AFL Trade: How Geelong can get Bailey Smith trade done with Western Bulldogs

The race for Bailey Smith appeared over before it started. But, there are rivals with greater trade capital Geelong should be wary of — headlined by Melbourne.

As with all trade talk in September, it was unsurprising the Western Bulldogs began the official Bailey Smith discourse by digging in their heels on Monday.

Smith told Luke Beveridge on Monday he wanted out of the club and the battle for leverage has begun.

The midfielder is off contract so it would appear he is in pole position to rule the deal but as a 23-year-old who is expected to enjoy another decade in the game and join his second club on a long-term deal, the Dogs will demand a strong return.

Bailey Smith is on the move. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos

While Smith did not specifically pick Geelong as his destination on Monday, the football world has expected him to be wearing hoops in 2025 for some time.

The Cats will not have a first pick before No. 15 in November’s draft and it is more than likely that selection will push into the early 20s once academy and father-son picks are accounted for.

That pick alone will not satisfy the Dogs and asking for Geelong’s future first in hope it will be a better selection may be folly given the club has missed finals twice in 18 seasons.

The Cats have all their picks available so could trade both their first and second for Smith, but would say picks 20 and 36 be enough?

It seems to be the fairest middle ground.

The star Bulldog is a wanted man. Picture: Dylan Burns/AFL Photos

Trading two first-round picks has been a high-risk strategy but Geelong’s first this year is essentially an early second and the Cats would back themselves to make another deep run in 2025 with the addition of Smith to the team, so two picks sitting around 20 might be the best they can offer without working to get up the order this off-season.

In terms of players, it’s impossible to see the Cats giving up any of their shiny young toys in a trade unless the Dogs are particularly interested in fringe youngsters like Jhye Clark, Mitch Knevitt.

Cats list boss Andrew Mackie dug his own heels in somewhat last year in the Esava Ratugolea deal over late picks and will push for what he sees as a fair price.

The Cats could threaten to walk him to the pre-season draft but that very rarely comes to fruition and Geelong’s pick there would be late anyway.

WHAT HISTORY SAYS

A host of quality young midfielders have been traded in the last three seasons, almost all of them for deals centred on top-10 picks.

Adam Cerra’s move potentially mirrors Smith the best, and the former Docker also didn’t specify a club when he asked for a trade before later making clear he wanted to be a Blue.

Cerra was two years younger than Smith is now and went for pick 6 and a future third.

Jacob Hopper sits in a similar band of high-potential player without many accolades and was traded from GWS to Richmond at the age of 25 for pick 31 and a future first, with two late picks going back to the Tigers.

Josh Dunkley was better credentialed when he got his move from the Dogs to Brisbane at age 25.

He went for pick 21 and a future first, with some other picks swapped around.

WHO ELSE SHOULD GET INVOLVED

There isn’t a person in the footy industry who expects Smith to go anywhere except Geelong but given he didn’t lock in his dream destination other clubs may as well inquire.

Melbourne needs more youthful legs in its midfield, although Smith’s kicking would be a worry in a Demons side that can hack the footy.

The Dees have pick five, which would be a great start.

St Kilda has been searching for a star midfielder and could have picks seven and eight once the Josh Battle compensation is sorted, with his running game perfectly suited to Ross Lyon’s new style.

The Saints are keen to draft young on-ballers with those picks.

Collingwood was interested earlier this year but could only offer next year’s first rounder while Hawthorn appears too busy with Tom Barrass.

Originally published as AFL Trade: How Geelong can get Bailey Smith trade done with Western Bulldogs