AFL Run Home: Where your team will finish as finals race heats up

The Bombers are still in the finals hunt after two pulsating wins, but will those wins actually haunt them in the run home? Check out where every side finishes in our predicted ladder.

The Blues look likely to finish fifth and lock in a home elimination final. Picture: Getty Images

Just two weeks remain in the home-and-away season as the race for top-four and top-eight spots continues to heat up.

Here’s who your team still has to play — and where they look likely to finish.

No Nick Daicos, no Darcy Moore, no worries. After a recent form slump, the Magpies rediscovered their mojo in an eight-point win over reigning premier Geelong on Friday night. Moore will miss the final two games of the home-and-away season with a hamstring, but it matters little now. The Pies are almost certain to finish as minor premiers for the first time since 2011 and lock in a home qualifying final at the MCG. Craig McRae’s side lost to the Lions at the Gabba back in round 4, but Brisbane is a different proposition on the road. A tired Essendon should not be a problem in the final round, either.

Collingwood forward Brody Mihocek found form again with five goals against Geelong. Picture: Michael Klein

Melbourne’s loss to Carlton on Saturday night was good news for the Lions. That result came shortly after Brisbane had held off a persistent Adelaide by six points to make for 10 successive wins at the Gabba this season and take back second spot on the ladder. If the Lions win both of their final two games – one of which is at the Gabba – they will hold second spot and have a home qualifying final. However, if they only snag one win then they could instead face Collingwood in Melbourne for a second time in three weeks in the first final. This Friday night’s clash with the Magpies is huge.

Talk about convincing. The Power snapped a four-game losing streak in style as they pushed aside Greater Western Sydney on Sunday, never headed in a 51-point triumph at the Adelaide Oval. It was exactly what coach Ken Hinkley had been searching for and sets his side up to surge back into the top two. If Brisbane loses one of its last two matches and Port Adelaide beats the Dockers and Tigers – which it will be favoured to do – the Power would secure themselves an all-important home qualifying final.

Ken Hinkley’s Port Adelaide side snapped a four-game losing streak in style on the weekend. Picture: Getty Images

Had a couple of umpiring decisions gone their way late on Saturday night, the Demons would have pinched victory against Carlton. But they didn’t and Melbourne has now lost its top-two spot – potentially for good. Simon Goodwin’s team sits a game behind both second-placed Brisbane and third-placed Port Adelaide with two rounds to go. To be any chance of taking back second spot, they must win their next two and will need both the Lions and Power to lose at least one more game. That’s wishful thinking.

Momentum is a powerful thing. Just ask Geelong, which won the premiership last season after entering September on a 13-game winning streak. The Blues currently have eight successive wins under their belts and look a very real chance to make that 10 on the trot in the next two weeks. Carlton thumped Gold Coast by 59 points to start its current winning streak in round 14 and beat Greater Western Sydney on its home turf back in round 3. If they hold on to fifth spot, the Blues will be hard to beat in a home elimination final at the MCG. From there, anything can happen.

Carlton captain Patrick Cripps has helped lead his side to eight-straight wins. Picture: Michael Klein

The Saints are still hanging in there and were never troubled in a convincing 36-point win over Richmond on Sunday. Their pressure and effort has been sky-high in recent weeks and it will need to be again over the next fortnight as the side eyes a daunting run home. One more win should be enough to book a return to finals for the first time since 2020. However, the Saints have won just one of their past eight matches against the Cats and the Lions haven’t been beaten at the Gabba this season. There is every chance St Kilda could miss on percentage if they can’t pull off an upset.

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Last year’s runners up sat 15th on the ladder after round 17. Since then they have won five games on the trot to surge back into September contention. The Swans didn’t have it easy against the Gold Coast Suns in a seesawing game on Saturday afternoon, but did what they needed to do with a 24-point win. The last two games are problematic though for a team that still needs one more win to make the finals cut. The Crows hold a 9-2 record at Adelaide Oval this year and the Demons pumped the Swans by 50 points back in round 3. As brave as it has been in the second half of the season, Sydney might have left its run too late.

Sydney is in the top-eight with two rounds to go, but will it stay there? Picture: Getty Images

Has there been a more frustrating team than the Bulldogs this year? A team that looks so damaging one week often looks helpless the next. Luke Beveridge’s side simply wasn’t tough enough for long enough against Hawthorn in Launceston on Sunday and was made to pay with a three-point loss. Since round 11, the Bulldogs have won just four of 11 matches. That’s damning. They’ll put the Eagles to the sword this weekend, but you couldn’t count on them toppling Geelong at home in the final round. Even without a win over the Cats, the Bulldogs should make the cut if they take down the Eagles. However, they would be relying on a few other results going to script.

What were supposed to be two easy wins over the past fortnight were anything but, with the Bombers fighting for their lives to get over the line against bottom-two sides North Melbourne and West Coast. Essendon looks tired and that does not bode well for them when you consider their tricky run home. A poor percentage means the Bombers would likely need to upset both GWS and Collingwood to play finals. It’s hard to see that happening.

Essendon has been very unconvincing in its past two wins. Picture: Michael Klein

After getting on seven-game winning streak, the Giants have lost their past two matches and now face an uphill battle to play finals. A 51-point loss to Port Adelaide on Sunday dropped GWS from eighth to 10th on the ladder. They could still finish as high as sixth if they can win their last two matches. That final game of the home-and-away season against a rampaging Carlton could well decide the Giants’ fate.

The task for the reigning premier to return to finals got a little tougher with an eight-point loss to Collingwood last Friday night. But given the Cats play two teams around them in the run home, their fate remains in their own hands. Win both matches and they could climb as high as sixth. One slip up from here though and it’s all over. That means Saturday night against the Saints at Marvel Stadium is make or break.

Isaac Smith’s Geelong has some work to do, but can still finish as high as sixth if it can win its final two matches. Picture: Michael Klein

The Crows were brave in a six-point away loss to Brisbane at the Gabba on Saturday. While that defeat might have left them a game outside the top-eight with two games to play, Matthew Nicks’ side remains a danger. That’s because they have gone 9-2 at Adelaide Oval this year and get the Swans there this week. That is a genuine eight-point game, given Sydney is one of only two current top-eight sides which Adelaide has the ability to knock out. If the Crows can take down the Swans it would make for an intriguing final round. If Sydney was to suffer another loss to Melbourne in round 24 and Adelaide took care of bottom side West Coast, the Crows could finish as high as seventh. Adelaide holds a superior percentage to some other teams chasing one of the last spots in the top-eight, including the Western Bulldogs and St Kilda.

The mighty have fallen. For just the second time in the past seven years, Richmond won’t be featuring in finals. The Tigers were sparked into life when caretaker coach Andrew McQualter first took over, but the air has well and truly been let out of the tyres in recent weeks. In the last nine quarters that Richmond has played, it has been outscored by a combined 119 points on its way to three-straight losses. It’s not like a falling ladder position is even good news from a draft perspective. The Tigers’ first-round pick is in the hands of Greater Western Sydney.

Richmond has dropped off since an early spike under caretaker coach Andrew McQualter. Picture: Michael Klein

There’s no doubt it has been a disappointing season for the Dockers, but at least they have found a little something over the past three weeks. Fremantle put its foot to West Coast’s throat in the derby on Saturday night, kicking 17 unanswered goals on its way to a 101-point belting. The Dockers are a chance to snag another win or two to round out the year, which would give them something to build on as they search for a return to September next year.

The Suns let their guard down in the third quarter against Sydney on Saturday and the Swans made them pay as they slammed on six goals to two for the term to set up a 24-point victory. As much as they haven’t been stringing together wins, the Suns have shown some positive signs in the second half of the season. Gold Coast should add one more win to its tally against North Melbourne in the final round, which would mean they equal their 10-win season of 2022.

Gold Coast Suns could still equal their 10-win tally from last year. Picture: Getty Images

The Hawks are the best 16th placed team we’ve seen for some time and continue to build nicely under second-year coach Sam Mitchell. Their progression has been clear throughout the year and was further franked by an inspired win over the Western Bulldogs in Launceston on Sunday. Most thought this team would go backwards from its eight-win season last year following the departures of some senior players. However, the Hawks need just one more win to equal last year’s tally – and you’d give them every chance to do so.

The Kangaroos have found a little hop in their step the past two weeks since coach Alastair Clarkson’s return, but haven’t quite been able to follow through on promising starts. The losing streak now sits at 19 matches, which Clarkson would be desperate to snap before season’s end. However, the Tigers at the MCG is never easy and the Suns beat the Roos by 43 points back in round 6.

North Melbourne has been competitive since coach Alastair Clarkson’s return two weeks ago. Picture: Michael Klein

Kane Cornes says this club is officially an embarrassment and it’s hard to argue otherwise. West Coast suffered its fifth loss by 100 points or more this season in the derby against Fremantle on Saturday night. That equalled Greater Western Sydney’s records from 2012 and 2013, when the Giants also lost five games by 100 points of more in each of those seasons. The bad news is there looks like being more pain ahead, with finals aspirants the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide still to come.

Originally published as AFL Run Home: Where your team will finish as finals race heats up