Qld election analysis: Steven Miles’s inner city raid squeezes Greens out of Brisbane

The elevation of the more progressive Steven Miles to Labor leader has eroded the Greens’ base in Brisbane and forced it to work harder to find support, writes Hayden Johnson.

Labor believes the elevation of Steven Miles to leader has worked and will likely save the fates of Brisbane MPs Grace Grace and Jonty Bush.

Steven Miles has probably saved Labor from a devastating defeat in the inner city that would have put at risk its ability to win majority government again.

Spurred by a three-seat win in Brisbane during the 2022 federal election, the Greens in February 2023 warned it would target seven city-centric electorates this state election.

However, the elevation of the more progressive Mr Miles has eroded the Greens’ base and forced it to work harder to find support.

Their list of seven has been quietly whittled down to four: McConnel, Cooper, Greenslopes and Miller.

Premier Steven Miles following the Courier-Mail’s leader debate on Tuesday night. Picture: Adam Head

Effective street-to-street campaign captures anyone who opens the front door, but the informed left-leaning young voters that would usually fall to the Greens are being courted by Labor and the left-leaning Premier Miles.

Labor hardheads say it has worked and insist the Greens will crash on election night with Grace Grace’s McConnel and Jonty Bush’s Cooper successfully sandbagged.

It’s hard to overstate the significance of this to the future of Queensland Labor.

Losing McConnel, Cooper and Greenslopes to the Greens – Miller isn’t in doubt – would have devastated Labor’s ability to rebuild after Saturday’s likely loss.

With the LNP expected to hold regional Queensland, Labor’s defeat in the inner city would prompt a retreat to its shrinking heartland in the outer suburbs.

The path back to power in 2028 would then only come by retaking Brisbane through an ideological shift to the left – alienating regional Queensland.

A potential defeat to Grace Grace in McConnel would be devastating to Labor. Picture: John Gass

YouGov polling predicting a primary vote of 22 per cent in the inner metropolitan area is too low for the Greens to win any extra seats.

In fact, with LNP preferences going to Labor this time, they might struggle to hold South Brisbane.

This election will be fought between the major parties on crime, cost of living and now women’s rights – issues not easy for the Greens to fight on.

On cost of living, the Greens plan to shake the money tree to fund its state-owned bank and allow the party to end coal and gas.

Labor dominates on cost of living and women’s rights while the LNP is riding high on crime.

The Greens have been squeezed out of the race.

Originally published as Qld election analysis: Steven Miles’s inner city raid squeezes Greens out of Brisbane