2021 AFL Rising Star award: Luke Jackson and Tom Green favourites but it’s an open race
With only five rounds remaining in the season, the Rising Star race is still wide open. Who has the edge? We’ve asked the experts.
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Essendon forward Archie Perkins kept as fit as anyone during lockdown in Victoria last year.
His then NAB League coach at Sandringham Dragons, Jackson Kornberg, would spot Perkins doing his running program almost daily.
“I’d see him running down Beach Rd doing his running most days,” Kornberg said.
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“So he was pretty driven in that respect. It wasn’t as though he had to be prodded to do stuff. He comes across as a bit of a laid-back kid, but internally he’s got a pretty big fire in him to develop and improve and get to the top level.”
But even the most driven of Victorian draft prospects last year were not ready to be thrown in the deep end for their first AFL pre-season.
With the 2020 NAB League season having been scrapped, Melbourne-based players had not trained as a team since March and had not played a serious game in close to 18 months.
Perkins, who was selected by the Bombers with pick 9 in last year’s draft, turned up to Tullamarine for pre-season a little nervous.
“It was a bit daunting going into pre-season knowing that I hadn’t really had any proper training sessions for months,” Perkins said.
“But the coaches and the strength and conditioning staff know that you haven’t really done much throughout the year, so you can’t just come in and go super hard because it will probably be counter-productive for your body and injuries and all that.
“So it was more about easing into the AFL system and building up our loads and integrating us into training one step at a time rather than just hitting us with big training sessions in pre-season.”
Perkins’ experience goes some way to explaining the unusual NAB AFL Rising Star nominee field this year, which lacks a standout first-year talent.
The Essendon young gun, who was the Round 17 nominee for the award, is one of just five players from last year’s draft who have been nominated for the Rising Star this year.
Perkins and Bombers’ teammate Nik Cox are the only two first-year Victorian-produced players in that field.
Players in other states — including South Australian forward Riley Thilthorpe who joined Adelaide at pick 2 — were able to play some football last year.
However, Victorian players who traditionally make up about half the draft pool clearly came from a long way back.
“It’s just such an important year developmentally, so to miss that isn’t easy,” Kornberg said.
Cox (Round 1) and Perkins (Round 3) were two of the earliest debutants among the Victorian 2020 draft class and have each played every game since, albeit with some fluctuations in form.
A lack of fitness and then form meant No. 1 pick Jamarra Ugle-Hagan was only handed his first game for the Western Bulldogs in Round 17.
Other top Victorian picks including Essendon’s Zach Reid have been hit by a series of injury issues.
The best first-year interstate talent has also been injury hit.
Sydney forward Errol Gulden logged 19 disposals and kicked three goals in a dazzling Round 1 debut but missed five games mid-season with a foot injury.
Fellow Swan and early bolter Braeden Campbell was dropped after Round 6 and has battled a shin injury since.
Hawthorn’s Denver Grainger-Barras has played just three games due to a knee injury and then concussion.
Add it all together and an award that normally has a runaway favourite is as open a race as ever this year.
Seven of this year’s Rising Star nominees were also nominated last year but didn’t do enough to topple the 2020 winner, Fremantle midfielder Caleb Serong.
This year looms as the second-chance draw.
The two shortest-priced favourites this season are two-time nominees in Greater Western Sydney midfielder Tom Green and Melbourne forward-ruckman Luke Jackson.
For the first time since Melbourne’s Jesse Hogan in 2015, it looks like the award will not be won by a first-year player.
FOX FOOTY EXPERTS RISING STAR VERDICT
Gerard Healy (1988 Brownlow medallist)
I think the Rising Star is a close tussle with Luke Jackson just ahead of Tom Green and a large group just behind. Jackson’s importance to Melbourne in the ruck and forward has been significant and as a second-year tall, it’s been a great performance to date.
Matthew Pavlich (eight-time Fremantle leading goalkicker and 2000 Rising Star nominee)
Luke Jackson. He’s a highly talented ruckman-forward who in his second year is playing like a veteran with movement not normally capable of a 200cm-plus player. He’s one that Demons fans will live to watch for years to come.
Chris Cavanagh (Herald Sun)
He is the favourite for a reason. It’s hard to go past Greater Western Sydney midfielder Tom Green in this year’s Rising Star field. He has held his spot in a strong onball brigade at the Giants for much of the year and is averaging the second-most contested possessions at the club.
2021 NAB AFL RISING STAR NOMINEES
Round 1. Errol Gulden (Sydney) – $34
The first-year Swan missed five games with a foot injury mid-season but has otherwise played every game. He started the season like a house on fire with three goals on debut, but has managed just five majors since and is averaging 15.2 disposals.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 75 points
Round 2. Braeden Campbell (Sydney) – $51
Like Gulden, Campbell is a Sydney Swans Academy graduate and made a strong start to the season, averaging 15.7 disposals from his first six matches. However, he was then dropped and went on to suffer a shin injury that has meant he has been unsighted since.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 55 points
Round 3. Chad Warner (Sydney) – $21
Warner played two matches on debut in 2020, but only earnt his first Rising Star nomination this year. He midfielder played the first 12 games of the season, averaging 17.1 disposals, but has been sidelined since with shin and leg injuries.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 69 points
Round 4. Lachlan Sholl (Adelaide) – $9
Sholl was previously nominated for the 2020 Rising Star in the final round of last season after playing eight games in his debut year. The wingman has gone on to play every game this season, averaging 18.6 disposals.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 69 points
Round 5. Mitch Georgiades (Port Adelaide) – $21
A second-time nominee, after winning one in Round 9 last year. The key forward missed Round 1 this season but has played every game since, averaging 10.4 disposals and a respectable 1.5 goals a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 60 points
Round 6. Jacob Koschitzke (Hawthorn) – $41
Selected in the 2018 national draft but only made his AFL debut in Round 1 this year. The key forward has missed just one game through injury this season and has averaged 8.6 disposals and 1.3 goals a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 53 points
Round 7. Luke Jackson (Melbourne) – $4
Nominated on debut last year, Jackson got a second Rising Star gong this year. The forward-ruckman missed Round 9 with a finger injury but has otherwise played every game this season, averaging 13.1 disposals, 10.1 hit-outs and 0.6 goals a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 69 points
Round 8. James Jordon (Melbourne) – $6
The third-favourite for this year’s Rising Star, Jordan was selected in the 2018 national draft but only made his AFL debut in Round 1 this year. The midfielder has played every game, averaging 17.9 disposals, 1.6 clearances and 5.3 tackles a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 76 points
Round 9. Tom Green (Greater Western Sydney) – $3
This year’s favourite for the Rising Star, Green was also nominated in his debut season last year. The inside midfielder has averaged 20.4 disposals, 4.4 clearances and 0.5 goals across 14 games this season but has twice been dropped by the Giants.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 78 points
Round 10. Cody Weightman (Western Bulldogs) – $15
An exciting small forward, Weightman is in his second season after playing three games last year. He did not get a senior call-up until Round 9 but has played every game since, averaging 11.1 disposals and 1.8 goals a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 69 points
Round 11. Trent Rivers (Melbourne) – $41
A second-year player, Rivers played nine senior games last year but has stepped things up this season and hasn’t missed a match in one of the competition’s top sides. The defender is averaging 15.7 disposals and four marks a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 65 points
Round 12. Nik Cox (Essendon) – $8
Selected by the Bombers with pick 8 in last year’s draft, Cox debuted in Round 1 and has played every game since. The athletic wingman is averaging 12.9 disposals, 4.2 marks and 0.5 goals a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 57 points
Round 13. Riley Thilthorpe (Adelaide) – $15
The No. 2 pick in last year’s draft, Thilthorpe has shown plenty of promise. The key forward debuted in Round 6 and hasn’t missed a game since. He has kicked multiple goals in five of his 11 games and is averaging 10.6 disposals and 1.5 goals a match.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 63 points
Round 14. Harrison Jones (Essendon) – $13
A key forward, Jones was drafted in 2019 but only made his debut in Round 1 this season. He has played every game this year, averaging 7.3 disposals and 1.3 goals a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 49 points
Round 15. Deven Robertson (Brisbane Lions) – $34
A 2019 draftee, Robertson only played one game last year but has gone on to miss just one game since Round 3 this season. The outside midfielder or forward has averaged 14.1 disposals and 3.4 marks this season.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 65 points
Round 16. Justin McInerney (Sydney) – $13
A 2018 draftee, McInerney made his debut back in Round 4, 2019 and was previously nominated for the Rising Star in Round 15 last year. Since Round 2 this season the wingman has missed just one game through injury and has averaged 16.9 disposals, 4.9 marks and 0.4 goals a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 73 points
Round 17. Archie Perkins (Essendon) – $26
Selected with pick 9 in last year’s draft, Perkins debuted in Round 3 and has not missed a game since. The exciting forward has averaged 13.5 disposals, 3.1 marks and 0.4 goals a game.
KFC SuperCoach Average: 52 points
* All odds courtesy of TAB and all statistics current to the end of round 17.
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