ATAR 2022: Number one Yr 12 school to lose top spot, data model predicts

Data modelling has revealed the Queensland schools most likely to achieve high academic performance in the QCE and emerge as the state’s smartest, and which may lose their grip on the top spots. See the full list.

A Brisbane private girls school which charges parents a third of the fees of other elite rivals has been predicted to claim the crown of Queensland’s smartest school.

An official NSW Department of Education analysis of Year 12 results found that the best predictor of success was how well a student performed in writing in their Year 9 results.

Using the same model, a Courier-Mail analysis of Queensland’s Year 9 writing results from the 2019 NAPLAN has tipped Mt St Michael’s College Ashgrove to dominate the 2022 ATAR results.

Mt St Michael’s students scored 617 in Year 9 writing in the 2019 NAPLAN, ahead of St Aidan’s Anglican Girls School and All Hallows School.

Parents fork about $10,000 in school fees for Mt St Michael’s, figures dwarfed by some of leading schools in the GPS system which charge nearly three times as much.

According to NSW Department of Education data modelling, high performance in Year 9 writing component of NAPLAN is the best indication for secondary school success.

A NSW Department of Education statistics report which analysed the HSC data, the equivalent of the Queensland Certificate of Education, found the results of Year 9 writing was the best way to say how a student would do.

“Writing ability in the years prior to the HSC is a good predictor of HSC success,” the report read.

“Internal analysis undertaken by the department shows the significance of writing ability at school to overall educational outcomes – namely that the NAPLAN writing score is a better predictor of HSC performance than the other NAPLAN competencies.”

Leading education expert Pasi Sahlberg said success in Year 9 writing did not automatically transfer to higher grades and traditionally, the best indication for Year 12 and tertiary success was how a student applied themselves.

The Southern Cross University Professor of Education said overall, Year 9 writing levels were declining as young people were learning to write off social media and mobile phone apps.

Data modelling has predicted which Queensland schools are most likely to have success in ATARS and QCE.

“It’s not so much about writing alone. Experts basically say school performance overall, in plain language, how kids are going in school is a strong predictor,” Prof Sahlberg said.

“It is worrying that writing is declining. If you can’t write properly in Year 9, it does leave a lot of work to be done (for Year 12).”

Released ATAR results last year showed nearly 80 per cent of Brisbane Girls Grammar School students received an ATAR of 90-plus.

Brisbane Grammar School had 69.5 per cent, St Aidan’s 70 per cent while Matthew Flinders Anglican College had 59.48 per cent.

A Queensland Department of Education spokesman said a student’s performance against Year 12 subject assessments was the primary factor of ATARS and QCE results.

The spokesman said NAPLAN was a point-in-time check for students in years 3, 5, 7 and 9, and one of several tools used to measure progress.

“For large groups of students, there is a notable correlation between NAPLAN results and Year 12 outcomes. For any individual student though, NAPLAN results and Year 12 can be very different,” he said.

“Year 9 results alone do not determine academic destiny.”

Originally published as ATAR 2022: Number one Yr 12 school to lose top spot, data model predicts