Shannon Deery: Jacinta Allan’s offering of free public transport for kids in Victoria is all she can afford

The free public transport for kids scheme will be a popular vote winner for Allan — but don’t expect much more by way of cost-of-living relief in Tuesday’s state budget.

The Allan government’s free public transport for kids scheme will be a popular vote winner.

The centrepiece retail announcement of Jacinta Allan’s second budget is again all about helping families.

Like last year’s school savings bonus, this year’s free public transport for kids scheme will be a popular vote winner because it genuinely tackles rising cost of living pressures.

But don’t expect much more by way of cost-of-living relief in Tuesday’s budget because Allan simply can’t afford it.

Don’t expect much more cost-of-living relief from this year’s budget, writes Shannon Deery. Picture: Valeriu Campan

Ahead of next year’s pre-election budget, this week’s budget is the last litmus test of the government’s credibility, priorities, and capacity to manage finances responsibly.

Because the election campaign, which feels already underway, will inevitably distort priorities.

Next year’s budget will likely be stocked with voter-friendly giveaways funded by a massive election war chest that is squirrelled away in the budget as unallocated funding.

Victoria might be broke, but there will be plenty of cash to splash as Labor tries to convince Victoria it’s worthy of a historic fourth term.

So Tuesday should be all about demonstrating economic competence, establishing a sustainable fiscal trajectory, and fending off Opposition attacks about reckless spending.

More importantly it should be all about showing the credit rating agencies that the adults are in charge.

Victoria has been put on notice repeatedly, both in public and in private, that it is facing a damning record low credit downgrade.

Already, at AA, we have the lowest rating in the nation, a further fall would send shockwaves through the economy.

It would heap pressure on the state’s ability to service its record debt, estimated to grow well beyond current forecasts of $187.3bn by 2027-28, and threaten essential service funding.

Fiscal discipline at this time is not just optional, it is imperative.

After a decade of Tim Pallas controlling the purse strings Victorians ballooning debt, cost blowouts, rising interest repayments, and mounting cost-of-living pressures are the norm.

In her first budget, new Treasurer Jaclyn Symes can arrest the waning public appetite for big spending and show there is a steady hand on the wheel.

And she can pivot from the legacy of pandemic-era expenditure and make a statement about being prudent, focused, and future-minded.

Treasurer Jaclyn Symes needs to prove there’s a steady hand on the wheel in Victoria. Picture: Jason Edwards

She has promised cuts, but hasn’t ruled out new or increased taxes.

There is the danger that this approach could hurt vulnerable communities.

This is the balancing act Symes must carefully navigate as she walks the tightrope of delivering a disciplined budget that protects frontline services and targets support to those in need.

Allan and Symes will be haunted by the fall of the Kirner government on the back of economic ineptitude.

It prompted Labor to design a new blueprint for financial management that promised to control debt, spending and taxes and maintain healthy surpluses.

It was an approach maintained through the Bracks and Brumby governments and the early Andrews administration but it has fallen away in recent years.

A return to such an approach would strengthen Allan’s argument for a renewed mandate and historic fourth term.

Anything less would come at the worst possible time.

Originally published as Shannon Deery: Jacinta Allan’s offering of free public transport for kids in Victoria is all she can afford