Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan will face pressure to quit if Labor is hit hard at federal election

Premier Jacinta Allan will face pressure to quit if Labor takes a battering in Victoria at the upcoming federal election, with senior party figures actively canvassing a move against her.

Premier Jacinta Allan will face pressure to quit if Labor is hit hard in Victoria at the upcoming federal election, with senior party figures actively canvassing a move against her.

The Herald Sun can reveal Labor powerbrokers have been in talks for weeks about a leadership change amid increasing concerns she will be defeated at next year’s state election.

The shock move comes amid a collapse in her popular support and anger over her government’s handling of youth crime and its continued commitment to the controversial Suburban Rail Loop.

Cross-factional discussions have focused on forcing her to resign if Labor loses three or more Victorian seats on May 3.

A potential breakaway group of MPs from the party’s left are being encouraged to back a leadership change in a bid to boost the party’s chances of a historic fourth term.

The left, which boasts the largest number of MPs in the parliamentary party, has been united behind both Daniel Andrews and Ms Allan in recent years, so a shift would be significant.

Jacinta Allan could be forced out if Labor loses three or more Victorian seats at the federal election. Picture: Jason Edwards

High-level discussions with some MPs were understood to have been held at Parliament House during last week’s final sitting before the Easter break.

Party leaders are desperate to avoid a messy coup and are instead hopeful Ms Allan could be convinced to resign if she lost the support of several Caucus allies.

That would require a majority block of MPs from the party’s strengthened right and the left to get behind a new leader, with deputy Premier Ben Carroll considered the favourite to replace Ms Allan.

Minister for Public and Active Transport, Gabrielle Williams, has also been spoken about as a potential replacement.

Key unions would have to back any change.

“If Labor is punished in Victoria at the federal election, the clock will be ticking on Jacinta’s leadership,” one senior party figure said.

“If we were to lose two seats she might hang on, but three or more and it would be hard. If she’s losing six it’s game over.”

It is understood party elder, former premier Steve Bracks, has grown increasingly open to a change of leader and has privately said he would support a change to Mr Carroll.

It comes amid a further collapse in support for Victorian Labor, the Allan government’s signature Suburban Rail Loop project and Ms Allan personally.

New polling from bipartisan firm Redbridge, obtained exclusively by the Herald Sun, shows Ms Allan’s favourability has dropped to a record low -35, the lowest of any political leader in the nation.

It is negative across every demographic including age, gender, religion, and socio-economic grouping.

Former premier Steve Bracks has privately said he would support a change of leadership to Mr Carroll. Picture: Luis Enrique Ascuia

By comparison, Opposition Leader Brad Battin’s favourability score is at +2, while the Coalition lead Labor 51 to 49 on a two-party-preferred basis.

At the same time, the Coalition’s primary vote has dropped two points to 41 while Labor’s dropped a point to 29 – eight points lower than it was at the 2022 election.

In 2010, when John Brumby was dumped as premier, Labor’s primary vote was 36 per cent.

Redbridge co-director Tony Barry said while Labor remained competitive, Ms Allan would be unlikely to lead the party to victory.

“Across all our national research, Jacinta Allan is currently the most unpopular leader in Australian politics,” he said.

“With an approval of net -35 her leadership is almost terminal. It would take a Covid type event for the Premier to turn these numbers around.

“It’s also clear in these numbers that Victorians are looking for change, but they also don’t see Jacinta Allan as that change.

New research reveals Jacinta Allan is the most unpopular leader in the country. Picture: David Crosling

“The risk for the Coalition is that Labor replaces its most unpopular policies either directly via Jacinta Allan or through a change of leadership, whilst pensioning off failed ministers.”

Concerningly for Labor, the Redbridge poll of 2013 people showed more than half of its primary vote was “soft”, meaning those surveyed said they would still consider changing their vote.

Voters backed the Coalition to better manage key issues including law and order, housing affordability and cost of living.

And the government’s performance was rated as poor across law and order, infrastructure, hospitals, energy, economic management and cost of living.

Most worryingly for Labor, a staggering 64 per cent said the Allan government’s performance would influence their vote at the federal election.

On the divisive issue of the $34.5bn first stage of the Suburban Rail Loop – which Ms Allan has repeatedly refused to pause despite growing concerns about its affordability – less than half of voters, 46 per cent, said they “supported” or “somewhat supported” the project.

It is understood senior Labor figures have met with key members of Ms Allan’s office over concerns about the project, with the Premier’s staff saying their data showed it was widely popular.

But RedBridge’s polling showed just 17 per cent of voters thought the SRL should be completed as a priority over other projects, while 30 per cent said it should be paused, 6 per cent said it should not be funded at all and the rest were on the fence.

In the eastern suburbs, which would benefit most from the tunnel from Cheltenham to Box Hill, 34 per cent want it paused.

Former party strategist, Redbridge co-director Kos Samaras, said the SRL was fatal for Labor’s election hopes.

“This Labor government has been very effective in utilising infrastructure projects, such as the removal of level crossings, as a potent political weapon,” he said.

“Unfortunately, the SRL is no longer one of these projects. For many voters, it’s a nice project to have, but no longer a must have. In 2018, voters could not see a future Melbourne without it, in 2025, they are simply agnostic.”

Originally published as Victorian Premier Jacinta Allan will face pressure to quit if Labor is hit hard at federal election