Opinion: Voter beware as Barnaby set to take his base to One Nation

If voters desert the Nationals for the Trump-like One Nation, they might get more than they bargained for, warns Paul Williams.

There’s one political party on the march since the May federal election, and it might not be the one you expect.

And the success of that party might bring radical changes Australians might not want or need.

How quickly fortunes change.

That’s why British Labour prime minister Harold Wilson in 1964 uttered one of the most repeated quotes on the fortunes of political parties in a democracy.

“A week is a long time in politics,” Wilson said during that year’s currency crisis.

In a social media world cradling a 24/7 news cycle, we might say a solitary hour is the new political week, sufficient to make or break any party’s fortunes.

But, paradoxically, a scan of public opinion polls since the federal election shows Labor’s first-preference vote has hardly changed at all.

This month’s Roy Morgan survey gives Labor 35 per cent, almost identical to its 34.6 per cent in May.

The Greens, too, are static on 13 per cent – on par with their 12.2 per cent won just five months ago.

Independents have hardly moved either, attracting 9 per cent in a recent Resolve poll, only slightly higher than their 7.4 per cent in May.

The only significant movements have been the Liberal-National Coalition, down five points to 27 per cent, and a slew of micro-parties from the Left and Right now collectively polling 13 per cent, or almost double their May result.

But the truly gob-smacking numbers are found in Pauline Hanson’s One Nation, which an October Redbridge poll has pegged at 14 per cent – more than double its May performance.

One Nation, of course, has come into sharper focus this week after former Nationals leader Barnaby Joyce announced he will not recontest his New England seat, with reports he will also resign from the Nationals amid rumours – since dismissed – he would join and possibly lead the populist party in the Senate.

Hanson herself insisted Joyce would be a better fit for One Nation and, at just 58, the popular Joyce could easily extend One Nation’s appeal long after Hanson’s looming retirement. Worryingly, a Joyce defection would also see a haemorrhaging of National Party MPs and branch members to further strengthen One Nation’s base.

No wonder Pauline is keen to snaffle him.

Barnaby Joyce would boost an already-buoyant One Nation.

Nonetheless, the mere suggestion Joyce might jump ship has seen some very angry fingers pointed at Nationals leader David Littleproud and Liberal leader Sussan Ley.

First, the Coalition’s woes are hardly Littleproud’s problem: the Nationals outside Queensland saw their primary vote grow at the last election.

Yes, there were big swings against Liberal National MPs in (formerly National) Queensland regional seats, but those swings were more about Dutton’s dour leadership, a non-existent policy target, and nonsense culture wars that do nothing to build houses or lower grocery prices.

To blame Ley personally for Joyce’s dummy-spit is almost as foolish.

Yes, the Liberals’ vote had gone south under her watch (but not as much as it did under Morrison and Dutton’s).

But in terms of leader satisfaction, Ley, on minus-five points approval, is today performing better than Albanese on minus-six.

So why the spike in One Nation support, and why at the Coalition’s expense?

It’s rooted in the fact there are today two National parties: Joyce’s 1960s Country Party demanding trade protection and archaic social values amid climate science scepticism, and the modern Nationals accepting of free trade, man-made climate change and 21st century social structures.

For Joyce and thousands of regional voters, Australia’s bipartisan commitment to get the nation to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 is beyond the pale – despite 84 per cent of Australians demanding action on global warming.

And it’s this ill-conceived anger that’s driving regional Australia into One Nation’s suspiciously open arms.

Yet do these voters know what they’re signing up for by leaving the Nationals – the best friend rural Australians are ever likely to have – for a Trump-like outfit offering superficially easy solutions to complex problems, and led by a president-for-life?

One Nation has long wanted to supplant the Liberal and National Coalition as the principal party to fill Australia’s centre Right.
But there is nothing centrist about One Nation and its desire to push our diverse and tolerant country to the far-right margins of division and fanaticism.

If Barnaby Joyce has a problem with the Nationals and its leadership, he should state his case at an election and contest a seat as an independent.

To join the chaotic One Nation – with its history of disgruntled members and MPs will confirm Joyce as part of Australia’s problem of, and not solution to, our growing national division.

Be careful what you wish for.

Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University

Originally published as Opinion: Voter beware as Barnaby set to take his base to One Nation