Townsville residents can expect it to stay wet under foot for days to come

Long-range forecasters are concerned about mammoth rainfall across Queensland. Here’s why.

Jami Roberts and Caitlan Charles

4 min read

January 30, 2025 - 4:16PM

Townsville Bulletin

Windy.com is predicting heavy rainfall south of Townsville this afternoon.

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Long-range forecasters are predicting a significant rain event in Townsville this weekend, with some warning upwards of 2000mm to fall over the next week.

The Bureau of Meteorology says a complex low pressure system and trough off the North Tropical Coast is bringing extensive shower activity and cloud to the region.

Senior Meteorologist Daniel Hayes said a convergence of the low pressure system and a high pressure ridge that runs along the Queensland coast could cause enhanced rainfall of up to 500 mm.

“Even without any of these system becoming a cyclone, they are almost certainly going to bring quite significant rainfall across parts of the north,” he said.

“We’ve obviously already had a lot of rainfall without a cyclone and we are expecting to see more, certainly through the weekend and quite potentially continuing through into a good part of next week.”

Mr Hayes said there was a high chance of severe weather and thunderstorms as we head into the weekend.

“It is likely that we’ll probably see a severe weather warning issued either late Friday or sometime on Saturday as we start to see that rain come in and those heavier falls,” he said.

While there was a chance of rainfall totals of up to 2000mm, Mr Hayes said this would only occur if a number of things line up.

“We’ve got this low pressure system at the moment, we have another one that will potentially form further out into the Coral Sea, that one is likely at this point to move to the east or southeast so its not really have an impact on the coast, but its all along the monsoon trough,” he said.

“Another system that can form on that is potentially in the Gulf of Carpentaria area, we may see the gulf system form into a low and become a cyclone.

“But as we see the 13U (Queensland coast system) off the north tropical coast move closer to the coast and potentially pushed across the cape through the weekend, we may see it actually merge with the system that is developing in the Gulf and we could get some sort of tropical depression in the area.

“At the very least it’s likely we’ll have the monsoon trough being active through the area for a period of time and that will continue to enhance rainfall.

“If we were to get all of these things to line up in the same place for a number of days, then you could possibly go into that metre excess of rainfall but we do need quite a few things to line up to actually get those sort of numbers.”

Mr Hayes said an improvement in the region could begin from Tuesday or Wednesday next week but it’s likely some heavier falls may pop up “here and there.”

One forecasting group, Oz Industries Forecasting Weather Oz, says a high-energy wet period will occur over the next few days.

On Thursday morning, founder Stuart Williams posted to Facebook saying that it was “concerning” that a number of forecast models were predicting 500mm+ to fall over the next few days across North Queensland.

“That is actually concerning when all the models are suggesting the same sort of totals,” he said.

“To get an average rainfall total of those sorts of numbers indicates extreme rainfall potential over the next few days.

“Those persons along the coast should really have a flood plan.”

Your Weather Channel – JWC has suggested that some weather modelling for Townsville is showing 2000mm over the next week, while others are showing 1200mm.

Higgins Storm Chasing modelling is also showing similar numbers.

The BOM has issued a flood warning for parts of the north tropical coast, including the Herbert, Black, Ross and Bohle rivers.

Townsville City Council is removing stinger nets from beaches as a pre-emptive measure.

Emergency Management and Community Safety team manager and local disaster coordinator Zac Dawes said the council’s preparations were essential for the Townsville community.

“If you live in North Queensland, you know how important preparing your homes and businesses are for severe weather, and it’s no different at Council. Council’s teams are hard at work preparing equipment and infrastructure around the city to put our community in the best position possible,” Mr Dawes said.

A lifeguard watches over the beach at The Strand. Picture: Evan Morgan

The council is pulling stinger nets from The Strand, Balgal Beach, Magnetic Island and Pallarenda as a precaution.

“Teams across Council are also being arranged to potentially work across the weekend in areas like tree clearing, traffic control and providing sand for sandbags should the weather get worse,” Mr Dawes said.

“What we need across the community is for residents to stay informed on the current situation and to be preparing their homes in the same way. It’s better to be over-prepared than to be caught out if the weather worsens.”

Magnetic Island copped the majority of the rain overnight with the Bureau of Meteorology recording 89mm of rain in the past 24 hours.

Other areas such as Rollingstone received 65mm with North Ward getting 43mm of rain in the past 24 hours.

The road from Townsville to Cairns, which was shut on Wednesday, is now open and drivers are asked to proceed with caution.

The wet weather isn’t expected to halt anytime soon with heavy rainfall expected for Townsville with the chance of severe thunderstorms.

A chance of a thunderstorm looms for Thursday with the winds expected to pick up on Friday with a chance of 35mm of rain.

Saturday the chance of rain will increase to 60mm with the very high chance of rain continuing to Sunday.

A strong wind warning for the Townsville coast has been made for Thursday and Friday, with winds expected to reach 15 to 20 kilometres an hour.

Townsville has been listed as a flood watch area with the water levels of Ross, Bohle and Herbert river being monitored.

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the tropical low in the coral sea has drifted further off the Cairns coast reducing the chance of it becoming a tropical cyclone.

In the national weather forecast, the BOM identified the Whitsundays, the Central Coast and the Bowen areas as the spots with the highest rainfall.