The Coalition knows there’s an aged care crisis coming – but that’s a Labor problem | James Campbell

If you’re wondering if the Coalition thinks it can sneak into office at the election, look no further than its aged care deal, writes James Campbell.

If you’re wondering whether Peter Dutton’s crew are starting to think they might really be a chance to sneak into office at the next federal election, look no further than the fact they are happy to do a deal with the government on aged care funding.

Aged care has long been a difficult area for the Coalition for the simple reason that their rock solid electoral base is old people who, human existence being what it is, are much more likely to need it now or in the not too distant future than Labor or Greens voters.

There’s also the tricky electoral fact that wealthier old people are even more likely to be conservative voters.

Which was no doubt why John Howard, a man whose nose could smell trouble from miles away, twice shied away from making Australians pay a deposit to enter a nursing home.

It’s understandable why old people resent having to liquidate their assets to pay for accommodation in places all of us would prefer to be spared.

It’s understandable, too, why their middle-aged children would prefer those assets to eventually end up in their hands rather than Australian Unity’s or Uniting Care’s.

Call it a death tax by another name but there’s a crisis coming in aged care and the amount we spend on it is going to go from eye-watering to eye-popping in no time at all.

Leader of the Opposition Peter Dutton during Question Time. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese during Question Time. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman

According to Albo’s Aged Care Taskforce, total government two years ago total spending on aged care was $24.8bn with residential care at $14.6bn soaking up the lion’s share, and the balance going on Home Care Packages and the Commonwealth Home Support Program.

By 2032, it estimates this will more than double to almost $58bn – $41.2bn of which will be spent on residential care and $15.5bn on his soon to be unveiled Support at Home Program.

As strange as this may sound, finding that money is actually not the most immediate problem.

The real problem right now is, for a number of reasons including the extra costs that have flowed from Albo’s election promises and Scott Morrison’s royal commission, basically half of the nursing homes in Australia are losing money.

Which, unless something done, is only going to get worse. And, because this has been the case for some time now, no one has been building nursing homes for roughly five years.

Which is a big problem as the demand is about to explode.

According to a very knowledgeable industry source, from go-to-whoa it takes around five years to build a nursing home.

This source estimated that because of the capital strike there are only half the number of beds we need ready to go with the necessary approvals.

In other words, if we are going to avoid a truly awful mess by the end of this decade, something needs to start happening really quickly.

And that something is going to be the expectation that those who can, will have to pay more.

Everyone in the Coalition knows this but just as with reform of the NDIS, the consensus is this is a job best left to the Labor Party.

Senator Ann Rushton. Picture: AAP Image/Kelly Barnes

We’ve yet to see the details but the expectation is the deal Anne Ruston has reached with the government will see the amount people who fall on the wrong side of the means test will pay in nursing homes – for everything that is not clinical care – will rise.

The other great change in this space will apparently be that henceforth the bond that people currently pay when they move into a nursing home will no longer be returned in full to their heirs after they have shuffled off this mortal coil but will instead be eaten away by two per cent a year.

There will be similar increases in charges the better off will have to pay for the non-clinical services they get under their home care packages.

The government hopes this will cut the current waiting list of 55,000 people who have been assessed and approved for home care as well as allowing the scheme to grow.

The good news for Gen-Xers who have already put our parents into aged care is that all these changes have been grandfathered.

The rest of you need to get your skates on, because they will take effect on July 1.

Originally published as The Coalition knows there’s an aged care crisis coming – but that’s a Labor problem | James Campbell