State’s eerie 2022 cyclone scenarios revealed

While not predicting the effects of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, an unearthed government report from 2022 details how the heavily-populated South East Queensland region would cope with a major storm.

Half-a-million homes in southeast Queensland could suffer damage if a tropical cyclone smashes the region as a category two storm, government modelling predicts.

While not predicting the effects of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, a Severe Wind Hazard Report undertaken for the state government in 2022 detailed how the heavily-populated south east Queensland region would cope with a major storm.

In one prediction – dubbed scenario five – the crossing of a category two system near Bribie Island resulted in 502,600 homes suffering negligible damage and 4429 homes experiencing extreme damage.

Redlands and Noosa were found to have the highest proportion of high risk older properties, at 20 per cent and 17 per cent respectively.

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A satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Alfred on Monday.

The 2022 cyclone modelling appears eerily similar to the path of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which is expected to make landfall in the region by Thursday as a category two system – packing gale-force winds and up to 600mm of rain.

The 2022 report details “plausible tropical cyclone scenarios” that could happen in south east Queensland.

“The scale of impacts from each scenario are contingent on the characteristics of the tropical cyclone itself – size, intensity, landfall location – and on the landscape in which buildings are located,” it noted.

“A tropical cyclone passing over the northern council areas will result in overall lower damage, but that may still be overwhelming for that community.

“Where there are heavily urbanised areas, there is typically lower damage, due to the lower incident wind speeds likely to be experienced.

“That contrasts with areas in the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast hinterland, where local accelerations over the steep topography will amplify the level of damage to houses in those areas.”

The reports suggests hinterland areas might fare worse than urban areas due to higher wind speeds. (File photo by Ian Hitchcock/Getty Images

In the 2022 scenario, the crossing of a category two storm over Bribie Island would result in the main effects of the system being felt at the southern end of Moreton Bay around Macleay and Russell Islands and the northern suburbs of Gold Coast.

“Parts of Macleay and Russell Islands sustain extensive damage from winds, but would also likely sustain substantial damage from storm tide in this scenario,” the scenario tipped.

“In Redland, around 23,000 houses would sustain moderate or higher damage.

“The eastern parts of Moreton Bay Regional Council east of the M1 Motorway sustain the greatest damage on the northern side of the region – Burpengary and Beachmere – with just over 1000 houses sustaining moderate damage.

“In Brisbane, the corridor from Manly to Mount Gravatt is the area of greatest impact.”

Originally published as State’s eerie 2022 cyclone scenarios revealed