Explained: New data modelling and why the states are freaking out

As the federal government gets set to reveal new Covid modelling at national cabinet on Friday, we take a look at the argy-bargy over the nation’s ‘road map’ out of the pandemic.

As the federal government gets set to reveal new Covid modelling at national cabinet on Friday, we take a look at the argy-bargy over the nation’s ‘road map’ out of the pandemic.

● What the states and federal government is fighting about:

National cabinet agreed on a road map out of Covid-19. In that road map, restrictions and lockdowns would ease when 80 per cent of people are fully vaccinated, but some state leaders are now arguing they won’t do that.

Australia is currently in Phase A of the Covid road mpa - “vaccine, prepare, pilot”. Picture: Tara Croser

● Australia’s road map out of Covid-19, a refresher:

Four phases. We are now in Phase A, or “vaccinate, prepare, pilot”, where the goal is to suppress Covid-19 and reduce transmission while ramping up the vaccine rollout.

Phase B hits when 70 per cent of people aged 16 and older are fully vaccinated. At this point, there will still be Covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns, but at “lower levels” then there are now.

Phase C hits when 80 per cent of people aged 16 and older are fully vaccinated. Only highly targeted lockdowns, such as closing off a specific suburb, will be used and only as a last resort. Measures such as mask-wearing, social distancing, and QR code check-ins will remain.

Phase D is “post-vaccination”, when international borders will completely reopen and Covid-19 vaccine booster shot programs start. This is still far off.

● What the Doherty Institute modelling says about Phase C:

At 80 per cent vaccine coverage, assuming measures such as Covid-19 testing, tracing, and isolating cases are working well, there would be seven deaths from the virus over a six-month period in an outbreak and 1160 infections. But if the containment measures were struggling, even at 80 per cent vaccine coverage, about 996 people would die and 230,164 Covid-19 cases would be recorded in an outbreak over six months. Remember, national cabinet were aware of this when they agreed to the road map.

● Why the state leaders are freaking out:

The Doherty Institute’s numbers were based on an outbreak kicking off at 30 cases in the community, not hundreds as is currently being experienced in NSW.

Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk. Picture: Tertius Pickard

State leaders say they need updated modelling to understand the impacts of opening up at 80 per cent if there are hundreds of cases and whether our health measures can keep up. Federal boffins says this is a misunderstanding of math, and really the modelling will not change very much.

● What’s happening now:

National cabinet has ordered updated modelling which they will receive on Friday. Basically the Doherty Institute boffins will go back and figure out what Phase C would look like if we go in at a higher rate of transmission, depending on whether the test, trace, isolate measures hold up.

Originally published as Explained: New data modelling and why the states are freaking out