Finals run home: Our experts predict how every finals game will play out

The big, big sound in the big, big dance? Our experts have predicted how every finals game will play out and one is tipping the Giants to take over September. See every finals predictor here.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - JULY 28: Matthew Owies of the Blues celebrates a goal during the round 20 AFL match between Collingwood Magpies and Carlton Blues at Melbourne Cricket Ground, on July 28, 2023, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

The Pies? The Dees? How far Carlton can go? Is GWS the smoky? Our AFL experts run their eye over the entire finals bracket and give their predictions on how each week could play out. Did they get it right?

The winner of Thursrday’s night’s clash is my tip to win the flag, and that is Melbourne. A home preliminary final against Port Adelaide looms at the MCG. If the Blues beat Sydney, the city will shut down for a Carlton-Collingwood semi-final. The Pies should make it all the way to the preliminary final, where they will have to knock over the Lions. Not confident that will happen.

Like so many, have simply sat back and admired what the Pies have done this year – fast, energetic play, lifting the heart rate of supporters in close finishes and all with a smile from coach Craig McRae. Securing a week off will be vital, and could be just the tonic for returning midfielder Nick Daicos, while the Demons’ profile just screams September. A preliminary final between Melbourne and Brisbane could be one for the ages.

The Dees came from nowhere to beat Brisbane in round 18. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

The potential for egg on face here is spectacular given Carlton would believe they can run the table and Melbourne is battle-hardened and ready for a clash with Collingwood. But let’s back in form across the entire season – so Collingwood wins the day against the Demons – as well as Brisbane’s Gabba record. That would see them outlasting the Power on route to a grand final.

Twenty years on from the great Magpies-Lions rivalry, we might be about to get an exciting new grand final renewal. But this time we’re tipping it will be the black and white prevailing. The Gabba pathway should ensure the Lions make it to the premiership playoff, while the Magpies finally have something tangible to play for against the Demons.

Brisbane has beaten the Pies twice in 2023 already. Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images

Aside from Nick Daicos, who looks on track to be fit for week two, Collingwood is at full health. And over the past month the club has been in something of an experimental mode. It means the Pies are primed to dominate September after coming within a kick of premier Geelong last year. Brisbane deserves respect and won’t choke at the Gabba. St Kilda will show it has taken a big step forward by winning a final, while the Blues can win the flag in 2024. How does Melbourne secure the prime key forward it needs to round out the list, or can Tom McDonald become a finals hero?

The hottest two teams entering September – the Lions are 9-2 recently, and one of those losses was against the Demons by one point – will play for the main prize as in the background the Demons’ women’s team chalks up enough premiership points to secure the $1,000,000 prizemoney as the inaugural Club Champion. Meanwhile, Western Bulldogs fans will watch on as either Lachie Hunter or Josh Dunkley becomes a dual premiership superstar as their club prepares to activate a few picks outside the top 20 as their compensation for losing those much-loved players last year.

Will the Dees make it two out of three this year? Picture: Matt King/AFL Photos/via Getty Images

Have there ever been two more important qualifying finals than this weekend? The winners on Thursday and Saturday night take a step towards the grand final, with a week off before a home preliminary final, likely against an interstate opponent. The Lions are so good at home, even if past finals history is spotty, that its hard to see them getting done at the Gabba. While Carlton’s run has been exceptional, the Blues appear a step behind the top four. It will be back-to-the-future for Craig McRae on grand final day, with the Magpies and Lions doing battle again, 20 years on from 2003. And McRae will still be on the winning side, even if he is in different colours.

Brisbane’s home form at the Gabba should get it to the grand final. As to who plays the Lions at the MCG, the Demons have a big chance to knock off Collingwood, who I think are vulnerable this week, and avoid a clash against Carlton at the MCG and then the Lions in Brisbane. Brisbane won at the MCG last year and should have won against the Demons there earlier this year, so I’m backing the Lions to get it done if they meet in the grand final.

The Lions might not have to leave the Gabba until grand final day. Picture: Albert Perez/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Collingwood’s clash against Melbourne is a toss of the coin for me and I’m not as bullish as others on Carlton, so can see that game being close. I expect the top four to all make preliminary finals and reckon the home sides will win them. Whoever wins the Pies-Dees match has a great shot at a flag and think it will be Collingwood. Brisbane at the Gabba, where it is yet to lose this year, gets the edge over Melbourne, whose forward line doesn’t quite look like a flag-winning one. Pies to beat Brisbane in a tight grand final.

I suspect the 2023 premier will come from the winner of Thursday night’s qualifying final between Collingwood and Melbourne, and I’m tipping that will be the Demons. Melbourne has won seven of its past eight matches heading into September and is a team that is built for finals. Brisbane should get to the last day, given its home final advantage at the Gabba. However, I can’t quite see the Lions going all the way and securing their first flag since 2003.

The Dees and Pies clash will be monumental in the finals picture. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos via Getty Images

Coin flip to open the finals on Thursday night that could shape the rest of September. Lions at home should get the job done against a Charlie Dixon-less Port. A Pies v Blues semi is mouthwatering, but have to go with the minor premiers there. Port blitzed GWS a month ago and a lot would have to change for the result to be flipped. The Dees are humming at the perfect time and should be too good for Port at the G, while the Lions’ recent record plus home advantage gets them over the Pies in the other prelim. No better way for the Lions to break the MCG hoodoo than on grand final day. They should have won that round 18 clash with the Dees and will have learned some valuable lessons from that finish.

I think a qualifying final loss will be the wake-up call that the Pies need. They’ll get a few extra players back – starting with Nick Daicos – and mount a charge through to the final weekend of September. On the other side of the draw, the Giants have the game plan to really shake up the competition. They’re coming up against sides who will be feeling the pressure and they’ve shown this year they’re not afraid to take teams on away from home. It might prove one leap too far against the Pies in the GF, though.

Originally published as Finals run home: Our experts predict how every finals game will play out