Gabba’s $1bn cost figure sensationally ‘not based on any analysis’

The initial $1bn price tag for the Gabba redevelopment was based on absolutely nothing, Director-General of Premier and Cabinet Mike Kaiser has revealed.

• Editor’s view: Please explain

The original $1bn price tag to demolish and rebuild Brisbane’s Gabba stadium was not based on any government analysis Queensland’s top bureaucrat has revealed.

Department of Premier and Cabinet director-general Mike Kaiser confirmed the $1bn figure for the Gabba redevelopment was effectively conjured up, marking the first time the government has made the concession since the price tag appeared in 2021.

The admission builds on a finding by Queensland’s Auditor-General in March last year that the only source for the original estimate came from a “press release” by then-premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

“There was original discussion of a $1bn cost for the Gabba which was not based on any analysis at all,” Mr Kaiser said. “It wasn’t based on a project validation report (PVR) or business case.

“The $1bn figure … was never subjected to that kind of rigorous analysis.”

Ms Palaszczuk’s plan was to have the Gabba become the main stadium for the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, hosting the athletics events and opening and closing ceremonies, and used this as part of Brisbane’s bid for the games.

Government sources at the time had dismissed the $1bn estimate as “laughable” but it wasn’t until the business case was finalised in 2023 when it was revealed the Gabba demolition and rebuild would cost $2.7bn.

The 170 per cent increase on the original estimate prompted accusations by the Opposition that the government had hidden a budget blowout.

The government at the time, including Ms Palaszczuk and her then-deputy Steven Miles, defended the cost increase as a consequence of skyrocketing construction costs.

Director-General of Premier and Cabinet Mike Kaiser. Picture: Liam Kidston

Deputy Opposition Leader Jarrod Bleijie said it had become clear the government had drawn up the Gabba announcement “with crayons on the back of an envelope”.

“They literally marched out to announce they would spend $1bn with ‘no idea’ and no analysis of how much the project would cost, then they hoovered up the Olympics and Paralympics committee into the government department to hide the truth,” he said.

“It’s an extraordinary admission from a government so desperate they will clearly say and do anything to cling to power, including announcing a billion-dollar project by plucking a number from thin-air.”

Government ministers are set to face the glare of budget estimates for the last time before the October state election over the next two weeks, with the Opposition vowing to press on the four key issues of crime, housing, health and cost-of-living.

The Miles’ government, under the glare of budget estimates, on Tuesday revealed a further $6.2m spend on a key integrity measure now two years in the making.

Taxpayers will fork out the cash to investigate how to push forward with a complaints clearing house as recommended by the Coaldrake review in 2022, but there is still no timeline on when the mechanism will be up and running.

The decision to spend millions setting up the starting blocks of the clearing house also comes in the aftermath of the state government hiring retired District Court judge Michael Forde to help them assess their options.

The state government has been repeatedly criticised over its implementation of a one-stop complaints clearing house for public servants in the aftermath of the 2022 Coaldrake review. Mr Miles confirmed the state government had received the Forde review and had picked one of the three options.

This option will involve extending “the responsibilities of one of Queensland’s integrity bodies, providing additional technology and resources”.

Queensland Premier Steven Miles faces questions from the Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli during an Estimates Committee hearing at Parliament House. Picture: Dan Peled

But the project was set to be “complex” and would thus be done in a “staged” fashion.

This first phase will involve $6.2m and 15 full-time staff over the 2024/25 period.

Public Sector Commissioner David Mackie confirmed this phase of work would “explore the option in greater detail”, shed light on how much the clearing house would cost and what computer program the government needs to buy.

“(This will) explore that option in greater detail to really come up with details around cost but also what product from an IT perspective can do the functionality that it requires,” he said.

“We’re already on that first bit around the web form and web page which allows complaints to actually go through one door and be directed.

“So this is then stage two … it’s really about building an IT system and locating that functionality in an existing body.”

Mr Miles said his government was “serious” about implementing the clearing house.

“We have carefully considered Mr Forde’s report and will now begin foundational work to progress the next stage of a Queensland Complaints Clearing house model,” he said.

“We know that this type of significant change will have a cross government and community impact, so it is important that we get this right.”

Professor Peter Coaldrake called for the clearing house in mid-2022 as part of his Let the Sunshine In report into the culture of the public service.

Former premier Palaszczuk initially scrapped plans for a clearing house after claiming it was not feasible. She then backflipped and called on Mr Forde in late November 2023 to look into options.

Originally published as Gabba’s $1bn cost figure sensationally ‘not based on any analysis’