How Labor factions would stand after an election wipeout

Union boss Gary Bullock’s grip on Labor would survive the party’s predicted wipeout and set up a tight leadership tussle.

Union powerbroker Gary Bullock at the Labor campaign launch. Picture: Adam Head

Union boss Gary Bullock’s grip on the Labor Party would survive the party’s predicted wipe-out and set the scene for a tight fight between Cameron Dick and Shannon Fentiman to lead defeated MPs.

YouGov polling on Saturday suggests an 7.7 per cent uniform swing against the government, which would result in 19 seats lost – including five held by ministers.

That uniform swing and surge towards the Greens in the inner city would result in the loss of nine Left, nine Right and three Old Guard MPs.

Of the nine Left MPs to lose their seats, seven are members of Mr Bullock’s powerful United Workers’ Union.

Mr Bullock was a key figure in the demise of former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk when he, along with Labor president John Battams, told Ms Palaszczuk she was no longer the best person to lead the government.

Despite Labor facing a heavy loss at Saturday’s poll, Mr Bullock would remain head of a Left faction reduced to 15 MPs.

Mr Bullock’s UWU could retain as many as 11 UWU-aligned MPs in the Left.

However Labor and LNP operatives believe the result will not be uniform across Queensland, with Labor still in the fight to hold Cairns and Pumicestone.

Several Labor MPs and party operatives approached by The Courier-Mail were reluctant to speculate on life on the opposition benches, but concede Mr Dick and Ms Fentiman would almost certainly be the two candidates for opposition leader.

Union boss Gary Bullock with Premier Steven Miles

Under party rules, a contested leadership contest would go to party members and unions for a vote – possibly setting up a prolonged showdown between Mr Dick and Ms Fentiman.

Support from elected representatives, one tranche of the vote, would likely again be decided by the pint-sized Old Guard faction – despite its own numbers at risk.

Retiring Old Guard Speaker Curtis Pitt has been replaced in his electorate of Mulgrave by Right candidate Richie Bates.

The faction could be left with as few as five members in a uniform 7.7 per cent swing, which would leave Mr Miles’s dominant Left faction with 15 MPs ahead of Mr Dick’s 10 Right colleagues.

The Old Guard was instrumental in installing Mr Miles as premier in December.

Its leader, State Development Minister Grace Grace, quickly whipped votes and kept the faction unified, however she now faces a tough fight to hold her electorate of McConnel.

Should Ms Grace lose her inner-city seat the next most experienced factional member, Education and Youth Justice Minister Di Farmer, would likely take control.

Originally published as How Labor factions would stand after an election wipeout