Trump’s American politics will soon have an effect on Australians | Alexander Downer
However you feel about Donald Trump, you can’t deny his strength and courage, or the influence his reign will have as far as Australia, writes Alexander Downer.
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The inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States is the most remarkable political comeback I have ever seen.
Whatever you think of Donald Trump, you cannot deny his extraordinary resilience and determination. Everything has been thrown at him.
His political opponents have hysterically denounced him as an anti-democratic fascist, as a serial liar, as a fool and an incompetent, as misogynist and racist. That is, pretty much every fault a human being could possibly have.
And then there are the court cases. He’s been charged with any manner of offences and even found guilty of paying hush money out of campaign funds to a former prostitute. He even narrowly survived an assassination attempt.
And what is more, he lost the 2020 presidential election. Yet there he is, proclaimed the 47th president and the most powerful person on earth. Whatever I think of President Trump personally – and let’s face it, by our standards he is pretty vulgar – you cannot help but admire someone with such strength and courage.
It will be interesting to see what effect a Trump administration has on Australia. After all, Australia largely embraces American social fashions. You can see that in the sort of language we increasingly use. Go to a cafe, bistro or restaurant and the wait staff will not only say “you’re welcome” when you thank them but as you depart they will say “have a nice day”. They’re friendly American expressions and they mean well. I don’t object to them but it’s just noteworthy that they are imported from America.
So too are some of our corporate and public service ideas of management. For example, we have embraced the American fashion for DEI (diversity, equity and inclusion) policies. That is, policies which discriminate against people – particularly white men – on the basis of their innate characteristics. Once we were all passionately opposed to discrimination on the basis of innate characteristics but now our corporate world has embraced a doctrine of discriminating against people in order to eliminate discrimination! It’s one of the many nutty ideas which have gained traction in Australia and have been imported from America.
Since discrimination against people on the basis of their innate characteristics is morally wrong, it’s encouraging that President Trump is totally opposed to it. Since his election, American corporates have been sprinting away from DEI policies, even closing down their DEI units. Expect Australian corporate to follow suit very soon.
Expect a fairly radical change to American domestic economic policy. The Trump administration will try to address burgeoning government deficits and debt by massive cuts to government programs. Expect those cuts to be radical and controversial, driven by Elon Musk. In October-December of last year, the US government recorded a deficit of $711 billion – a 39 per cent increase on the same period the previous year. US government debt is now 120 per cent of GDP. The cost of servicing that debt is almost as much as the US defence budget.
Fashionable subsidies for expensive intermittent power sources such as wind and solar will be substantially cut if not eliminated. At the same time, corporate taxation will be reduced in order to encourage businesses to invest. In a sense, economic policy will change from being focused on social and environmental programs to generating higher rates of economic growth. That growth will be driven, unlike in Australia, by the private sector.
In foreign policy, I’ve never believed that President Trump was, as his critics claim, an isolationist. He’s a proponent of the concept of peace through strength. He will try to force Iran to wind back support for its anti-Israeli proxies in the Middle East and encourage the development of closer Arab-Israeli relations – not least, to get Saudi Arabia to recognise Israel and become part of what are known as the Abraham accords. I expect there to be a ceasefire in Ukraine but not a peace agreement because President Trump will make it clear to Vladimir Putin that America will ensure Russia can never take over the whole of Ukraine. Expect President Trump to give that guarantee.
As for China, so powerful is the American economy it has the potential to severely damage if not strangle China’s economy. Trump will threaten to do that unless China adheres to international trade rules and also stops threatening Taiwan. Trump’s China policy will be good for Australia unless China decides to confront the Trump administration and ends up with huge tariffs on China’s export to the United States. If that happens, Australian exports to China will suffer and suffer a lot.
When you’re evaluating the performance of the Trump administration over the next year or two, remember, although President Trump won the election comprehensively, 93 per cent of voters in Washington DC voted for Kamala Harris. That includes the huge Washington-based press corps.
These people are almost to a person anti-Republican, pro-Democrat commentators. That could affect your perception of how well the policies of the administration are fairing. Our US-based diplomats and journalists need to be careful where they get their ideas from.
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Originally published as Trump’s American politics will soon have an effect on Australians | Alexander Downer