‘Leave or stay’: Concern for islands, bay communities as Alfred hones in
South East Queensland residents have been urged to prepare now for the impending arrival of Tropical Cyclone Alfred. LATEST UPDATES
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Millions of Queenslanders are being told to prepare amid warnings of the first cyclone to cross the state’s southern coast in half a century.
Tropical Cyclone Alfred could make landfall in South East Queensland by Thursday as a category 2 system – packing gale-force winds and up to 600mm of rain.
In its latest report, at 10.56am on Monday, the Bureau of Meteorology said Alfred is a category 1 system about 465km east northeast of Brisbane and 430km east northeast of Maroochydore, heading southeast.
BE PREPARED: CYCLONE SAFETY GUIDE
It is forecast to slow down and turn westward from Tuesday, moving towards the southern Queensland coast, and is then expected to make landfall somewhere along the coast from Bundaberg to the Gold Coast on Thursday as a possible category 2 system.
Gales with damaging winds to 120km/h are expected along the coast from Tewantin to Grafton in NSW, as well as a large and powerful swell and abnormally high tides.
“Heavy rainfall is forecast for southeast Queensland and northeastern New South Wales from Wednesday as Alfred approaches the coast,” the report said.
“Heavy to locally intense rainfall which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding near and south of the system centre as Alfred approaches and crosses the coast late on Thursday.”
The Bureau issued its first official “cyclone advice” for Queensland over Alfred Monday morning.
Speaking to media at 1pm Monday, Premier David Crisafulli said weather modelling overnight had indicated the likelihood of a cyclone crossing the coast had increased.
“My message to Queenslanders today is please be prepared,” he said.
“We are putting all the preparations in place and we are asking all Queenslanders to do the same.
“But we are dealing with a very heavily populated part of the state, a state that hasn’t seen a cyclone for many years – in fact many decades – get this close to the coast, or predicted to.
“So it is important that Queenslanders absorb those messages so we can continue to relay them to the state.”
Mr Crisafulli said Tropical Cyclone Alfred was about 450km east of Brisbane and had been downgraded to a Category 1.
But he said it modelling showed it would likely intensify again to go back to a Category 2.
RELATED: 1.88m properties in path of cyclone Alfred’s fury
Mr Crisafulli said there will be three stages to the weather event – big surf and erosion, damaging winds, and flooding.
Large swell with waves larger than 4m were expected to be recorded off Brisbane this morning.
Mr Crisafulli said the immediate priority was islands and bay communities.
“Anyone who lives on those bay islands … we are asking them to begin – with earnestness – to start making their plans and considerations,” he said.
“Ferry services are continuing at the moment but that could change in the very near future.
“We’re asking people who live on those islands to make a conscious decision … to either leave or stay.
“It is important they make that decision fairly soon because that window will close.”
Mr Crisafulli said they are using the window to prepare island communities with generators and health care workers in the event they are needed.
The second immediate priority areas were low-lying areas on beach fronts or on canals, with particular concern for Golden Beach on Sunshine Coast.
“Because the timing of that crossing remains variable, there is the prospect that it could cross on a high tide.
“That would provide a real complexity, that would provide some storm surge issues.
“Storm surges are a significant concern.”
Mr Criasfulli said he urged Seqwater to communicate with the community when dam releases would occur as huge amounts of rain are expected to drop on the region.
It comes after a Commission of Inquiry into the deadly Brisbane 2011 floods found the dam gates were opened at the wrong time, contributing to the city’s inundation.
Mr Criasfulli said he has asked Seqwater to communicate any dam releases with the community.
“Seqwater has procedures they have to follow following the Commission of Inquiry,” Mr Criusfulli said.
“I’m urging them to be upfront with people, explain what they are, explain what those percentages are, and when that occurs.
“And obviously things that impact that is the potential of rainfall... but it’s important they share that with Queenslanders.”
In a statement, a Seqwater spokesman said the Flood Operations Centre has moved to ‘Alert’ status and is working to prepare for “wet weather-related impacts”.
Wivenhoe Dam is at 87 per cent capacity, with Somerset Dam at 80 per cent, and North Pine Dam at 52.9 per cent, with the overall SEQ Water Grid storage capacity currently at 85 per cent. There are no planned releases at this stage.
Mr Crisafulli said the opportunity for island residents to leave could close within the next day or so.
“We are pre-deploying assets and people into those areas with the knowledge we may not be able to get somebody there by tomorrow.”
Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Sue Oates said the system is currently moving in a south-easterly direction at 20km/h, but is expected to turn in the next 24 hours.
Ms Oates said there were signs the system could re-intensify to a category 2 cyclone as it heads toward the coast, potentially crossing on Thursday or Friday.
Damaging winds were expected to set in from Wednesday.
“As the system moves closer to the coast … those winds are possible through Thursday and into Friday,” Ms Oates said.
Ms Oates said heavy to intense rainfall was also expected in South East Queensland areas, bringing an increased risk of flash flooding and the likelihood of major flooding.
“We’ve currently got a Flood Watch current for areas from around the Bundaberg area south to the border – that includes catchments from the Mary River, through the Sunshine Coast rivers, includes the Brisbane River catchment, and down to our border catchment areas of the Logan and Albert Rivers,” she said.
“This situation continues to be an evolving citation and we advise communities to maintain an awareness of the current warnings.”
Mr Crisafulli said additional workers were on standby in areas across the state.
He said the government had met with telecommunications companies to speak to them about them providing extra capacity to put emergency messages out.
“There could come the time we need to send out many millions of text messages in a very short window and it’s important the telcos are able to do that as quickly as they can,” he said.
Mr Crisafulli urged all Queenslanders to speak to their colleagues and neighbours to make sure they were aware of the cyclone.
“It is important that everybody knows that this is a serious impact and the modelling does show that it is likely to cross the coast and therefore we want people to be as well prepared as they can be,” he said.
Schools will be open tomorrow and Mr Crisafulli said the government would update Queenslanders every afternoon about any potential closures.
He said the likelihood of schools closing was “very strong”.
“You won’t get a mad scramble where in the morning you’ll get a frantic message that school is closed.
“But we’re not at that stage yet, school is open tomorrow.”
He said people could log on to closures.qld.edu.au to check.
Mr Crisafulli said shipping operations off Mooloolaba had been suspended.
He said there were three cruise ships off the Queensland coast and two were looking for alternate ports. One would come into the Port of Brisbane and offload passengers.
All CityCat and ferry services will be suspended from tonight until further notice so the vessels can be moved to safety.
According to Brisbane City Council, 11 CityCats will be removed from the water and placed on hardstands while the remaining 16 will be placed inside protected docks.
The five KittyCats will be securely moored at a marina.
The last CityCat services will depart Northshore Hamilton and University of Queensland at 10.15pm tonight and the last Kittycat cross river services will leave by 11.40pm.
The 22 terminals between UQ St Lucia and Northshore Hamilton will be closed at midnight tonight.
Mr Crisafulli said airlines were working with the Bureau of Meteorology and at this stage would remain open.
Amity Trader Barge and Ferries have advised the final passenger ferry from Coochiemudlo Island in Moreton Bay will leave at 6.45pm on Tuesday and resume on Friday, weather permitting.
State Emergency Service chief officer Mark Armstrong said there had been 450 requests for assistance since Thursday, with most in the last 24 hours.
“The SES are preparing to move personnel, equipment and resources to support the communities where we think they will be needed,” he said.
“And that includes our storm damage repair teams, our flood boat teams and chainsaw teams.”
Mr Armstrong urged Queenslanders to prepare now.
“Sandbagging early is better than doing it when the rain is falling and the wind is blowing,” he said.
“You can access the sandbagging locations run by local government, the best place to find information is the local government websites.”
Mr Crisafulli said Queensland has experienced challenges with coastal erosion after reports of 15m swells off the coast of Wide Bay.
“We’ve seen some significant erosion in little parts of the Great Keppel Island, and people would have seen breakthrough on the north part of Bribie (Island) through the Pumicestone Passage into Caloundra, so that is an area that we’re definitely of concern and we’re certainly watching,” he said.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton on Monday said he would be receiving a briefing on Cyclone Alfred and warned people from Bundaberg to Byron Bay they were in the firing line.
“It’s always hard because we don’t know exactly where this thing is going to track and hopefully it runs out of steam, but that doesn’t seem to be the indication at the moment,” he said.
“So I just say to people, listen to the advice that’s being offered by the authorities at the moment, and please act and prepare and make sure that you’ve got in place the plans that are necessary to deal with an event.”
Acting Commissioner Shane Chelepy urged people to start preparing now.
“Cyclones in south east Queensland are not typical but are not unprecedented, and for that reason we ask locals from K’gari area right through to the border, to understand your local risks,” Mr Chelepy said.
“Use this time to prepare yourself, prepare your homes.”
Mr Chelepy said they were working with local councils from Noosa to the Gold Coast to “deeply understand” the impact of storm surges.
“If you live in a low-lying area or foreshore, I ask you start preparing your home and consider the impacts this cyclone might have for you.”
Mr Chelepy expected barge and ferry services to stop running to island communities within the next 24-36 hours.
“I ask anyone who lives on the islands to consider your own risks.
“There will come a point where it’ll be too late to leave those islands.
“Our number one priority during an event like this is safety and preserving human life.”
Mr Chelepy said authorities were ensuring swift water rescue and SES crews were ready.
He said he had been in contact with the National Emergency Management Agency and the Australian Defence Force to co-ordinate planning ahead of the weather event.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Felim Hanniffy said a little upper trough moving across southeast Australia was helping drag Alfred southeast.
The warmer than usual waters south have also let Alfred maintain its status as a tropical cyclone.
Mr Crisafulli said he had spoken to the Brisbane Lions CEO ahead of the team’s season opener at The Gabba on Thursday.
“We will give them the information and Lion and the AFL will be able to make an informed decision... there’s plenty of time.”
LATEST WEATHER WARNINGS
Coastal hazard warning
The Bureau issued a Coastal hazard warning for people in parts of Wide Bay and Burnett and Southeast Coast forecast districts at 4.21am on Monday.
It warns of abnormally high tides and damaging surf along the southeast Queensland coast.
“Tropical Cyclone Alfred is moving southwest through the Coral Sea generating large and powerful east to north-easterly waves,” the warning says.
“These waves will combine with spring tides to produce abnormally high tides and severe beach erosion for southern Queensland. High tide peaks will start to recede slightly from today but large waves are expected to persist for several days as Alfred remains in the southern Coral Sea.
“Water levels on Monday morning high tide may exceed the highest tide of the year by less than half a metre and ease further into Tuesday but may start to increase again during the week depending on the movement of Tropical Cyclone Alfred. This could lead to minor flooding of the foreshore and coastal erosion.
“Damaging surf conditions leading to significant beach erosion are likely between Sandy Cape and Coolangatta, and may also continue throughout most of next week depending on the movement of Tropical Cyclone Alfred.
“A Hazardous Surf Warning is also current for Capricornia, K’gari, Sunshine and Gold Coast waters.
“Locations which may be affected include Gold Coast, Maroochydore, Coolangatta, Moreton Island, North Stradbroke Island, Noosa Heads, Rainbow Beach, and K’gari.”
Hazardous surf warning
The Bureau issued a hazardous surf warning at 4.21am on Monday for K’gari Coast, Sunshine Coast Waters and Gold Coast waters, with surf and swell conditions expected to be hazardous for coastal activities such as rock fishing, boating, and swimming.
People are advised to stay out of the water and avoid walking near surf-exposed areas.
Rock fishers are advised to avoid rock platforms that are exposed to the ocean.
Boaters are advised to reconsider their plans if they involve crossing shallow water and ocean bars, and those already on the water should carry the appropriate safety equipment and wear a lifejacket.
Flood watch
An initial flood watch has been issued for South East Queensland, with the prospect of widespread minor to major flooding with significant localised flooding possible later this week.
The warning, issued on Sunday afternoon, said heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Cyclone Alfred is likely from late on Wednesday, continuing on Thursday, Friday and into the weekend.
“High sea levels and large waves are likely at coastal locations, and may exacerbate flooding and cause flooding impacts,” the warning said.
“Minor to major flooding may develop across the flood watch area from late Wednesday into Thursday.
“The location of the most severe flooding will depend on the location of the heaviest rainfall, and the areas at risk will continue to be revised during the coming days.
“Rapid river levels rises and flash flooding is expected across many creeks, associated with the heaviest rainfall with widespread, including major, riverine flooding possible.”
Catchments likely to be affected include:
Mary River
Noosa River
Sunshine Coast Rivers and Creeks
Pine and Caboolture Rivers
Upper Brisbane River
Lower Brisbane River
Logan and Albert Rivers
Gold Coast Rivers and Creeks
Marine wind warning
Wind warnings for March 3
Gale Warning for the following areas:
Capricornia Coast, K’gari Coast, Sunshine Coast Waters and Gold Coast Waters
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Hervey Bay and Moreton Bay
Wind Warnings for Tuesday 4 March
Strong Wind Warning for the following areas:
Capricornia Coast, Hervey Bay, K’gari Coast, Sunshine Coast Waters, Moreton Bay and Gold Coast Waters
Originally published as ‘Leave or stay’: Concern for islands, bay communities as Alfred hones in
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