Which players are flying and which are flailing ahead of the finals?
Exclusive Champion Data stats reveal which players have lifted their ratings in the past month and who has gone the other way. Which stars need to lift at your club?
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What is form anyway?
Collingwood coach Craig McRae said recently he didn’t believe it was real, and what happened in the past doesn’t necessarily predict the future.
“I don’t worry about form. What is form? A player is out of form, he does one good contest, he’s back in form, that’s it,” he quipped after a loss to Brisbane last month.
Whether form is real or not, some players will be feeling better heading into the finals than others.
The big men are firing, with GWS pair Jake Riccardi and Jesse Hogan among the in-form players, while Dan McStay, Rowan Marshall and Hayden McLean are all peaking.
There are plenty of worries for the contenders, with Josh Dunkley among the players to have the biggest drop in Champion Data’s player ratings in the last month.
Clayton Oliver joins him, while three of GWS’ best player are battling at the wrong time of the year.
The player ratings system creates a catch-all number for each player’s performance in every game, with those that win the ball and use it well producing high numbers.
Whether McRae’s form theory is right or not will be revealed in September.
Last year, Patrick Dangerfield saw a drop in form before leading Geelong to a flag and winning the Gary Ayres Medal as the best player in the finals, while Bulldog Aaron Naughton was also battling and didn’t kick a goal as his side was bundled out.
Check out which players are flying and who is falling before finals.
FIRST QUALIFYING FINAL
COLLINGWOOD
Does this help or hinder McRae’s selection headaches before the qualifying final?
McRae has to sort out his big men situation with Mason Cox, Darcy Cameron and Dan McStay potentially fighting for two spots.
Well, McStay is firing and has kicked 13 goals since round 18 while being a super consistent member of the forward half.
Cameron is battling and has looked off the boil lately, having taken just eight marks with two of those contested in the last month.
McRae believes Cameron and Cox both play better when in the same side but a tough call is coming.
Steele Sidebottom hasn’t been as his best since returning from a knee injury and after averaging 22.7 disposals in the first 10 weeks of the season, he has averaged 19 in his past three games.
MELBOURNE
How much of a target is on Clayton Oliver’s back?
The ball magnet has only been OK since coming back from his hamstring injury and was tagged out of most of the game by Hawthorn’s Finn Maginness in round 23.
No doubt Collingwood will have a plan to kerb Oliver but if he fires he can carry the Dees to glory this September.
Max Gawn’s red-hot form in the middle of the season has tapered somewhat and he has had less than 20 disposals in three of his last four games.
With Darcy Cameron faltering, he could be set for a big bounce-back in the qualifying final.
Winger Ed Langdon is in top form ahead of a battle against either Josh Daicos or Steele Sidebottom.
FIRST ELIMINATION FINAL
CARLTON
The role players have lifted in a big way for the Blues, with Jack Martin likely in career-best form, averaging 12.8 disposals a game in the last month and having kicked at least a goal in his last six games.
Defender Nic Newman has been firing and could be set to take on Swan star Isaac Heeney, while Zac Fisher’s recall and move to half back as been a huge success.
A 14-disposal effort while playing sore against Gold Coast in round 23 lowered skipper Patrick Cripps’ numbers.
SYDNEY
No wonder Sydney locked Hayden McLean away on a big contract recently, the forward is in career-best form and one of the most in-form goalkickers in the game heading into finals.
The accurate Swan booted 11.1 in the month before finals, while also chipping in in the ruck.
Experienced pair Jake Lloyd and Luke Parker have fallen off, with Lloyd usually super consistent output dropping somewhat, while a 12-disposal effort against Adelaide hurt Parker’s numbers.
SECOND ELIMINATION FINAL
ST KILDA
What an unusual career Zine Cordy has.
The premiership Dog forward has been all over the place as a gap filler and has done an outstanding job stepping in for Dougal Howard in defence for St Kilda with Howard nursing a sore wrist.
Could Cordy keep Howard out of the team when he is fit?
Ruck Rowan Marshall could be a gamewinner against the Giants and is flying at the right time of the year.
Reliable defender Jimmy Webster might be the man for Toby Greene, so he will hope to turn his form around, while Jack Higgins has kicked 4.7 in his final four games of the year.
If he can kick straight and bag four or five, he could push the Saints past the Giants.
GWS GIANTS
Alarm bells must be ringing for the Giants with three of the club’s most important players low on form at the wrong time of the year.
Sam Taylor has battled a sore hamstring late in the year and his availability shapes as one of the stories of the first week of finals.
In a GWS loss to Sydney, Joel Amartey and Hayden McLean combined for six goals before Todd Marshall booted three a week after for Port Adelaide.
But Taylor’s defensive win-loss rate remains strong as he faces a huge assignment against Max King.
No doubt Toby Greene will take up plenty of Ross Lyon’s time in the preparation for an elimination final and his decrease may come down to an early substitute against Essendon in round 23.
Midfielder Josh Kelly will be essential against the Saints and his clearance work has dropped away in recent weeks, having averaged 1.8 a game, well down on his season average of 4.2.
The good news for the Giants is with the talls, as Jesse Hogan’s monster game against Essendon saw his numbers jump, while Jake Riccardi is in career-best form – nobody has had a higher percentage change than Riccardi – and Harry Himmelberg has covered somewhat for Taylor’s dip down back.
SECOND QUALIFYING FINAL
BRISBANE
Recruit Josh Dunkley has been a huge driver in Brisbane’s engine room since joining the club from the Western Bulldogs but tapered away in the final month of the home-and-away season with three games of less than 20 touches.
In 11 finals in his career, Dunkley’s raw numbers drop on his career output too, with his disposal average dropping from 22.7 to 19.6.
The midfielder’s defensive work has been a crucial part of the Lions this year and doesn’t always show up in these numbers.
In better news for the Brisbane midfield, Hugh McCluggage has rounded into form at the right time and big games from Oscar McInerney against Collingwood and St Kilda has him alongside Rowan Marshall as the form ruck in the game heading into finals.
PORT ADELAIDE
The tale of the two Power running mates.
Zak Butters has had a huge month, roaring to a top-three finish in the AFLPA MVP and the player’s most courageous award.
Butters ramped up his playing time in the final rounds before finals and collected 31.3 disposals per game while lifting clearances.
But his good mate Connor Rozee has dropped his output by 33 per cent according to player ratings.
Rozee booted 19 goals in his first 18 games this year but snagged just one from round 21 onwards and his inside-50 average dropped to five per game.
A big, 33 disposal, one goal game in round 24 against Richmond should hold him in good stead for the qualifying final against Brisbane.
Defenders Miles Bergman and Ryan Burton finished the regular season well, while Lachie Jones fell away and Todd Marshall’s impact fell away.
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