losing their first final to Brisbane, playing four successive weeks in what were, admittedly, shorter games, given Covid.

So all bets are off in an era so tight and so competitive that Hawthorn (2018), Brisbane (2019), Brisbane again (2021) and Melbourne (2022) have all lost in straight sets.

Charlie Curnow has booted 30 goals in the past eight games. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

The beauty of Carlton’s organic growth in its eight-week stretch is that this isn’t a boom-or-bust campaign.

They have done it despite significant injuries in every part of the ground, finally aware that team ethos of defence and pressure wins the day over a hero-based mentality.

Execute your role, help your teammates in every passage of play, let a weight of numbers overwhelm your foe.

So a team built over eight seasons to win finals should have more chances in coming years with Ed Curnow and Nic Newman the only players 30 and over on the list.

But consider the evidence in the eight-week stretch.

It is the perfect profile for September football and finals victories.

Tough and rough in the contest, defensively sound, a high-octane, high-scoring offence.

The individuals are getting it done – Jacob Weitering is the eighth-ranked defender in that time, behind the likes of James Sicily, Harris Andrews, Sam Taylor and Jack Buckley.

But he doesn’t need to be in beast mode as Brodie Kemp emerges and Caleb Marchbank gets it done, with Newman (ranked 12th as a general defender) taking the pressure off Adam Saad.

Again, the collective gets it done.

Matt Owies celebrates a goal against the Demons. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

Charlie Curnow has 30 goals in the past eight matches and eight direct score assists.

But the Blues have a quartet of small forwards with defined roles to lend assistance in Lachie Fogarty, Matt Owies, Jack Martin and Jesse Motlop.

David Cuningham has played in eight games this year for eight victories as an 80-20 forward mid, averaging four tackles and four score assists.

It won’t earn him a huge new contract, but he will stay on the list as another example Carlton is more than the sum of its parts.

And Tom De Koning has become a legitimate strike weapon as he and Marc Pittonet neutralised the Max Gawn-Brodie Grundy combo on Saturday night.

He had only one hit-out to advantage in the third quarter but, for the second straight week, he went crazy in the third quarter.

This time it was 10 possessions, nine of them contested, as a brash, big-bodied ruckman throwing himself at everything.

Carlton is built for September, also fourth in pressure in the competition.

And the pre-finals bye will give them time to make a smart decision on whether Harry McKay is not only available, but in their best forward line, given that six-week spell.

Who else outside the top four could challenge?

SYDNEY

Sydney is used to bucking trends.

It won the 2012 premiership over Hawthorn despite a 61-43 inside-50 imbalance as their defence weathered the Hawks storm.

So, John Longmire will believe his side can march all the way from 15th on the ladder mid-season to the Grand Final.

Despite the Swans running 15th for contested possession differential and 16th for clearance and inside 50 differential.

The Swans are shooting the lights out with spectacular ball movement and goal accuracy, ranking No. 1 in attack in the past five weeks, No. 2 for scores inside 50 and No. 2 for points from turnovers.

The stats gurus would say it’s an unsustainable brand come September, but Sydney still has games against Adelaide and Melbourne before it can even bank its finals spot.

But the Swans are white-hot, and won’t worry about having to win three games in a row to make the grand final.

Toby Greene in action during the 2019 grand final. Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos

GWS

Let’s face it, who doesn’t want to see Toby Greene in September?

GWS are another team that can build a head of steam if they get to the finals even after a horror loss to Port Adelaide off the back of an 11-point round 21 loss to Sydney.

But since round 13 the Giants are the second-best defence in the AFL and have conceded the fewest scores per entry of any side.

Clearly the last two weeks have hurt that profile as the Power plundered the Giants defence on Sunday night.

But the Giants have done it before – mounting a Grand Final challenge from outside the top four.

If they can make finals with wins over Essendon and Carlton they will be perfectly poised to take an early September scalp and be more than nuisance value in Adam Kingsley’s first finals campaign.

Originally published as Wreck-It Ralph: The stats the say Carlton can win the flag from outside top four