Massive swing against Labor in Ipswich by-election delivers disaster for Steven Miles
Labor’s heartland of Ipswich West has fallen to the LNP amid a savage swing against the third-term government - and not even Premier Steven Miles could stay positive.
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Voters have delivered a savage blow to Premier Steven Miles’s Labor government with a brutal double-digit swing that has resulted in it losing the Ipswich West by-election.
A brutal 15 per cent swing against Labor delivered a Saturday by-election nightmare that ended with its candidate Wendy Bourne trailing the LNP’s Darren Zanow on a 47.07-52.93 two-party vote.
On Saturday night the LNP’s primary vote was 39.3 per cent compared to Labor’s 35.2 per cent – enough for government insiders to privately concede it was “all over”.
Labor will retain Inala despite suffering a significant 30.9 per cent swing in its once safest seat of Inala – vacated by Annastacia Palaszczuk in December.
Mr Miles said the vote in Ipswich West was “very bad” but said turning around the government’s fortunes would take time.
“I was expecting a bad result and they’re even worse than that,” he said.
“They are in the range that you do sometimes see in by-elections against governments... these by-elections, they’re hard for governments, easy for oppositions, but this is a bad result.
“I’m not sugarcoating anything here.
“This is the voters of Inala and Ipswich sending us a message that they want to see us deliver more for them and that’s what I’m determined to do.”
Mr Miles acknowledged crime, cost of living and housing challenges were significant and said he could not fix them in three months since he became premier.
“We will keep working hard to see them turn a corner so that we can see improvements by October,” he said.
At press conference at Ipswich West on Sunday morning, Opposition Leader David Crisafulli said Queenslanders had sent a message to the government on the key issues of health, youth crime and the cost of living.
“The overwhelming message is that people don’t trust this government to fix those challenges, the message to us is to keep going and focus on the solution,” he said.
“The task at hand remains a massive one for us and we will not be losing sight of how big an issue facing in these crisis.”
Mr Crisafulli said he understood voters criticisms of the Queensland Electoral Commission after chaotic scenes at polling booths.
“I did notice the lines, a lot of people noticed that. I think that’s a fair reasonable thing to point out and people have done that,” he said.
“I believe in a democracy every person deserves the right to cast their vote as efficiently and as effectively as possible.”
LNP Candidate for Ipswich West Darren Zanow said the party was moving swiftly toward the state election in October.
”Ipswich West’s priorities are our priorities and we’ll move forward swiftly to October and take those right forward to Labor because it’s not good enough, he said.
”This is not a good situation and we need to move forward now.”
LNP Candidate for Inala Trang Yen said despite Labor likely retaining the seat she was humbled by the significant swing toward her.
”I’d like to say a big thank you, I’m very humbled, very grateful,” she said.
Deputy Leader of the Opposition Jarrod Bleijie gave a scathing attack on the government what he claimed were “dodgy” campaign signs and how to vote cards.
He accused the government of planting union members at polling booths handing out misleading Legalise Cannabis Party how to vote cards.
“The Labor Party are going to do and say anything to get elected,” he said.
”This is Steven Miles … diary extract from last year, where he met the very union official, Scott Bowman from the Australian Workers Union, that authorised the illegal power to vote card authorised by Cameron Dick’s own union.”
He said they would present their complaints to the QEC and went on to claim there were pictures of members wearing “green cannabis shirt getting into official AWU vehicles” at polling booths.
”It was deceitful, It was dodgy, but that is Steven Miles and that is the Labor Party way,” he said.
“What negotiation consultation meetings did the Australian Labor Party have in the Queensland branch? What Members of Parliament did with the Australian Workers Union?”
Looking forward, Mr Crisafulli said the LNP would be focusing on quality candidates and the issues to acquire “one of the biggest swings at a general election”.
”We put forward quality candidates, that’s a formula that we can replicate across the state,” he said.
”The battle lines for the election in October – health, housing, cost of living, youth crime – they will be the battle lines in 2028.”
He said he did not wish to focus on how the government would be reacting to their losses.
”My focus is the people, always has been,” he said.
”I assure Queenslanders that we will be setting targets every minister will be held accountable for and on every one of those four metrics, things are going to get better.”
Despite the large swings, senior government ministers are maintaining their faith in Mr Miles and his ability to lead the party to the October state election.
The premier did not visit Labor’s Ipswich West event, but earlier thanked members for how hard they worked on the campaign.
“I was proud of our volunteers who worked so hard and talked to so many people, proud of what we did today on the booths and proud that we were talking about issues in the campaign that we know people care about the end of the day,” he told Labor’s Inala by-election party.
“We’ll keep listening to Queenslanders and keep delivering on those things.
“No matter what the results are tonight, particularly Ipswich West was always going to be a very hard seat for us.”
The loss of Ipswich West is a significant blow to Mr Miles, who took the top job from Ms Palaszczuk in December in an effort to reset the third-term government.
On Saturday night, Mr Crisafulli did not claim victory in the seat, but said the voters had heard his message to turn out against the third-term Labor government.
“We have created history because Queenslanders have heeded the call in two seats to send the government a message,” he said.
“The results in these seats give comfort to people who are looking for a better way, who are looking to be listened to, who are looking for an end to the youth crime crisis, the housing crisis, the cost of living crisis and the health crisis.
“Tonight, residents in two Labor Party heartlands said enough is enough.
“Tonight, we are humbled by how many Queenslanders for the first time voted for our side of politics.”
Mr Miles had declared it a “real possibility” Labor would lose Ipswich West, but a 15 per cent swing against his government was beyond insiders’ expectations.
Deputy Premier Cameron Dick on Saturday night told the Labor faithful the result in the Ipswich West by-election remained close – but said the government would respond to the likely defeat by listening to Queenslanders.
“We’ve heard what they’ve told us tonight,” he said.
“We’ve got a great premier in Steven Miles.”
Legalise Cannabis has been a wildcard in the seat with a 14.8 per cent primary vote.
It outpolled Pauline Hanson’s One Nation’s 10.7 per cent, a 4 per cent fall.
Ipswich West was held by the government on a 14.3 per cent margin and was considered very safe for Labor.
As polls closed one senior Labor source tipped a swing against the government, but did not tip a loss.
“I think we’ll hold it,” they said.
Mr Miles and Mr Crisafulli spent the day at polling booths in Ipswich West and Inala – where voters were electing a replacement to Ms Palaszczuk.
In Inala – at the Durack Bowls Club where Labor partied – the atmosphere was busy and bustling as attendees arrived as early as 6pm.
Mr Miles arrived at 6.45pm, mingled with guests and spoke with his supporters.
Inala Labor candidate Margie Nightingale arrived just after 7.30pm to a round of applause and cheers from the group.
The premier poured her a glass of water before the pair shared their speeches.
Ms Nightingale has retained the seat – previously Labor’s safest on a 28.2 per cent margin – over the LNP’s Trang Yen.
When counting ended at 10.30pm she held a 36.6 per cent primary vote over Ms Yen’s 29 per cent.
Ms Nightingale said she would be “crazy” not to lean on the advice of former member Ms Palaszczuk who was “someone who’s been such an inspiration to so many people”.
She said her first priority would be making herself available to the public.
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