Groom votes: Toowoomba independent Suzie Holt jumps ahead of Labor to secure 13 swing against LNP

In a historic result for the previously very safe seat of Groom, an independent has leapfrogged Labor to record an incredible 13 per cent swing against incumbent Garth Hamilton. See what this means for our region moving forward. 

Independent candidate for Groom Suzie Holt arrives to cast her vote in the federal election at Fairholme College. Picture: Kevin Farmer

Groom can no longer be called a safe seat for the LNP, with high-profile independent Suzie Holt sweeping preferences to finish second in a result that has never been seen before in Toowoomba.

The key bastion of conservative politics in Queensland is now under threat at future elections, after the Australian Electoral Commission revealed on Tuesday Ms Holt had finished in the final pairing on preferences — just seven points behind incumbent Garth Hamilton.

This is despite Ms Holt finishing fourth in the primary vote count, amassing just 8.3 per cent of the vote.

Preliminary estimates from the ABC suggested she will collect 75 per cent of preferences to leapfrog both One Nation and Labor into second, where she trails Mr Hamilton 57-43.

The two-candidate preferred swing has gone from about seven per cent against the LNP when matched with Labor to an incredible 13 per cent swing when compared against Ms Holt.

It is easily the best performance by an independent in the seat and the worst swing a Coalition candidate has suffered since the 1988 by-election — when Groom flipped from being a National stronghold to a Liberal acquisition.

It’s also the first time Labor has not finished in the top two in Groom at a federal election.

Ms Holt called the result a “win for the community” and reflected the work of her team of volunteers during the campaign leading up to May 21.

“From the beginning, our campaign was driven by the community and focused on the specific concerns of our region,” she said.

“What this result shows is that a tailored approach is what our electorate wants.

“They don’t want to hear the same things they hear every election coming from the major parties.”

Mr Hamilton, who became the first LNP candidate to require preferences for victory in Groom since the party’s unification in 2008, said he would wait to comment after all votes had been counted.

“My focus absolutely remains on working hard to represent the people of Groom,” he told The Chronicle.

With a significant amount of all vote types now counted, Mr Hamilton’s primary vote is down nearly 10 points to just 43 .7 per cent.

This should be a warning sign for the LNP, according to legendary ABC election analyst Antony Green, who told The Chronicleit was a clear repudiation of the major parties.

“The issue is the LNP’s first preference vote — it’s down 10 per cent,” he said.

“That’s the story there, and that made it possible for this result to happen.

“The fact that this has happened is a sign of the decline of the major party vote across the country.”

ABC's election analyst Antony Green. Picture: Supplied

Mr Green, who has covered more than 70 federal, state and territory elections since 1991, said the result in Groom exemplified what had become a “remarkable election”.

“It’s highly unusual to see a candidate go from fourth (to the final pairing) – I’ve never seen a candidate do it from single digits,” he said.

“The preference flows are much stronger (against the LNP) because Labor has been preferenced for the first time — that makes the preference flows much stronger.

“What I’ll presume is the others would’ve put Holt ahead of the One Nation candidate (Grant Abraham), and then their preferences would’ve flowed to her to put her over the top of Labor.”

University of Southern Queensland’s Honorary Professor Geoff Cockfield, who had previously called Ms Holt a candidate to watch ahead of May 21, said the outcome had big implications for not only the seat but also the candidates involved heading into the 2025 election.

“It does show there is general change happening in terms of attachment to major parties,” he said.

“If Suzie was to turn around, keep her network and stand again, presumably without so much competition, she could increase her primary vote and close the gap further next time.

“It now, along with other seats, becomes one that wouldn’t be taken for granted (by the LNP).”

OUR SAY: THIS WAS A REMARKABLE ELECTION RESULT

Tom Gillespie

Make no mistake about what we’ve witnessed coming out of the federal election count in Groom — this was one of the most extraordinary results our seat has seen in decades, possibly ever.

For the first time, an independent will finish in the final pairing against the LNP, delivering a 13 per cent swing and edging Groom closer to marginal seat status.

Suzie Holt achieved just 8.3 per cent of the primary vote, then she received three quarters of all remaining votes once it was clear she had enough to get ahead of Labor’s Gen Allpass to contest against incumbent LNP Groom MP Garth Hamilton.

Ms Holt, who ran a strong campaign based on grassroots community engagement and advocacy for major projects like a new hospital, capitalised on growing major party dissatisfaction.

It’s obvious that very few people actually gave her their first preference — but many more gave her their second, third and even fourth preference.

That was the difference, and it’s a perfect example of our electoral system at work.

Conversely, the electorate delivered a sharp rebuke of both Labor and the LNP — particularly the latter.

Several figures inside the conservative party have been horrified by the result, and it’s pretty clear Mr Hamilton has work to do to earn back the trust of locals.

Party officials will assure the public and media that they don’t take seats like Groom for granted, but it seems voters aren’t so sure.

So where to from here? Well, I’m hopeful we’ll see increased political attention on Groom in this next term.

Why shouldn’t we? We’re a regional powerhouse that deserves key road, rail, water and health infrastructure to not only meet our needs, but also unleash our potential.

Originally published as Groom votes: Toowoomba independent Suzie Holt jumps ahead of Labor to secure 13 swing against LNP