Analysis: Why Trump feels the love in the city trying to lock him up

New York is not a state that will decide the US election. It is, however, indicative of what could be a stunning twist in the race.

To Donald Trump’s opponents, New York City seemed like a strange place to launch his push to the finish line of the election race. To his allies, it was the most obvious place of all.

The former president had long wanted to host a blockbuster rally in Madison Square Garden, which brands itself as the world’s most famous arena that has been graced by all the greats: Muhammad Ali, Elvis Presley, Hulk Hogan. Mr Trump sees himself as just like them — not a politician but a showman.

And so he brought the show, rewarding fans who lined up for hours with appearances from everyone from the world’s richest man Elon Musk and TV personality Dr Phil to Ultimate Fighting Championship boss Dana White and even Hogan himself.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. Picture: AFP

There was also an element of pride in rallying at MSG. New York is not just Mr Trump’s hometown — it is the city he believes he built. His son Donald Jr called him its king.

No more. Mr Trump is now a resident of Florida, while New York’s law enforcement officials pursue him in their courts. The most time he has spent in Manhattan lately was for his criminal trial earlier this year. Three weeks after next week’s election, he is supposed to return to be sentenced.

Mr Trump still wants to be loved in New York City, just as he was long before he entered politics. Back in Madison Square Garden for one night only, he certainly felt the love, especially from young men who were not even born in his celebrity heyday but are now shaping as a crucial force in his bid to defeat Kamala Harris.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump leaves a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden in New York. Picture: AFP

All of that being said, and despite the claims of some of Mr Trump’s surrogates, New York is not a state that will decide the election. It is, however, indicative of what could be a stunning twist in the race.

A day before his rally, a New York Times poll showed Mr Trump trailed 27 per cent to 66 per cent in New York City. If that holds in the election, it would be the worst showing for a Democrat in the Big Apple since 1988.

Joe Biden won 76 per cent of the vote four years ago, but New York City has since borne the brunt of the issues at the heart of Mr Trump’s campaign: inflation and illegal immigration. Here and in other liberal cities, more voters are turning to the Republican.

This explains Mr Trump’s unusual strength in the most populous states like New York and California, which in turn explains why he is well ahead of where he was this time four and eight years ago in the national vote.

But he could still lose. He could even win the popular vote and be defeated, because it is highly unlikely these states will change hands. The race is still set to be decided by thin margins in places like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

New York calls itself the empire city, but it is not where Mr Trump’s new empire — if that is what is about to emerge — will be built.

Originally published as Analysis: Why Trump feels the love in the city trying to lock him up