Opinion: How Dutton let an election-winning lead slip through his fingers

Peter Dutton has just had his worst two months as Liberal leader since his Voice victory, writes Paul Williams. VOTE IN OUR POLL

Federal Coalition MPs undoubtedly enjoyed a relaxing Christmas and a celebratory new year, confident in the belief a Dutton-led government was increasingly on the cards.

The polls certainly bore this out. A Roy Morgan survey in late December saw the Coalition lead Labor 53 to 47 per cent. That was a five-percentage-point swing and an extra 15 seats for Dutton – just six short of a majority.

With the cost of living still biting and a prime minister seemingly on the back foot, the Coalition was sure it could build its momentum and win government at a May election.

But even the best-laid plans turn to ashes. In short, Peter Dutton has just had his worst two months as Liberal leader since his emphatic victory over the Voice to Parliament referendum in late 2023.

In February, the Coalition – after 26 poll victories – lost the after-preference vote for the first time since November. Since then, the Liberal and National parties have lost three of the previous 10 published polls, including the most recent Morgan survey which places Labor three points ahead of the Coalition, 47.5 to 51.5 per cent. On those figures, it’s not only certain Albanese will retain government, it’s also an outside chance he could maintain his narrow majority.

So what’s gone right for Albo and gone so wrong for Dutton?

The most obvious tipping point was the Reserve Bank’s February interest rate cut that many assumed was too little, too late. But anecdotally, the cut – like Queensland Labor leader Steven Miles’s 50c public transport fares – has been gratefully accepted by a stressed electorate. Another rate cut next month will only further enhance Albo’s standing.

Second, Labor’s $9bn pledge to buttress bulk-billing did much to put Labor back on the front foot, and reassure Australians their much-loved Medicare system is in safe hands. And third, while Albo was hardly Anna Bligh during Cyclone Alfred, his presence in Queensland contrasted strongly with Dutton’s absence.

By extension, Dutton has had a shocking couple of months. First, he pledged to remove 36,000 public servants – including those working in the regions – to pay for his own bulk-billing promise. Second, the Opposition Leader took a personal hit when his envious critics – like Albo’s detractors after the Prime Minister bought a holiday home – pilloried him for being wealthy.

But Dutton copped more flak after attending a Liberal Party fundraiser in Sydney just as Cyclone Alfred was bearing down on Brisbane.

More worryingly, Dutton now stands accused of overreach in his reaction to what we now know was a fake terror plot. At best, it looks like Dutton doesn’t do his homework; at best, he must now defend accusations he politicised Australia’s national security.

There’s also the Coalition’s ham-fisted attempt to blame Albanese personally for not securing a tariff exemption – when no nation on Earth did – from a dizzy Donald Trump. Most Australians dislike Trump, and any Coalition attempt to side with the US President will backfire badly.

Queensland Labor leader Steven Miles’s 50c public transport fares were well received.

Last, it seems Australians are growing weary of a Coalition small-target policy that appears to be shrinking day by day. How long as it been since Dutton even mentioned his flagship nuclear power policy?

All this is reflected in the preferred prime minister ratings. Where, in January, a Resolve Strategic poll found Dutton leading Albanese as preferred prime minister, 39 to 34 points, this month’s Newspoll pegs Albo in front, 47 to 38 per cent.

Despite Labor’s recovery, the most likely outcome from a May election is still a hung parliament, with Labor best placed to form minority government. Of course, this depends on the survival of Teal MPs in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth who will be called upon to support Labor on “confidence and supply” in the House of Representatives.

Some commentators have speculated the Teals are in trouble. But are they? In short, no. The Teals’ primary vote is roughly where it was in 2022. Moreover, the Australian Election Study found the vast majority of Teal voters were not – as many assumed – disgruntled Liberal voters but, instead, Labor and Greens electors who voted Teal “tactically” to remove Liberal MPs.

But, above all else, the fact remains there is little evidence of a Liberal resurgence anywhere outside Queensland. While voters might be deserting Labor across the board, those deserters are not going to the Coalition. In last weekend’s Western Australian state election, for example, fewer than three in ten voters endorsed the Liberals despite the ravages of inflation.

For Peter Dutton and his colleagues, it might be a long time before the next celebratory drink.

Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University

Originally published as Opinion: How Dutton let an election-winning lead slip through his fingers