Analysis: Labor’s epic fail in Ipswich West

Labor has been humiliated in its heartland, paving the way for a painful road to the state election, writes state political editor Hayden Johnson.

Labor has been smashed and humiliated in its heartland in a by-election nightmare that – if replicated across the state – would equate to an almost Bligh-level defeat. 

Queenslanders are advancing on every one of Labor’s now 51 MPs with baseball bats and the government has few quick solutions to stop them.

Ipswich West is almost certain to fall and Labor insiders were on Saturday night likening it to the brutal message sent to Campbell Newman in 2015, labelling it the first nail in the government’s coffin.

By-elections often hurt the government and while Premier Steven Miles laid the groundwork in an attempt to soften the blow of losing the seat – he would be spooked by such a devastating swing in Labor’s backyard.

Mr Miles did not appear at the subdued Ipswich West party and instead sent his deputy Cameron Dick to face the music.

Ironically, it’s Mr Dick who holds one of the last levers the government can pull in an effort to re-engage voters when he hands down June’s budget.

It will be strongly geared towards providing cost of living relief and expect to see a renewed effort to put more cops on the beat to bring down crime.

These are baked-in issues, however, that the premier can’t solve in the seven months before the next, perhaps final, test. 

Things looked tough in Ipswich West early as the first booth, the small and regional Marburg, indicated a savage 20 per cent swing against the third-term Labor government.

Things of course stabilised to a 15.2 per cent loss to its primary vote.   

Labor would lose some 41 seats if that swing occurred across the state at the October general election.

In Inala, Labor’s once safest seat, the government was whacked with a 30 per cent loss of its primary vote, but some of that is due to Annastacia Palaszczuk’s previous high personal vote. 

For Mr Miles, almost every seat across the state is at risk.

In an indication of the battle on all fronts, the premier last week spent the dying days of the Ipswich West by-election campaign 520km away in Rockhampton.

There Labor holds two seats, Rockhampton and Keppel, on an 8.6 per cent and 5.6 per cent margin.

These by-elections have allowed us to see deep into the eyes of Queenslanders and offer a crystal ball insight into the general election results.

What it’s revealed has shaken the state.

Originally published as Analysis: Labor’s epic fail in Ipswich West