Opinion: 2025 set to be even more tumultuous than 2024

Twenty twenty-five will hardly be better – and in fact might be a damn sight worse – for Queenslanders, for Australians, for the world, writes Paul Williams.

The LNP’s David Crisafulli (right) dispatched Labor’s Steven Miles at the Queensland election...

The late Queen Elizabeth II described 1992 as her “annus horribilis” – the disastrous year – that saw the royal family suffer marital separation, divorce, and a fire at Windsor Castle.

As this political year closes, many would describe 2024 in similar terms. With American democracy crumbling around the re-election of an authoritarian felon, with conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza still raging, and with the cost of living still oppressive despite falls in headline inflation, very few across the world would feel happier or safer than they did 10 years ago.

Glad to see the end of 2024? Me too. But I have a feeling 2025 will hardly be better – and in fact might be a damn sight worse – for Queenslanders, for Australians, for the world.

Let’s start close to home. The new LNP government finished the year upbeat. Its Making Queensland Safer pledge is now law, and there have been no serious gaffes. But political honeymoons are notoriously short in the digital age – even more so for a Crisafulli government which talked up a 100-day benchmark for turning Queensland around. Those 100 days expire in early February (just before Parliament resumes) but, sadly, voters today are increasingly impatient. If Queenslanders feel their lives are no better – if there is no noticeable turnaround in cost of living, hospital ramping and crime sometime next year – the swinging voter (arguably unfairly) will sour on Crisafulli. With changes to BPIC conditions looming, we can also expect a record level of industrial strife, with major infrastructure costs and delivery times further blowing out. Labor, still seething over its defeat, will skewer the LNP at every opportunity.

But state Labor faces its own problems. Party unity, once the great virtue of every Labor government from that of Wayne Goss to Steven Miles, is now at risk. The tribulations of opposition always increase party tensions, but the internal brawling over the LNP’s youth justice laws is both surprising and perilous. Voters do not support divided parties. If Labor cannot smooth over its internal cracks, factional warfare could once again make the party unelectable.

Federally, the worst kept secret in Australian politics is that Albo is in real trouble, with many Labor MPs now blaming the Prime Minister personally for losing the electorate’s confidence and allowing opposition leader Peter Dutton to control the media agenda.

... and federal Coalition leader Peter Dutton (right) will be looking to do the same to Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Labor will lose at least 10 seats next May, pushing it into minority government and requiring Teal and Greens support. Even if returned, Labor will see its Senate numbers also fall, making deal-making harder there, too.

But the federal Coalition is hardly off the hook. While the Opposition has had a dream run since Labor’s disastrous referendum pitch, Dutton’s embrace of nuclear energy – enjoying only minority support over safety issues, an eye-watering price tag and years before operation – could prove to be the biggest political overreach since John Howard’s workplace reforms. The Coalition’s problem is that a dislike for Labor does not automatically translate into an embrace of Dutton who, for much of Middle Australia, remains an unpalatable product unworthy of purchase.

Minor parties, too, have a lot to ponder in 2025. After the Greens’ disappointing Queensland election result, what should be a sure thing to retain all three federal seats in Brisbane is now an uncertainty. The party, attempting to broaden its base and replace Labor as the default Left option, seriously misjudged a middle class unimpressed with Senate obstructionism, unilateralism in the Israeli-Gaza conflict, and marching with the CFMEU. With voters concerned principally with grocery prices, mortgage rates and insurance premiums, the Teals must be wondering if they’ve worn out their welcome too.

But Pauline Hanson’s One Nation might also lose next May as Senator Malcolm Roberts fights an uphill battle to hold his seat after PHON’s own disappointing state election result. Watch out for both Legalise Cannabis and the Jacqui Lambie Network as real contenders for Roberts’ seat.

Then there are the international woes that will inevitably hurt Australia, too. It’s certain, for example, that Trump’s tariffs and deportation of low-paid migrant workers will send US production costs soaring, with inflation, unemployment and recession sinking not just the American economy but Australia’s also. And that’s leaving aside a Trump isolationism that will embolden Putin to crush Ukraine and, potentially, other eastern powers. What message does that send China over US protection of Taiwan?

If next year is an “horribilis plus”, expect to utter another Latin phrase: “nihil admirari” – be surprised by nothing.

Dr Paul Williams is an associate professor at Griffith University

Originally published as Opinion: 2025 set to be even more tumultuous than 2024