AFL Trade: Verdict on every deal for two first-round picks – from Treloar and Beams to Gibbs and Jezza
Dan Houston for two first-round picks? Adam Treloar kicked off the trend when he went to Collingwood for that in 2015. Since then, eight others have been part of similar moves – but not all have worked out. See the verdicts on every deal.
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The modern era of trading player for two first-round picks began with Adam Treloar in 2015.
But one that would have sent even bigger shockwaves than the tsunami it caused if it went through in through today’s trade-obsessed footy landscape was back in 2002.
Back then, Adelaide gave up picks two and 18 for 31-year-old Wayne Carey just months after he blew up North Melbourne.
It wasn’t technically two first-rounders, given there were only 16 clubs in the competition then, but a forgotten monster trade.
The Roos used the picks on Daniel Wells, who played 243 games for the club and Kris Shore, who played zero.
Carey played 28 games for the Crows and kicked 56 goals – if a team traded picks 2 and 18 for that return now, they would be lambasted by fans for years.
How is this for a haul two years before that: North Melbourne got pick six, pick eight, 37 and Jess Sinclair for Peter Bell.
With Dan Houston thrown up as testing the trade market – the defender attempted to hose that talk down on Friday night – Port Adelaide is sure to set an initial asking price on a return to Victoria at two first-rounders, given he is an All-Australian under contract until the end of 2027.
After a rush in the late 2010s – five players were traded for double firsts across 2017-18 – clubs have since tried to avoid handing over two firsts unless the player is a slam-dunk star.
The quality of the picks and the gamble of next year makes a huge difference.
Melbourne has been named as a potential suitor for Houston and what if the Demons slide down the ladder in the run home and end up with, say, pick six this year?
Pick six and a future first feels like overs for Houston, despite him being a superb rebounder, so talks would quickly shift to a future second.
The Dees are hoping to bounce back next year so would bank on that future pick falling down from the 2024 finishing position, but that dice-roll has hurt clubs in the past decade.
Players with varying resumes such as Dion Prestia, Patrick Dangerfield, Jaeger O’Meara, Josh Dunkley, Lachie Schultz, Jacob Hopper and Jesse Hogan have been traded for a first and second.
Tim Taranto was as close as possible to a double first, with Richmond giving up picks 12 and 19 to GWS for him, with 19 the first pick of the second round and falling to No.22 on draft night to be used on Max Gruzewski.
Going the whole hog and putting in two blue chip picks has failed when it comes to trades for Bryce Gibbs and Dayne Beams (back to Collingwood), while Treloar was pushed out of the Magpies a few years after his first trade.
But there have been clear wins for Melbourne (grabbing Jake Lever) and Geelong (Jeremy Cameron), with Fremantle expecting to be in the same boat after the Luke Jackson swap.
Of the nine moves, by our count, four have been won by the sellers and four by the buyers, with one undecided.
In the nine-pack, Lever, Cameron, Jackson were the only key position players moved and all three have been successes.
The midfielders haven’t had such a perfect strike rate.
Here is a run down of each of the big trades.
Treloar set the market at two firsts with this deal. The Pies got pick 28 back so that mitigates the two first rounders somewhat. And Treloar was excellent in his time at the club, polling 21 Brownlow votes in 2016 and 18 in 2019. Had the Pies won that 2018 flag, this would be a win for the Pies. But Treloar was pushed out at the end of 2020 and is arguably now playing the best football of his career with the Western Bulldogs. GWS used its top picks on further moves to jump up draft orders. Sorry to sit on the fence, but hard to split who won this.
Winner: On the fence
Jake Lever (2017)
Melbourne got: Jake Lever, pick 35 (Harrison Petty), Adelaide future R3 (Matthew Parker)
Adelaide got: Pick 10 (Lochie O’Brien), Melbourne future R1 (Liam Stocker) and R4 (Robbie Young)
No doubt about this one – a huge Melbourne win. Many media members guffawed when the Dees went all out to trade in Lever and Steven May but it built the backbone of a premiership and clearly the club’s most successful era in 60 years. The kicker to landing Lever was that the extra pick thrown in by the Crows became Harrison Petty – who Adelaide reportedly mulled offering two first rounders for six years on. The Crows used the No.10 pick that same year as the fulcrum for our next deal …
Winner: Melbourne
And the Gibbs move didn’t work for the Crows either. After an initial failed attempt, the Crows finally got Gibbs in 2017 and it is forgotten that he had a strong 2018 season. But after that, he played just 15 games as Adelaide tumbled down the ladder. On the surface, Carlton’s return isn’t massive, but the on-trading of pick 16 (which became Bulldog Ed Richards) and the future second (James Jordon) helped the Blues net ruck star Tom De Koning and defender Mitch McGovern. Meanwhile, the Crows remain in a rebuild and would desperately want two 23-year-old first round picks on their list right now.
Winner: Carlton
Dylan Shiel (2018)
Essendon got: Dylan Shiel, GWS future R2 (Ronin O’Connor)
GWS got: Pick 9 (Jye Caldwell), Essendon future R1 (Miles Bergman)
An All-Australian in 2017, Essendon thought it was getting a genuine star in Shiel. He finished second in the 2019 best-and-fairest but has struggled with injury since and hasn’t been the same player as he was at the back end of his Giants tenure. The twist here is that the first pick the Dons gave up became Jye Caldwell, who was traded into Essendon a few years later and looks a 10-year Bomber. But the package sent out has outperformed Shiel’s output.
Winner: GWS
Dayne Beams (2018)
Collingwood got: Dayne Beams, picks 41 (unused) and 44 (Unused)
Brisbane got: Picks 18 (Ely Smith), 56 (Noah Answerth) and Collingwood future R1 (Mitch Georgiades)
Potentially the biggest disaster on this list. Beams helped Collingwood in a big way when he went north, with that deal helping net Jack Crisp and Jordan De Goey. He played four seasons at Brisbane and was brilliant in 2017-18 before asking for a trade south to the Pies who had just lost a grand final by a kick. Beams played just nine games on his return and while the Lions didn’t have a field day with the picks they got, they won this one.
Winner: Brisbane
Lachie Neale (2018)
Brisbane got: Lachie Neale, pick 30 (Tom Berry)
Fremantle got: Pick 6 (Ben King), 19 (Xavier O’Halloran), 55 (Nick Hind)
Possibly the quietest trade on this list at the time, Neale has since won two Brownlow medals, become co-captain and a sure-fire hall of fame player since joining the Lions. Fremantle traded on all of their picks here – including using No.6 to get Jesse Hogan in another failed swap – and didn’t get anywhere near the quality of Neale. A huge win for Brisbane.
Winner: Brisbane
Tim Kelly has been possibly West Coast’s best player in its worst era. Geelong’s decision to hold onto him for one extra season in 2019 paid off big time as his value only increased in an All-Australian campaign, then the Cats sold high on him. Then Geelong used the rewards of that trade to knock off a huge move the next year. West Coast got a good player but gave up too much for him given the slide in the team’s fortunes since.
Winner: Geelong
Jeremy Cameron (2020)
Geelong received: Jeremy Cameron, GWS future R2 (James Willis), Essendon future R2 (Paul Curtis)
GWS received: Pick 13 (Conor Stone), 15 (Ryan Angwin), 20 (Brayden Cook), Geelong future R4 (Jase Burgoyne)
When you have to sell the farm, make sure it is for a star. That is what the Cats did, handing over three first-rounders (albeit late ones) for Cameron. And it has been a clear victory, with Cameron leading the Cats to the 2022 flag. GWS did the right thing in digging in on the restricted free agent and forcing a trade but the two best chips they won in Conor Stone and Ryan Angwin haven’t really delivered. This trade for Geelong was made possible by the Kelly move, and was another clear win.
Winner: Geelong
Luke Jackson (2022)
Fremantle got: Luke Jackson, pick 44 (Max Knobel), 67 (Corey Wagner)
Melbourne got: Pick 13 (Matthew Jefferson), Fremantle future R1 (Caleb Windsor) and R2 (Billy Wilson)
The final move here, Jackson commanded two first rounders and a second when the young budding star ruck wanted to go back to Perth. Jackson is exactly the kind of player Melbourne needs right now but they did OK in the deal – Caleb Windsor was taken last year thanks to the trade and looks every bit a 200-gamer, and the club rates young forward Matthew Jefferson. But the Dockers win this one, given they think they will get another 200 games of A-grade football from the ruck-forward who could be anything in his prime.
Winner: Fremantle
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