Summer outlook: When Toowoomba is set to heat up, rain

Summer is considered the season for Queensland’s peak severe weather to occur, and now we can reveal what the Toowoomba region can expect for the remainder of January. Details here.

The sunshine state faces its most severe weather conditions every summer, and now a senior meteorologist has revealed the upcoming climate outlook for Toowoomba.

Bureau of Meteorology senior meteorologist Harry Clark said while summer was often Queensland’s severest weather season, the week ahead for Toowoomba looked “benign”.

Australia's temperature, year by year. The brown columns denote El Nino years and the blue columns denote La Nina years. La Nina years are generally cooler, but 2021 was the warmest La Nina year we've had. Source: Bureau of Meteorology

With partly cloudy conditions and above average temperatures forecast for the coming days, the senior meteorologist said there were no extreme warnings expected in the short-term.

“It’s a warmer start to the week with one to two degrees above average for this time of year,” he said.

“Toowoomba is expected to reach its peak (for the week) at 31 degrees on Tuesday before dropping off by Friday.

“As always, we are in summer which is our peak severe weather season, so we encourage people to stay up to date with the forecast going forward.”

Embracing the sunshine are (back from left) Scout the dog, Greg Hamer, Kelly Campion, Mark, Leslie Smith and Mick in Laurel Bank Park. Picture: Nev Madsen.

Mr Clark said temperatures were expected to hit 30 degrees on Monday and 29 on Wednesday, before dropping to 25 degrees and lower from Friday.

He said while there was a very slight chance of a shower and thunderstorm occurring north of Toowoomba on Monday, it appeared to be very isolated.

The next possible shower could occur in the Toowoomba area on Thursday.

The negative IOD is almost over, but the La Nina weather event could last a few more months. Pictures: Bureau of Meteorology

“We have no strong signal for wetter or drier climate conditions for the next few months across the Toowoomba region,” Mr Clark said.

“At this stage, we couldn’t pick any days of severe thunderstorms or high heat, but we certainly know we can see (severe thunderstorms and heatwaves) in the summer months.

“There’s a slightly higher chance than normal of exceeding the maximum temperatures from the February to April period, so we can expect it to be slightly on the warmer side for the next few months.”

It comes after the latest climate update released by the bureau predicted La Nina weather to return to neutral between April and May this year.

While Mr Clark said it was too early to tell, other forecasters have predicted El Nino conditions could prevail in autumn with potentially “serious” bushfire risks on the horizon.