Is it time for new leader? Four lessons from Labor’s by-election bloodbath

The fact Labor lost a safe seat in Ipswich West is setting off alarm bells bodes very ill indeed for any number of regional seats from the Sunshine Coast to Cape York, writes Paul Williams as he reveals the four big takeaways front the weekend wipe-out.

By-elections are tricky beasts. They can offer genuine portents of doom for tired and poor-performing governments, or they can provide false hope for forlorn oppositions swinging gently in the breeze.

Usually, we can’t take too many lessons from a single by-election. I remember two massive swings, in the 1988 Adelaide and Port Adelaide federal by-elections, that spelled the end of the Hawke Labor Government. But Labor snuck home in 1990 with just a tiny 0.9 per cent swing against it.

And the Albanese Government, in a once-in-a-century event, last year pinched a seat from the opposition at the Aston by-election. Does that mean federal Labor will cut a swath through the Liberal heartland at the next federal poll? Almost certainly not.

No, by-election lessons are often illusory. But, as we saw last weekend, sometimes those lessons are real. Very real.

If Labor’s messaging is falling on deaf Inala ears, how poorly is it being received in must-win but far more marginal Brisbane seats like Redlands, Aspley and Mansfield? Photo Steve Pohlner

Lesson number one. The fact Labor lost a safe seat (held by a 15-point margin) in Ipswich West is setting off alarm bells. Yes, Ipswich West can be volatile – Pauline Hanon’s One Nation won it in 1998, then soon lost it – but the fact Labor’s primary vote collapsed by 15 points tells us Labor is in serious trouble outside metropolitan Brisbane.

This bodes very ill indeed for any number of regional seats from the Sunshine Coast to Cape York.

Lesson number two. The fact Labor’s primary vote in its safest seat, Inala, fell by almost 30 points is staggering. This, even more than Ipswich West, is Labor heartland. Yes, some of that vote was wrapped up in the end of the 40-year Palaszczuk dynasty, but much more was wound round two highly sensitive issues: youth crime and, of course, the cost of living. Official inflation figures might be coming down, but a visit to the supermarket is still as painful as ever.

Leader of the Opposition David Crisafulli. Picture Lachie Millard

Moreover, if Labor’s messaging is falling on deaf Inala ears, how poorly is it being received in must-win but far more marginal Brisbane seats like Redlands, Aspley and Mansfield?

These results also suggest Queenslanders – initially giving new premier Steven Miles the benefit of the doubt – have finally made up its mind: to borrow from The Who, meet the new boss; same as the old boss.

Lesson number three. Labor’s performance at the Brisbane City Council elections tells us the entire Labor brand is damaged, even in Brisbane.

Indeed, it’s remarkable that – after 20 years’ incumbency – the Liberal-National Party’s primary vote hardly moved at either mayoral or ward level. Despite urban congestion and Brisbane City Council budget cuts, the LNP brand has held up.

LNP’s new member for Ipswich West Darren Zanow with Candidate for Inala Trang Yen, who contributed to a 29 per cent swing away from Labor. Picture Lachie Millard

Compare that to a Labor Party that enjoyed a few localised swings but a fall in its mayoral and ward vote of around five points. Worse still, most of the Greens’ increased vote has come at Labor’s expense and not the LNP’s. Again, this suggests a wider problem of a damaged Labor brand rather than any specific problem with Labor candidate Tracey Price. And that, too, is alarming for any number of Brisbane-based Labor MPs.

And, perhaps most important, is lesson number four. Last week’s Newspoll gives us the most solid evidence that, just seven months before the next state election, Queenslanders have made up their minds.

With Labor polling just 30 per cent of the primary vote (a fall of 10 points since the 2020 state election) and the LNP soaring to 42 per cent (six points up from 2020), it’s again clear Labor’s image is in tatters. With the LNP now capturing 54 per cent of the after-preference vote – about a seven per cent swing from 2020 – the opposition, for the first time since 2012, is now in a position to form majority government.

So, will 2024 be a re-run of Campbell Newman’s 2012 Labor rout? Probably not. If a state election were held this Saturday, the LNP would win about 53 of the state’s 92 seats, with Labor reduced to about 31 if two additional Labor seats fall, as expected, to the Greens.

Of course, much can change in the space of seven months. Inflation could again spike, Premier Miles could make an egregious gaffe, and a particularly appalling crime on election eve could punish Labor even further.

Can Labor do anything to reverse, or even slow, its inevitable defeat? Not much, but it could try. And everything should be on the table, including another leadership change to the popular Shannon Fentiman, and a free-for-all cash splash at this year’s state budget.

But, worryingly for Labor, it seems Queenslanders have stopped listening.

Originally published as Is it time for new leader? Four lessons from Labor’s by-election bloodbath