CHO reveals wave end date and predicts pandemic petering out

Queensland chief health officer Dr John Gerrard says the Omicron wave that has delivered tens of thousands of new Covid-19 cases could end in weeks, but said there were questions about the virus over winter.

Queensland’s chief health officer has weighed in on whether he think the pandemic will end this year after one of the nation’s top doctors declared ‘in 2022, the Covid-19 pandemic will end’.

Asked whether he believed the pandemic would end this year as Covid became endemic, Queensland’s Chief Health Officer Dr John Gerrard said the impacts should lessen as time goes on.

“What we strongly believe is this wave will last a period of weeks, the question is whether there will be another wave this winter and that will be purely speculative,” he said.

“But we know we have to have this wave and we know it will generate immunity in the community and the general pattern that happens with pandemics over history is that you get a big wave and it gets smaller.”

Dr Gerrard was speaking at today’s press conference where it was revealed the state recorded 6781 new Covid cases, while free rapid antigen tests will be made available from tomorrow.

“You may get smaller waves in the future and as time goes by the virus becomes endemic,” he said.

Australia’s former deputy chief medical officer Dr Nick Coatsworth was more definite in his comments on the matter this week.

“The pandemic will come to an end in 2022 because the virus will become endemic, and that means that Covid will circulate in the community,” he said.

“It’s circulating already in the eastern states so, to an extent, we’re already there.

Queensland Chief Health Officer Dr John Gerrard pictured addressing the media at One William Street regarding the latest on the Covid-19 outbreak. Picture: Josh Woning

Dr Gerrard’s comments also echo those made by Professor Robert Booy, from the Immunisation Coalition, who said that pandemic viruses mutate and evolve and naturally become endemic, low-level and milder.

“Viruses survive by transmissibility. Becoming more able to spread they sometimes lose their virulence and turn less nasty,” he said.

“We already have coronaviruses that now only cause mild symptoms that caused pandemics back in 1890 and 1400.”

A pandemic is an epidemic that spreads across many countries and many continents. Examples are the Spanish flu, Zika virus and SARS-CoV-1.

A virus is more likely will become endemic if it adapts to a local environment and have a continuous supply of susceptible hosts.

On the border reopening, Dr Gerrard said everywhere would have to go through the pain of reopening at some time.

Dr Gerrard said he still wanted people in quarantine to get day six tests, and RAT tests would start becoming available at testing centres.

“We still want people who are the household contacts of known Covid patients to have a day six test to clear them, either RAT or PCR test to clear them to go to work,” he said.

Originally published as CHO reveals wave end date and predicts pandemic petering out