SuperCoach round 4 trade guide: Fantasy Freako’s opposition analysis plus top targets

Predicting who will put up a big KFC SuperCoach score each week is one of the biggest challenges in the game. And Champion Data guru Fantasy Freako is on the case. Plus trade, captain tips.

Injuries haven’t stopped and this round it’s Darcy Cameron that needs to be replaced. If you went from Max Gawn to Cameron, then you can count yourself to be extremely unlucky!

As we look ahead to the coming weeks, we are now able to analyse some early trends and although the sample size is just three games we can already see a few things develop from a numbers point of view.

Despite boasting the best defence in the competition, St Kilda has conceded more disposals than any other team. In fact, they have conceded 407 per game with the next most being the Dockers with 381. St Kilda has also given up more marks than any other club.

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On the flip side, despite having the worst defence in the league, Port Adelaide has given up the fewest disposals – conceding just 316 per game. The Power have also conceded an average of just 64 marks – also the fewest.

So, what does this all mean and how can we use these numbers to our advantage in KFC SuperCoach?

The disposal number on its own doesn’t mean much, but if we break the disposals down into different categories then maybe we can forecast and base some of our decisions on this, whether it be future trades or captain choices.

If we use 15 disposals as the benchmark then it’s no surprise that St Kilda has conceded the most of anyone, with an average of 15.3 players per round reaching 15 disposals against the Saints this season. Melbourne on the other hand has conceded 15-plus disposals to 9.7 players per game – ranked No.1 defensively.

If we use 20 disposals as the benchmark – then once again St Kilda has conceded the most, but the fewest mantle goes to Port Adelaide, with just 4.3 players per game reaching 20 disposals against them. The Saints come up against the Suns this round, which could bode well for Touk Miller, while the Power face the Swans, so the likes of Luke Parker and Chad Warner may find it difficult to win huge disposal numbers based on these trends.

Finally, the 25-plus bracket sees the Saints again concede the most, but the Magpies are the stingiest defensively. In fact, Tim Taranto is the only midfielder to reach 25 disposals against Collingwood this season.

Looking ahead to this week, Lachie Neale and Josh Dunkley come up against Collingwood on Thursday night, so keep that in mind before handing either player a VC or C armband.

Josh Dunkley could find the going tough against the Magpies. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images)

FREAKO’S ROOKIE WATCH

It won’t be long until we can swing Harry Sheezel into our defence as the first DPP changes aren’t far away. He continues to pile on the scores, adding 120 to his season tally in round 3 and booming in price by a whopping $106,200 along the way.

Sheezel ranks inside the top 10 in the competition for disposals, effective kicks, long kicks, uncontested possessions, uncontested marks and rebound-50s.

The second-biggest price rise went to Kade Chandler, increasing by $82,900. He scored 90 on the weekend against the Swans after kicking three goals and having two score assists. He ranks equal-first at the Demons for tackles inside 50 and second overall for scoreboard impact.

Reuben Ginbey had the next biggest rise, booming by $75,600. Unlike Sheezel, who has won plenty of the ball, Ginbey’s defensive play has been the backbone of his scoring – leading the AFL for tackles with 26. In fact, his tackle efficiency of 81.8 per cent is the third-best of the top-50 in the AFL for tackle attempts behind Touk Miller and Clayton Oliver.

Fantasy Freako's top rookie picks for round 4.

Looking ahead to this round’s bubble boys, Swan Joel Amartey is set for a handsome price rise after his next match after scoring 122 and 78 respectively in his two games. He isn’t basement priced, and John Longmire will make changes to the team after being humbled by the Demons and there is some chance that Hayden McLean comes in for Amartey – so keep a close eye on team news.

Will Phillips was the main beneficiary of the late withdrawal of Luke Davies-Uniacke and suspension of Jy Simpkin in round 3, attending a team-high 17 centre bounces against the Hawks. He scored 78 points from 16 disposals, nine contested possessions and five tackles. Simpkin will be back this round and Davies-Uniacke should also overcome a tight calf and return and, as a result, Phillips may not be afforded as many centre bounce minutes in round 4. Irrespective, if he keeps his place then he looms as a handy downgrade option.

Best of luck for Round 4 and trade wisely!

Fantasy Freako's top captain picks for round 4.

Trade guide: Ruck replacements and top trade targets

– Tim Michell and Al Paton

What will 2023 throw at us next?

KFC SuperCoaches have been hit with a barrage of bad luck in the first three weeks of the season ranging from Rory Laird’s lowest score in a decade to late outs, selection shocks, subs and injuries to popular picks like Jack Steele, Liam Jones and Josh Kelly.

And spare a thought for players who had to cop a Max Gawn zero then traded him to Darcy Cameron, who was injured the very next week.

But there has barely been a player in the game who hasn’t been hit by one or more unforeseen setbacks, so we are all still in the race.

A lot can change in a short time in KFC SuperCoach, hopefully including our run of luck.

Thankfully, there are still plenty of trades in the bank, so it’s all about the decisions we make from here to improve our teams.

As Ross Lyon would say, control the controllables. And based on how the Saints are going in 2023 despite a shocking injury toll, who are we to question Ross?

So, here are the best trade targets for round 4.

Tim English (WB) $616,800 RUC

Unless you are among the 14,000 coaches who traded in English for round 3, or the 32,000 who had already selected the Bulldogs ruckman, you’ve got a big problem.

English has started the season with scores of 134, 134 and 139, marking himself as one of the must-have players of 2023.

He added almost $36,000 to his price tag after round 3 but at less than $620k, you can make a decent argument that English is still underpriced. Yes, it is more than you would have had to pay at any point last year. But last year, there was also the issue of Stefan Martin being on the Western Bulldogs list. English has attended 90 per cent of centre bounces in the opening three rounds, with Rory Lobb and Sam Darcy attending just 6 per cent. That has resulted in career highs for disposals, marks, tackles and hitouts this season. At his current scoring rate, he might not just be the No.1 ruck of 2023, but the No.1 player in KFC SuperCoach. He looks a bona fide captaincy option every week and he has several favourable match-ups in the next 4-6 weeks.

Tim English has started KFC SuperCoach with three scores above 130.

The only knock on English has been his durability. He started last season in similar style then succumbed to hamstring and concussion issues, he has only once played more than 20 games in a season and this is the first year he has shouldered the ruck load on his own. The other issue is finding the money to grab him right now. But waiting for an off game or an injury could be a painful watch.

Darcy Cameron owners face the most immediate problem, with the bargain Pies ruckman set to miss 4-6 weeks with a knee injury. He also increased in value, but it will cost $120,000 to get to English in one trade. Not many will have that amount sitting in the bank, so it would require a second trade – potentially downgrading a disappointing premium like Sam Docherty to a cheaper option in better form, or cashing in a starting pick to a rookie on the bubble this week – see some options for both scenarios below.

Another possibility would be trading in two mid-pricers such as Jacob Hopper and Will Setterfield for English and a rookie, but both Setterfield and Hopper have weeks’ worth of cash generation left.

Brodie Grundy (Melb) $509,300 RUC

Just when some had written him off as a spent force in KFC SuperCoach, Grundy posted his first ton since being injured in round 6 last year. He was enormous against the Swans, finishing with 25 hitouts, 21 disposals, three tackles, five marks and 11 contested possessions. That added up to 143 points, Grundy’s highest score since round 7, 2021. Grundy’s draw without Max Gawn (presumably for the next month) reads: West Coast, Essendon, Richmond, North Melbourne. He has scored 118, 110 and 134 in his last three against the Eagles, and Bailey Williams has conceded 130-plus scores in the past two weeks to Matt Flynn and Sean Darcy. Grundy’s modest start resulted in a small price drop after his third game but he should make cash until Gawn returns, the only issue is what happens to him after that. Could you trade one Melbourne ruckman to another after Gawn drops in value?

Brodie Grundy was back to his best against Sydney. Picture: Morgan Hancock/Getty Images

Toby Nankervis (Rich) $553,500 RUC

If you can’t afford English or Jarrod Witts and Grundy is a bit too risky, the Tigers ruckman is the No. 3 ruck scorer this season, posting 112, 118 and 124 in his three matches. With Ivan Soldo injured, Richmond looks set to persist with Samson Ryan as a tall forward and part-time ruck support, but he’s only taking a sliver of Nank’s ruck minutes. Nankervis isn’t a superstar tap ruckman but accumulates points with his lion-hearted work rate. He had 20 disposals and seven tackles against the Magpies, taking his tackle tally to 22 after three games.

Samson Ryan (Rich) $123,900 RUC/FWD | Break Even: -28

The slippery conditions on Friday night didn’t suit the second-gamer, who was subbed off at halftime with just 27 points to his name. He scored 72 the week before but that was off the back of three goals from just six kicks, so it’s probably unrealistic to expect scores like that every week. He’s on the bubble this week if he’s selected for his third game against the Bulldogs on Saturday, but shapes as a bench option only in the ruck or forward line and not someone you want to start on field.

Oscar Steene (left) might be called on to solve Collingwood’s ruck crisis. Picture: Michael Klein

Oscar Steene (Coll) $102,400 RUC

The Pies may be forced to play the pre-season SSP signing – who was plucked from the SANFL – to solve their ruck crisis. The 19-year-old South Australian has jumped from No.4 to No.1 in the Pies’ ruck pecking order after injuries to Darcy Cameron, Mason Cox (ribs) and Aiden Begg (back), who is still 2-3 weeks away from a return in the VFL. But the developing ruckman was smashed in the VFL by former Swan Sam Naismith, who recorded 61 hitouts to Steene’s 17 on Saturday. On that performance alone the Pies may opt to play a makeshift ruck division of Dan McStay and Ash Johnson. Even if he is picked, it is worth waiting until he is on the bubble before jumping on.

Will Phillips (NM) $158,300 MID | Break Even: -52

Remember when Phillips was the first rookie chosen in KFC SuperCoach teams? OK, maybe second after Will Ashcroft. Alastair Clarkson threw us a curve ball when he selected Phillips as the sub in round 1, although he came on with enough time to win 17 disposals and eight contested possessions. He got his opportunity on Saturday against Hawthorn with Luke Davies-Uniacke injured and Jy Simpkin suspended, scoring 78 KFC SuperCoach points from 16 disposals (and five tackles). The issue is he’s no certainty to be chosen for round 4 if Simpkin and Davies-Uniacke return. The next time he plays he’s set to rocket in price. Expect him to be a popular swap from Finn Callaghan if he’s chosen.

Can Will Phillips get an extended run in the senior side? Picture: Michael Klein

Clayton Oliver (Melb) $701,100 MID

OK. We know you don’t need to be told that any good KFC SuperCoach team needs Oliver. But the whole idea – at least in theory – of leaving him out of starting sides was that we could grab him for closer to $600k as a first upgrade. Forget that. Oliver’s price is above $700k now, he’s scored 113, 135 and 156 and Melbourne’s draw seriously opens up in the next month. Who’s going to stop Oliver from the injury-hit Eagles? Then it’s Essendon, Richmond (who leak points to midfielders) and North Melbourne. If you’re serious about being a KFC SuperCoach contender this year you need Oliver. Soon. So, if you’re not dealing with the Cameron injury and have two trades to grab him, this is the week. Then do yourself a favour and captain him for the next four weeks.

Will Day (Haw) $402,600 DEF

If there were any doubts about Day’s ability to transition from a half-back to midfield, they are surely gone now. After a quiet first game, he has produced KFC SuperCoach scores of 98 and 139 in the past two rounds. It would be understandable if some coaches deemed this point chasing, but with a Break Even of -6 Day is set to make serious cash in the next two weeks and could end up as the perfect stepping stone to a fallen premium (think Tom Stewart if he doesn’t score 170 again in round 4). Day is likely to gain DPP after round 5 and had a game-high 29 disposals in Saturday’s victory over North Melbourne. That’s now three consecutive games of at least 22 disposals for Day to start the season. Well done if you started him. If you didn’t and are keen, it’s this week or never. He’ll just be too expensive after round 4 to be a trade-in option.

Will Day has posted big scores the past two weeks. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

Luke Davies-Uniacke (NM) $557,400 MID

Taking advantage of the misfortune of others might not be for some. But for others, all is fair in love and KFC SuperCoach. Davies-Uniacke would have been above $600k this week had he not been literally a last-minute withdrawal against Hawthorn. If you’re in the latter camp, you get a second chance to grab a player with scores of 143 and 155 and who was the No.1 scorer after two rounds. Many coaches had other issues to deal with last week and had to pass on LDU as a result. If that was the case, don’t make the same mistake twice. Although you should be mindful he’ll get attention from Ed Curnow in round 4.

Jack Bowes (Geel) $277,500 DEF | Break Even: -10

A quieter performance in round 3 has someone questioning his KFC SuperCoach credentials, but what if you have no choice to free up cash? If your bank is low and you’re trying to get from Darcy Cameron to Tim English or Jarrod Witts, dumping an underperforming defender for Bowes is likely the way to do it. His score of 61 on Sunday was inflated by a goal, only tallying 10 disposals against his former team Gold Coast. Chris Scott might make the decision for KFC SuperCoaches anyway if he gets ruthless at the selection table after a 0-3 start to Geelong’s premiership defence. Is he a perfect option? No, not by any means. But if it gets you to English without a significant defensive sacrifice, you might have no choice. Just hope he produces more of the sort of games we saw against Carlton than against the Suns.

Giants defender Jack Buckley. Picture: Matt King/AFL Photos/Getty Images

Jack Buckley (GWS) $275,900 DEF | Break Even: -40

If you hadn’t heard of him three rounds ago, you have now. Buckley averaged 62 across 15 games in 2021 before missing all of last season with an ACL injury. Understandably, that made the idea of paying more than $200k at the start of the year too risky for most coaches. If you did jump on looking for a point of difference, you have been handsomely rewarded. Buckley has been playing deep in defence for the Giants and scored 76, 99 and 99 in the opening three rounds to jump in price by $70,000 after his third game – but if he keeps scoring like this there is more money to be made. Buckley doesn’t need big disposals to rack up points, benefiting from a disposal efficiency of 86.4 per cent and an average of seven intercept possessions this year. .

Jordan Dawson (Adel) $591,900 DEF

After all the KFC SuperCoach carnage in the opening three rounds, wouldn’t it be nice to have some reliability in your defence? The Crows skipper has opened the year with scores of 97, 110 and 114, which is really standard practice for Dawson. He played a mix of defence and midfield in the showdown, which it was later revealed had long been in the works after Dawson’s move from Sydney. You’re paying more than $600k, but what you’re getting is a player who will almost certainly push triple figures every week. His marking, kicking efficiency and ability to read the play are everything the KFC SuperCoach scorers salivate over. Dawson only scored less than 92 three times last year and in these uncertain KFC SuperCoach times, that can’t be underestimated.

Harry Rowston is on the bubble this week. Picture: Phil Hillyard

Harry Rowston (GWS) $139,800 MID | Break Even: -23

Probably the funniest moment of last year’s draft was when Sydney pulled the rug out from under GWS by bidding on academy prospect Rowston in the first round. But, as the Swans later explained, that’s how highly they rated the tough midfielder. Rowston has scored 48 and 55 in the opening two games of his career but has a promising role, featuring at 13 centre bounces against Carlton on Saturday. His price is slightly elevated due to being chosen at pick 16. The beauty is he appears set for plenty of senior opportunities in his maiden campaign as a Giant. The same can’t be said for fellow midfield bubble boy Will Phillips who is a borderline selection at North. If both are chosen in round 4, Phillips is the better pick of the two though based on his scoring potential.

PUT HIM ON YOUR WATCHLIST

Is another DEF-MID cheapie about to emerge? This season has already blessed KFC SuperCoaches with Reuben Ginbey, and to a lesser extent Charlie Constable and Campbell Chesser. Now another Giant, Josh Fahey, could be the next DEF-MID who becomes popular in KFC SuperCoach. Fahey had a monster VFL game at the weekend, finishing with 43 disposals, 10 marks and four tackles. If he makes his debut this week, it could mean he becomes a perfect downgrade for Darcy Wilmot, Conor McKenna or Alwyn Davey in a few weeks. Fahey was taken at pick 42 in the 2021 draft but his first season as a Giants ended in May due to a shoulder reconstruction.

Originally published as SuperCoach round 4 trade guide: Fantasy Freako’s opposition analysis plus top targets