Every club’s run home, final ladder position predicted with four rounds to go
A premiership fancy is facing the shock prospect of missing finals as big questions loom over a number of top-eight contenders. See our predictions — and make your own call here.
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Nine doesn’t go into eight as an intriguing final month of the season awaits.
Here’s where we think your side will finish — and the key contests which will determine the finals make-up.
DO YOUR OWN PREDICTED LADDER, THEN SCROLL DOWN TO SEE OURS
1. COLLINGWOOD
Played: 19, Won: 15, Lost: 4, Percentage: 135
The Pies snapped a two-game losing streak as Nick Daicos cut through Richmond on Sunday. It leaves Craig McRae’s side atop of the ladder for now – a position it has held for the past 11 weeks – but some work is still required if the side wants to claim the minor premiership. Collingwood might need to win all four games, with the Adelaide clash key. The Crows are one game behind the Magpies for now, but have a superior percentage if they can win their last four. Jordan De Goey (19 disposals) and Bobby Hill (13 disposals, three goals) returned through the VFL on Saturday night in what looms as a further boost for the final month and beyond.
2. ADELAIDE
Played: 19, Won: 14, Lost: 5, Percentage: 146
The Crows finished 15th last year. Could they claim the minor premiership this year? It looks a good chance, given Adelaide won’t be losing to West Coast or North Melbourne and gets clashes against fellow top-nine sides Hawthorn and Collingwood at home. Matthew Nicks’ side has gone 10-1 at Adelaide Oval this year, its only loss coming to Geelong during Gather Round. The Crows have lost away games to Hawthorn (three points) and Collingwood (10 points) this year, but if they can turn around both of those results at home then their superior percentage will see them finish above the Magpies by round 24.
3. BRISBANE LIONS
Played: 19, Won: 13, Lost: 5, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 110.8
The reigning premiers couldn’t miss finals, could they? If Brisbane was to score only one win from its next three games, there’s a possibility that the round 24 Hawthorn clash could decide the Lions’ finals fate. Chris Fagan’s side has already lost to Collingwood this year, going down by 52 points at the Gabba at Easter. Brisbane hasn’t played Fremantle since round 1 last year, but suffered a 23-point loss to the Dockers in Perth on that occasion. So, top-four hopes are fading and it looks like taking at least two more wins just to make the top-eight after the weekend’s capitulation to Gold Coast.
4. GEELONG
Played: 19, Won: 13, Lost: 6, Percentage: 134.2
It seems to happen almost every year. Geelong won its last 13 home-and-away games in its premiership year of 2022 and went 7-2 from its last nine games last year. Chris Scott’s side has now won its past two games and should make that six on the trot by September. The Cats scored the biggest win of the season as they belted North Melbourne by 101 points on Saturday night, with Jeremy Cameron kicking 11 goals. With four more bottom-nine opponents to come, a top-four finish looks certain. The interest now lies in if Cameron can continue his hot streak and record the first 100-goal season since Lance Franklin in 2008. Cameron’s currently on 69 goals – 21 clear atop of the Coleman Medal leaderboard.
5. HAWTHORN
Played: 19, Won: 13, Lost: 6, Percentage: 119.9
The Hawks were a class above a struggling Carlton last Thursday night. But can they take their game up another gear for a difficult final month? Sam Mitchell’s side should beat Melbourne, who they defeated by 35 points back in round 9. But the three other games are against top-nine opponents and the Hawks need to pinch at least one to qualify for September. Hawthorn beat Adelaide by three points in Launceston in round 14, but a rematch at Adelaide Oval will be a tougher task given the Crows hold a 10-1 record at home this season. Collingwood and Brisbane won’t be any easier, either. Hawthorn lost to Brisbane by 33 points at the MCG in round 11 and gets the Lions at the Gabba in the final round. The Hawks were also touched up by the Magpies in round 12, to the tune of 51 points. After making a 7-2 start to the season, there’s every chance last year’s semi-finalists miss the September cut.
6. GWS GIANTS
Played: 19, Won: 13, Lost: 6, Percentage: 118.4
After a shaky start, the Giants recovered to soar past Sydney last Friday night. But there are still a couple of tricky fixtures in the run home, starting with the Western Bulldogs on Thursday. Toby Greene’s suspension and fresh injuries for Josh Kelly and Jack Buckley (both calf) won’t help there, against a side which the Giants lost to by 32 points in Canberra in round 7. GWS beat Gold Coast by seven points at GIANTS Stadium in round 15, but the Suns have gone 5-1 at home this season. Wins over North Melbourne and St Kilda should be enough for GWS to qualify for a third-straight finals campaign, though.
7. FREMANTLE
Played: 19, Won: 13, Lost: 6, Percentage: 111.7
Since starting the season 4-5, the Dockers have become one of the form teams of the competition. They have won nine of their past 10 matches, including a 49-point triumph over West Coast in the derby on Saturday. Hayden Young has made an immediate impact since returning two weeks ago and will have a key role to play in a final month where only two more wins are required to see Fremantle qualify for finals for the first time since 2022. The Dockers beat the Bulldogs by 16 points in Perth in round 4, but suffered a 61-point loss to St Kilda in their only other match at Marvel Stadium this year.
8. GOLD COAST
Played: 18, Won: 12, Lost: 6, Percentage: 119.5
Get the party poppers out, Suns fans. Your side is headed for a finals debut this year. A commanding 66-point win over Brisbane on Saturday was another scalp in ‘big boy month’, coming two weeks after Gold Coast toppled ladder-leader Collingwood. Damien Hardwick’s side only faces one fellow top-nine side – GWS – from here and gets the Giants at People First Stadium where they have gone 5-1 this year. Win at least four of their last five matches and the Suns will finish top-four, which would be a remarkable rise after a 13th-placed finish in 2024.
9. WESTERN BULLDOGS
Played: 19, Won: 11, Lost: 8, Percentage: 132.6
The Bulldogs had no trouble taking down a struggling Essendon in a Friday night belting. They would not have taken too much out of that training drill, aside from some form and confidence after the likes of Marcus Bontempelli, Sam Darcy and Aaron Naughton starred. Luke Beveridge will hope his side can keep riding high, given they need at least three more wins to feature in finals. The Bulldogs should get those over the next three weeks, but a slip-up could make the final-round clash with Fremantle very interesting.
10. SYDNEY
Played: 19, Won: 9, Lost: 10, Percentage: 93.9
They remained a slim finals hope last week, but the Swans are out of the race now after a 44-point defeat to GWS on Friday night. They should be too good for a depleted Essendon this Saturday and will also be favoured to knock off West Coast in the final round. But it’s hard to see them giving Brisbane or Geelong too much trouble, despite the Swans showing some better form over the second half of the season.
11. PORT ADELAIDE
Played: 19, Won: 8, Lost: 11, Percentage: 83.2
There was talk last week about whether Ken Hinkley could get his side up for one last Showdown. In the end, the Power were showed up in a disappointing 98-point loss. Hinkley’s rein could peter out from here as Port Adelaide faces a difficult final month. They lost to Geelong by 76 points in round 10 – at Adelaide Oval – and fell to Fremantle by 49 points in round 11. But there’s hope that Hinkley could snag one more win. The Power did beat Carlton by 50 points in round 16, so they will give themselves a chance in that rematch at Marvel Stadium.
12. CARLTON
Played: 19, Won: 7, Lost: 12, Percentage: 93.3
It’s been much of the same over the past couple of months for Carlton, who are just not much good. Over the past five weeks they have averaged just 65 points a game. That doesn’t win you too many matches. Michael Voss’ side will be major underdogs against Carlton and Gold Coast over the next fortnight and we can’t forget that they lost to Port Adelaide by 50 points back in round 16. The Blues should take care of arch rival Essendon in the final round, but even still it will be their worst campaign since 2021 and a big step backwards on the past two years.
13. MELBOURNE
Played: 19, Won: 6, Lost: 13, Percentage: 90
The Demons lost the unlosable game to St Kilda on Sunday, coughing up a 46-point lead at three-quarter-time to fall by six points. But surely they will bounce back against a one-win West Coast at Marvel Stadium this Saturday. If they can’t beat the Eagles, there’s something seriously wrong and the heat will be turned up even higher on coach Simon Goodwin. This weekend looks to be the last genuine chance to secure a seventh win, given three top-nine opponents await after that.
14. ST KILDA
Played: 19, Won: 6, Lost: 13, Percentage: 86.4
We’re still not sure how the Saints pulled off that comeback against Melbourne on Sunday, after being 46 points down at the final change. All hail, Nasiah. Coming on the back of six successive losses, that win showed that the Saints are still capable when they get going and they should take that momentum and confidence into the next few weeks. St Kilda should beat the three sides below them – North Melbourne, Richmond and Essendon – as they continue to find some growth to take into next season.
15. ESSENDON
Played: 18, Won: 6, Lost: 12, Percentage: 71.7
It’s been a year from hell for the Bombers where nothing has gone right and injuries continue to mount. The latest blow was another hamstring for Jordan Ridley out of last Friday night’s 93-point loss to the Western Bulldogs. You sense the end of the season can’t come quickly enough for frustrated coach Brad Scott, whose sides will be rank outsiders in each of their final five matches.
STEELY GREEN, my goodness! 😱 pic.twitter.com/AnmJfmTxVP
— Richmond FC 🯠(@Richmond_FC) July 27, 2025
16. RICHMOND
Played: 19, Won: 5, Lost: 14, Percentage: 68.1
There’s been some positive signs for the Tigers over the past month and there were some more on Sunday before Adem Yze’s side was ultimately overrun by ladder-leader Collingwood in the second half. It’s not about wins and losses this year, but is instead about individual growth in the young group. That said, Richmond will be eyeing the North Melbourne game as another good chance to chalk up a win. The Tigers lost to the Kangaroos by four points in round 10, but have been playing much better football over the past month or so.
17. NORTH MELBOURNE
Played: 19, Won: 4, Lost: 14, Drawn: 1, Percentage: 72.8
A 101-point loss to Geelong on Saturday night was deplorable as the Kangaroos’ season went from bad to worse. Fans thought their side would be past such poor performances this year, but here we are again. North Melbourne has now been outscored by 302 points across their past five matches and have conceded 119 points of more in four of those games. They still can’t defend and it’s a serious problem for third-year coach Alastair Clarkson.
18. WEST COAST
Played: 19, Won: 1, Lost: 18, Percentage: 63.5
It won’t go down as the worst season in AFL history, but West Coast’s 2025 campaign will be the worst for a long time. There’s still only been one win recorded so far and you’d be brave to tip any more triumphs in the final four weeks. A 49-point loss to West Coast in the derby on Saturday was the latest blow and a few more hefty defeats could come which would further tank an already lowly percentage. Fixtures against Adelaide and the Western Bulldogs could get very ugly indeed.
Originally published as Every club’s run home, final ladder position predicted with four rounds to go
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