Toowoomba federal election: Experts expect LNP’s Garth Hamilton to hold safe seat despite increased voter uncertainty

Voters are more uncertain about the major parties than they have in years, but a clear winner has been predicted by experts from Groom ahead of voting day.

Election experts have their say on outcome of Groom electorate.

Groom MP Garth Hamilton is in the box to reclaim his seat this weekend, but election analysts say the Australian voters are becoming far less reliable with their ballot habits.

Mr Hamilton, a former mining engineer, is expected to hold the safe conservative seat from a large array of candidates, including Labor, One Nation as well as other minor parties and independents.

But the University of Southern Queensland’s Professor Geoff Cockfield said it was not impossible that the LNP candidate might need preferences to get over the line, something that has not occurred in Groom since the party was formed in 2008.

“It would be a significant thing to have to get to preferences (for a winner), then the interesting thing is looking to the next election to see if this is a blip or not,” he said.

“What I’m thinking is we are in uncertain voting times, we’re looking at increasing uncertainty and less attachment to major parties.”

Prof Cockfield said he would expect to see gains for Labor and the United Australia Party, adding that the primary votes for independent candidates Suzie Holt and Kirstie Smolenski could surprise the electorate.

“Let’s say if Garth was in the high 40s, it’s going to depend who comes in second — you’d certainly expect that plenty of Suzie preferences would go back to Garth,” he said.

QUT Adjunct Associate Professor and former state Labor Minister John Mickel said while he agreed Mr Hamilton was a near certainty to win, he had been impressed by the independents’ campaigns.

“(Ms Holt) is a viable candidate and is well-connected in the community,” he said.

“She seems to be someone who is very active in the community.

“The other thing she’s starting to get is media attention, it’s something everybody craves in a positive sense.”

Prof Mickel also said the “freedom movement” parties like the UAP, One Nation and the Australian Federation Party could also draw extra support in Groom.

Community and Public Sector Union Toowoomba representative Renea McCauley has expressed concerns about job losses across the region if the Coalition continues with a plan to cut $2.3bn from the public sector by raising its "efficiency dividend".

CONCERNS OVER PUBLIC SECTOR CUTS

The union representing Toowoomba’s public servants claims there will be significant local job losses if a re-elected Coalition continues with a plan to cut $2.3bn from the public sector.

The Community and Public Sector Union’s Toowoomba representative Renea McCauley said workers had been left concerned by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg’s announcement this week that the current government would slash public service agencies if given a fourth term.

The savings, which underpin Mr Frydenberg’s promised budget repair, would occur by increasing the public sector “efficiency dividend” to two per cent for three years.

The Coalition said this would not lead to significant job losses or impacts on services, but Ms McCauley said the level of cut was too great for that to be possible.

“Those levels of cuts can’t be done without cuts to public servants,” she said.

“Public servants care about their communities because they’re members of their communities.

“It’s going to impact small businesses and will hurt our community.

“The government doesn’t know – they’ve announced this overall cut, but they haven’t actually said this is how much each area is going to (be) cut.”

The Coalition’s Groom candidate Garth Hamilton spent the last days of the campaign promising more funds to regional health training, spruiking a plan for a new hub in southern Queensland to support students intending to practice rurally.

Originally published as Toowoomba federal election: Experts expect LNP’s Garth Hamilton to hold safe seat despite increased voter uncertainty