Cyclone Alfred: Flood risk revealed for homes as TC Alfred’s arrival delayed
The latest mapping shows Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely to arrive later Friday than first expected as the council releases mapping showing the Sunshine Coast homes most at risk.
Sunshine Coast
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Experts say the clear path of Tropical Cyclone Alfred may not emerge until six hours before the category two system is due to cross the Queensland coast.
The latest modelling released by the weather bureau on Thursday morning shows the cyclone will cross around Brisbane sometime on Friday, later than originally expected.
Cyclone Alfred was about 325km east of Brisbane at 4.51am on Thursday, and had slowed to 7km/h with the latest Bureau of Meteorology track map showing the system hitting the Stradbroke islands first.
Authorities have warned residents should bunker down at home and those with no other option should head to evacuation centres.
The first cyclone to hit the region in 50 years could yet strengthen into a category 3 system before it makes landfall.
The official weather warning zone stretches between Double Island Point and the NSW border.
It was still packing sustained winds near the centre of 95 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 130 kilometres per hour. It was moving west, southwest.
“Tropical Cyclone Alfred will continue its approach towards the southeast Queensland coast, with the far western edge already impacting the coast from about Coolangatta to Ballina.
“The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the coast during Friday, most likely between Maroochydore and Coolangatta,’’ the BOM advice said.
Sunshine Coast schools and day care centres will close ahead of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Premier David Crisafulli has announced, as residents are urged to prepare for landfall.
The Sunshine Coast Council has released its storm tide mapping that reveals the region’s most at-risk homes.
Flood mapping
The Sunshine Coast Council’s storm tide mapping has revealed where the region’s most at risk properties are ahead of the cyclone’s predicted landfall.
The maps show how high storm surges may get above the highest astronomical tide.
At half a metre above the highest astronomical tide about 1600 homes could be impacted, with 200 of those facing inundation of more than 300mm.
A metre high storm surge would likely impact 4600 homes, with 670 possibly facing more than 300mm of water inundation.
The Noosa Council also released information regarding the storm tide, stating the inundation was expected to be shallow.
“Storm surge caused by Tropical Cyclone Alfred coinciding with high tides around 12.41am Thursday, and 1pm Thursday, may cause some inundation of low-lying areas of Noosaville, Tewantin, Noosa North Shore and Boreen Point - areas that often experience inundation during lower-level river floods,” the report stated.
Sunshine Coast Superintendent Craig Hawkins updated media on Tropical Cyclone Alfred Wednesday afternoon.
“Although the modelling suggests that it might dip below the Sunshine Coast we’ve seen it change previously and it is still very unpredictable,” he said.
“We strongly encourage people not to become complacent and to still consider their preparedness for what might happen.
“If the storm does not dip we are still at risk.”
The Bureau of Meteorology’s technical bulletin suggests there is a possibility the system could intensify before crossing the coast potentially in Brisbane’s south about 7am on Friday, with wind gusts of up to 150km/h expected.
“The possibility of the system reaching a low-end category 3 strength before making landfall cannot be ruled out, but remains a low risk,” the report says.
Along with the possibility of a storm surge that could affect low-lying coastal suburbs, heavy rain is expected across the region, particularly to the southern side of the centre of the cyclone.
Falls of up to 400mm are anticipated as Alfred makes landfall on Friday, with six-hourly totals of between 200mm and 250mm, leading to possible life-threatening flash flooding.
The anticipated 7am landfall time has shifted from 1am as a result of the slow speed of Alfred’s approach, meaning it would miss high tide, which would have increased the flood risk.
It warns SEQ Qld and northern NSW could expect winds gusts of up to 120 km/h, from Double Island Point to island to Grafton with coastal and island communities most at risk.
“Destructive wind gusts of up to 155 kilometres per hour may develop about coastal and island locations near and to the south of the track from Thursday afternoon as Alfred's destructive core approaches and crosses the coast.
“A dangerous storm tide may occur along the coastal foreshore, particularly in areas near and south of the cyclone centre, if the time of coastal crossing coincides with the high tide during Thursday night or early Friday morning.
School closures
On Wednesday morning, Mr Crisafulli announced schools in impacted areas across the south east would be closed on Thursday and Friday.
The high tides combined with the cyclone are expected to cause minor flooding.
Damaging wind leading to significant beach erosion is likely for the open beaches between Sandy Cape and Grafton, and further south over New South Wales coast.
Heavy to locally intense rainfall, which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding may occur, particularly near and south of the cyclone centre.
Earlier, Sunshine Coast Mayor and Local Disaster Management Group chairwoman Rosanna Natoli said the time for residents to prepare themselves, their families and their properties was now.
“Please review our flood mapping on council’s website to understand the potential impacts on your property,” she said.
She labelled the current weather as “the calm before the storm”, with damaging gusts up to 130 km/h expected along coastal areas and heavy to intense rainfall as well as high tides and dangerous surf to possibly cause flooding, including dangerous flash flooding.
Ms Natoli said council was taking the weather event seriously.
Speaking Tuesday afternoon, Mr Crisafulli said it could cross in an area from just north of Noosa to just south of the Queensland border, he said.
The major impact will be well south of where it crosses.
It is expected to intensify to a category two system.
On Tuesday, police said Golden Beach and Pelican Waters were the “areas of concern” for the Sunshine Coast.
Residents in other coastal and low-lying areas have also been encouraged to secure their homes and make arrangements to have a safe place to evacuate to if needed.
Acting Chief Superintendent Garrath Channells said driving could become “extremely hazardous” over the next few days.
“Even just 15 centimetres of water can be enough to sweep a vehicle away. Your car can’t protect you from floodwater, and the risks are simply not worth it,” Acting Chief Superintendent Channells said.
Closures and cancellations
Courthouses from Gympie to the Gold Coast, including the Maroochydore, Caloundra, Noosa and Nambour courthouses, will also be closed on Thursday and Friday.
In a direction sent out by Chief Magistrate Janelle Brassington on Wednesday, all courts stretching from Gympie to the Gold Coast were directed to close Thursday and Friday due to warnings issued by The Bureau on TC Alfred.
The Sunshine Coast Cricket Association has also cancelled men’s fixtures for Saturday, March 8 and women’s and junior finals for Sunday, March 9.
Australia Zoo released a statement on Wednesday afternoon, reassuring people the 24 hour wildlife hospital remained open as the zoo monitored the cyclone to determine whether closure of the site would be necessary.
Sunshine Coast Health
Sunshine Coast Health Chief Executive Dr Peter Gillies said the emergency department and emergency surgeries would remain open throughout the cyclone.
Vulnerable members of the community, including those on dialysis, requiring oxygen and pregnant people nearing term will either be brought into the hospital or provided with nearby accommodation.
Dr Gillies said Sunshine Coast Health was working to identify non-urgent appointments to arrange telehealth options.
Inpatients who are able to be safely discharged will be able to return to their homes.
Sandbag locations
A number of sites across the Sunshine Coast and Noosa regions have opened to allow residents to pick up free sandbags.
Sunshine Coast Council locations will operate from 8am-8pm while Noosa Council locations will operation for 24 hours, excluding the McKinnon Dr sports complex from 5.30am-10.30pm.
Disaster hub warnings
The Sunshine Coast Council Disaster Hub currently lists five warnings for the region including a coastal hazard, flood watch, hazardous surf and marine wind warnings.
Noosa Council also has a number of warnings on its Noosa Emergency Dashboard.
A prepare now warning has also been issued, encouraging residents to fill cars with fuel, tie down loose outdoor furniture and play equipment.
Residents are encouraged to fill bathtubs and containers with clean water.
People living near the beach and coastal waterways have been warned a storm surge could cause flooding and to have an evacuation plan in place.
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