‘It’s time’: Labor MPs lose hope Miles is the saviour

In the quest to claw Labor back into electoral contention, Steven Miles insists he’s ‘not even at base camp yet’ - but some MPs question whether he’ll get there.

Labor insiders are losing hope Premier Steven Miles can win October’s state election and fear the first brutal blow could be delivered today if the government is defeated in the Ipswich West by-election.

Government MPs are framing the by-elections in Ipswich West and Inala as the first big test for Mr Miles and say it will indicate whether pushing Annastacia Palaszczuk out in December has paid dividends.

Labor members are growing increasingly convinced the “time for change factor” will be too strong for Mr Miles to overcome and say Saturday’s by-elections will indicate the fate awaiting the government in the October general election.

Their fears were validated on Friday when the latest Newspoll, published by The Australian, revealed a surge in support for the LNP to lead Labor on a 54-46 two-party vote.

It would mean the loss of 18 Labor seats, four more than the LNP needs to win a majority in the 93-seat parliament.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles. Picture: Richard Walker

Some Labor MPs are bracing for the seat of Ipswich West to fall to the LNP in Saturday’s

by-election, with the poll considered the first clear indicator of Queenslanders’ views about Mr Miles.

The premier and Opposition Leader David Crisafulli hit the campaign trail on Friday and will attend booths across both Ipswich West and Inala on election day.

Labor backbenchers were on Friday trading messages of concern about whether the premier had the ability to pull the government back from the brink of defeat.

A defiant Mr Miles – who on his first day in the job said winning the election would be like conquering a challenge taller than Mt Everest – on Friday insisted he was “not even at base camp yet”.

“I’m going to keep fighting, keep campaigning, keep working, keep governing, keep listening and keep delivering every single day,” he said.

One Labor MP scoffed when asked if the poll had sent shockwaves throughout the government.

“Of course it’s worrying,” they said.

Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli handing out how to vote cards at pre-polls in Ipswich West ahead of Saturday's by-election. Photo: Supplied.

“The big takeaway is the time for change factor … I think it’s really strong.”

The MP argued there was little Mr Miles or the third-term Labor government could do to turn the tide, but insisted things would be worse if the leadership change from Annastacia Palaszczuk had not been made in December.

“It’s given us a fighting chance and he hasn’t been there long,” they said.

Mr Miles said the polling proved what he’d been saying “for some time”, that winning a fourth term would be difficult.

“I don’t think there’s any surprises here,” he said.

“Winning this election is very, very challenging.

“I think that the best way we can campaign is by governing well and that’s what I’ve been trying to do.”

The premier, who was elected unopposed in a party room ballot on December 15 after Shannon Fentiman withdrew her challenge, said his government MPs weren’t anxious about the latest polling.

“Most of our MPs have been in parliament now for some time, they know that polls come and go,” he said.

Friday’s Newspoll revealed an eight-point surge to the LNP compared to the 2020 election when Ms Palaszczuk defeated Deb Frecklington.

The Newspoll survey of 1037 voters between March 7 and 13 revealed the LNP’s primary vote has risen by six points since the 2020 election to 42 per cent.

Labor’s support has dived 10 per cent to 30 per cent.

Labor strategists had hoped the exit of Ms Palaszczuk as premier in December would deliver a bounce to the third-term Labor government, with Mr Miles installed with a pledge to refresh the party.

Premier Steven Miles, Picture: Liam Kidston

Three months into the role, however, Mr Miles’s job approval rating sits at 38 per cent, the lowest result for a Labor premier since Anna Bligh’s 36 per cent result ahead of the 2012 election.

Mr Crisafulli’s satisfaction rating is at 47 per cent.

The LNP leader leads Mr Miles as better premier 43-37, with 20 per cent of voters undecided.

Mr Crisafulli says he remains “firmly the underdog” despite explosive polling numbers which show the LNP stretched ahead of Labor.

Mr Crisafulli said they were “not the numbers that drive me” just seven months out from the October state election.

“We remain firmly the underdog, and history shows that, and we will continue to humbly work,” he said.

“The state government, at this point, just expects Queenslanders to keep voting for them – and we’re going to earn it.”

Despite the dire polling, another Labor MP insisted Mr Miles had the qualities to turn it around.

“Steven’s doing a great job, a fantastic job as premier,” they said.

“A week’s a long time in politics.”

Mr Miles and Mr Crisafulli visited Ipswich West on Friday in the final pre-polling day before election day.

Pauline Hanson’s One Nation is eyeing a strong result in Ipswich West, which could propel the LNP to a major psychological victory.

“One Nation’s message to voters in Ipswich West is not to reward Labor’s incompetence on escalating crime, housing and the cost of living, and kick them out,” Senator Hanson said.

Originally published as ‘It’s time’: Labor MPs lose hope Miles is the saviour