James Morrow: There’s more than fate behind Dutton’s run of bad fortune

The first rule of politics is be normal. The second is be lucky. Peter Dutton has done a fair job of managing the first, but experienced a shocker with the second, writes James Morrow.

The first rule of politics is “be normal.”

The second is “be lucky.”

Opposition leader Peter Dutton can be said to have done a pretty fair job of managing the first rule, despite the relentless personal attacks from the kinder and gentler side of the aisle.

But it is around that second rule – be lucky – that Dutton has had a shocker.

From the moment Cyclone Alfred turned towards land, giving Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a chance to put off the election while looking very prime ministerial taking briefings in situation rooms, events seemed to conspire against Dutton.

Not long after the storm hit US president Donald Trump slapped tariffs on countries around the globe, creating headaches for everyone on the centre right while giving the left and the media the easy, deadly insult: “Trumpian.”

And now with just days left to run Pope Francis died, stealing yet another day from Dutton’s increasingly urgent efforts to find a way through before May 3.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has had luck on his side but the Liberals’ inability to adapt to changing circumstances has made it look flat-footed and out of ideas. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Bad luck all the way down, except for the little secret bit of the “be lucky” rule: It is possible to make your own luck.

Now, it is still too early to call the contest for Labor – there’s a huge soft vote out there that may decide to hold Albanese responsible for their catastrophic drop in living standards.

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs have created headaches for the Liberal Party in Australia but so far they’ve failed to deal with them. Picture: SAUL LOEB / AFP

But it is all too clear that by their own action or inaction, the Liberals have made the impact of all three of these “bad luck” events far worse than they needed to be.

At the heart of this is the great contradiction of the Dutton campaign.

On the one hand he has talked up all the great disasters that have befallen Australia under Labor (just look at your power bill or what a load of groceries cost in 2022).

Yet on the other he has so far failed to provide any solutions bold enough to turn our badly listing ship around.

With the exception of their nuclear policy, the Coalition failed to do the work of developing a serious, heavy hitting suite of policies – a fact which many Liberals inside the tent privately acknowledge.

Instead, the Coalition says the solution to Australia’s woes including an eight per cent drop in living standards are a temporary fuel excise tax cut (great, we’ll take it), a one-off tax offset and, at the very last minute, a promise to maybe one day index tax rates to fix bracket creep … when the Budget allows.

Liberal leader Peter Dutton has failed to provide heavy-hitting solutions to fix the Australian economy. Picture Thomas Lisson / NewsWire

This is like hearing an alcoholic say they know they need to quit drinking but they’d like to get through the Christmas party season first.

Half the battle may be admitting they’ve got a problem, but the problem still remains.

Meanwhile, because everything has been left so late, something like the Holy Father dying means that there is barely any time let alone media oxygen around to launch the Coalition’s defence policy before Anzac Day: a perfect example of how bad luck compounds.

And through all this Labor has been able to bait the Coalition into me too spending promises while simultaneously belting them over the head with the big lie that nuclear power will cost $600bn and require cuts to everything from schools to health to childcare.

This confusion is part of the reason why despite everything Labor now has the edge (31-28) in the latest Newspoll on the question of who would be better at managing the cost of living.

In the spirit of calling an arsonist to put out a fire, the same poll found that by 33 to 26 per cent, Australians thought Labor would be better at “lowering taxes for Australians.”

Labor has been able to bait the Coalition into “me too” spending promises which have only served to undermine Peter Dutton’s credibility with voters. Picture: Sky News

If Labor is successful in a couple of weeks we will find out if the voters’ hopes on these scores were in fact justified.

But the numbers reflect an even greater danger not just for the Coalition but for Australia.

Whether driven by fear of repeating the debacle of John Hewson’s Fightback! or being attacked like Joe Hockey after he handed down perhaps Australia’s last reform-minded budget in 2014, the Coalition has not managed to use its core mainstream values to effectively launch policies that meet the moment.

In the meantime a cocktail of Labor big spending socialism, Greens sentimentality and anti-semitism, and the boutique privilege politics of the teals have occupied the field.

Of course none of this works in practice, it is not possible to subsidise your way to prosperity and most industrialised countries that have gone down the net zero path are now looking to turn around as fast as they can.

Because in the real world as in politics your choices determine your luck.

Let’s hope Australia’s fate isn’t as unfortunate as Peter Dutton’s has been of late.

Originally published as James Morrow: There’s more than fate behind Dutton’s run of bad fortune