My view: Today is a make-or-break day for state Labor

Today is when Treasurer Cameron Dick will bet the bank on an electoral return from billions of dollars in handouts to Queenslanders, writes the editor.

Today is a make-or-break day for state Labor on its journey towards an unlikely return to power after the October 26 election. Today is when Treasurer Cameron Dick will bet the bank on an electoral return from billions of dollars in handouts to Queenslanders.

To his credit, he is not trying to hide the reality. He told the state Labor caucus on Monday that the unveiling of a massive spend in today’s state budget would mark the start of the election campaign – a 137-day battle for every vote Labor can prise back from the LNP, the side that most polling suggests is on track to win seven seats than it needs for a majority.

Treasurer and Deputy Premier Cameron Dick. Picture: Liam Kidston

The Treasurer boasted he would deliver “the greatest cost-of-living budget that any state government has ever done in Australia” – with at least $5bn to be spent on relief to Queensland families facing an inflationary economy where the “seas are still storming and the skies are still dark”.

Will it be enough? Time will tell. There is a certain irony in the fact a state government that refuses to spend $3bn on a necessary stadium apparently because of political concerns over spending has in one year managed to spend every cent of a $30bn or so windfall from coal mining royalties.

But perhaps Queenslanders who are struggling to make ends meet will forgive the government for its cynical vote-buying spree. After all, history shows that swinging voters do tend to cast their ballot on what it means for their own hip pocket.

All the published polls have had Labor’s primary vote pegged at an election-losing 26 or 27 per cent. But the Together Union says that it commissioned uComms polling in mid-May that recorded a bounce in Labor’s primary vote to 30 per cent – and an election-winning 36 per cent if all as-yet undecided voters were forced to pick a side.

That polling was taken in the wake of the government’s offer to slash $1000 off every household’s power bill this year – and so indicated “a significant shift in community sentiment as a result of the government’s cost-of-living measures”, according to Together Union boss Alex Scott.

Premier Steven Miles and Deputy Premier Cameron Dick.

Since then, the government has added promises of a flat rate of just 50c for public transport fares, a 20 per cent cut to registration fees this year, and now a freeze to the cost of all government charges for a year.

There has been some criticism of Opposition Leader David Crisafulli over the past week for having said his government would honour any measures in today’s budget, before he has even seen it. But that polling shows why he hadno choice: He must avoid the election becoming a referendum on handouts while that cost-of-living weather report is still dark and stormy.

Mr Crisafulli’s challenge will be to build a narrative that can act as his own icing on the tempting sugar-hit of the government’s cake.

He has been reticent to do so, saying Labor will simply copy him – as it did over the weekend when lifting the stamp duty threshold for first-home buyers.

On Thursday, he will deliver his budget reply speech, which he plans to use to outline how he would tackle the housing crisis – something that has not exactly been a strong point for the Miles government, because it is harder than just giving voters money.

This will be a notable occasion for Mr Crisafulli. In many respects it will see him firing the starter’s gun on his own campaign. So strap in, there are just 137 days to go.

Originally published as My view: Today is a make-or-break day for state Labor