YouGov poll: Steven Miles more unpopular than Campbell Newman before 2014 election defeat

Six months before the state election, an exclusive Courier-Mail poll reveals Steven Miles is now the most unpopular Queensland Premier in at least a decade.

Steven Miles’s popularity has plunged to a record low as David Crisafulli’s net satisfaction rating increases.

Steven Miles is the least popular Queensland premier in at least the last decade, with voters less happy with him than they were with Campbell Newman before he was ousted.

The new poll presents the worst result for a premier in the history of YouGov’s polling for The Courier-Mail.

In a crushing blow to Mr Miles, voters are less satisfied with the way he is running the state than they were with his predecessor Annastacia Palaszczuk, just four months after she was turfed out by Labor heavyweights fearing an election wipe-out.

The YouGov poll of 1092 voters between April 9 and 17 shows Mr Miles’ net satisfaction rating - the difference between those satisifed and those unsatisfied - is now -22 per cent, worse than Ms Palaszczuk’s -20 per cent in the last YouGov poll before her resignation.

It is also worse than the -20 per cent satisfaction rating Mr Newman recorded in August 2014 — five months before the LNP was turfed out of government after one term.

At that time 56 per cent of voters were dissatisfied with Mr Newman while 36 per cent were comfortable with the way he was going. The other 8 per cent were uncommitted.

For Mr Miles just 25 per cent are satisfied, with 47 per cent unhappy and another 28 per cent yet to make up their minds.

It comes despite the government’s efforts to pump up its credentials on the crime, housing and cost-of-living amid community anger over safety and the economy.

Steven Miles’s popularity has plunged to record lows six months before the state election. Picture: Tertius Pickard

The hesitation over Mr Miles’ performance is rife even among Labor supporters, with 31 per cent on the fence.

Overall his net satisfaction among Labor supporters is +35, which pales in comparison to Mr Crisafulli’s net satisfaction rating of +60 among LNP voters.

Mr Miles’ net satisfaction rating is significantly better among younger Queenslanders aged 18 to 34 (+2), while those aged 35 and up are resoundingly unhappy (-30).

Men are more dissatisfied with Mr Miles than women, giving him a net satisfaction rating of -30 compared to -16 among women.

His standing as preferred Premier has also nosedived, with Opposition Leader David Crisafulli now leading as the man Queenslanders want to lead the state by a margin of 13 points.

Mr Miles standing on the measure of preferred Premier, at 27 to Mr Crisafulli’s 40, is worse than Mr Newman (ahead 45-40) and Anna Bligh (trailed 43-50) before their respective brutal electoral losses.

It is the second consecutive YouGov poll where Mr Crisafulli has led as the preferred Premier, signalling the decision to replace Ms Palaszczuk with Mr Miles may not have worked as intended.

Ms Palaszczuk and Mr Crisafulli were neck-and-neck on the measure of preferred Premier in the March and October YouGov polls, with the LNP leader pipping the Premier by just two points toward the end of her tenure.

The near-11-year reign of Ms Palaszczuk as Labor leader (nine of those as Premier) came to an end in December after union and party heavyweights pushed her to consider her future for the sake of the party amid concerns her sliding popularity put the government at risk of losing in October.

It was hoped a new Premier would give the government a positive bump among voters, but that has not eventuated.

More voters have swung back to being undecided on who they would prefer as Premier, with 33 per cent now on the fence up from 28 per cent in the October 2023 YouGov poll.

And it’s Labor voters who are more uncommitted than LNP supporters, with 30 per cent on the fence compared to 19 per cent respectively. Women are also less convinced about who they prefer, with 40 per cent uncommitted compared to 26 per cent of men.

David Crisafulli is now the most popular LNP Opposition leader in the last decade. Picture: Lachie Millard

Mr Crisafulli’s net satisfaction rating has increased to +14. A total of 40 per cent of voters polled were happy with his performance, up from 37 in October.

His net satisfaction rating is the highest for an LNP Opposition leader in the last decade, with his contemporaries Deb Frecklington and Lawrence Springborg never hitting a net satisfaction rating higher than +6 or +8 respectively.

The portion dissatisfied with him has not shifted, but a significant 34 per cent of voters are still on the fence about how the feel about Mr Crisafulli’s performance.

Mr Crisafulli has reduced the portion of uncommitted voters in successive YouGov polls, with 46 per cent undecided in early 2022.

Women are more on the fence about Mr Crisafulli than men, with 45 per cent of females polled uncommitted compared to 23 per cent of men.

The lack of opinion about Mr Crisafulli just six months before an election could be dangerous, with Labor insiders saying it leaves the door open to the government defining the Opposition Leader in the minds of voters deeper into the campaign.

Originally published as YouGov poll: Steven Miles more unpopular than Campbell Newman before 2014 election defeat