South East Queensland winter temperatures expected to soar thanks to El Nino event

“Highly unusual” conditions off the Queensland coast are set to deliver soaring winter temperatures to the southeast this month.

The Bureau of Meteorology has issued a grim forecast for the months ahead, declaring South East Queensland is four times more likely to experience unusually hot August weather, with chances of heatwaves arriving within weeks.

Senior climatologist Hugh McDowell said there was an 80 per cent chance South East Queensland would experience above median maximum temperatures over the next three months, with August temperatures four times more likely to remain unusually warm.

“It’s still winter so it doesn’t mean it’ll be absolutely scorching but the chance of heatwaves will be increasing as we go into spring,” he said.

“Warming surface temperatures in the Coral Sea are keeping up the mean temperature and adding more moisture into the atmosphere as well.”

While the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral, the Bureau expects to declare an El Nino event by the end of the month.

An El Nino event will bring warm, dry conditions to Australia, particularly to inland areas, with minimal to no rainfall.

Queensland is facing a winter heatwave over the next few weeks. Picture: BOM

Mr McDowell said it was highly unusual to see above average sea surface temperatures alongside a developing El Nino weather pattern, but it could be what is contributing to the delay in El Nino’s arrival to Australia.

“We often see cooler water across the northern pacific and warmer across the eastern pacific and that’s what drives the El Nino change,” he said.

“Strangely, we’re still keeping above average sea surface temperatures and this may be having an impact on why El Nino isn’t developing and why we haven’t declared it.

“It’s ongoing research (at the Bureau) because it’s unusual.

“Summer will be hot and sticky at times, that’s probably a guarantee, but exactly how those sea surface temperatures play into it is hard to say.”

Speaking with media on Tuesday, meteorologist Dr Karl Braganza said the Bureau was witnessing never before seen weather conditions with sea surfaces consistently breaking heat records, with July shaping up to be the “hottest month recorded globally”.

“Sea surface temperatures, the global oceans have been warm now since May and they’ve been setting records for each of those months,” Dr Braganza said.

“Historically, we haven’t seen a situation like this before where we’re going into an El Nino event with record global ocean temperatures.

“Following a typical El Nino cycle, we would expect those temperatures to keep warming now into the middle of next year.”

Dr Braganza said the Bureau had noticed an alarming reduction in growth of Antarctic sea ice this year, the lowest growth seen in the Bureau’s 50 year history.

“It’s (sea ice) growing at a much slower rate, so we’re missing a chunk of ice about the size of Western Australia,” he said.

“It’s quite a noticeable impact on the southern hemisphere’s climate system.”

Light showers and tops of 23C are forecast for Brisbane, the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast this week, bringing slight reprieve to the unusually hot temperatures seen earlier this week.

Originally published as South East Queensland winter temperatures expected to soar thanks to El Nino event