For Steven Miles, mastering the ‘best days ahead’ narrative means stemming flow of bankruptcy

Queensland has endured another round of summer storms that will put a significant dent in the budget, so economic challenges will come into sharper focus in an election year, says Dan Petrie.

Last week, food bank charity OzHarvest reported increasing numbers of people breaking into warehouses and stealing food as the numbers of bankruptcies rise and private sector investment begins to moderate.

The Queensland economy, despite some of the ridiculous claims by the state government about being the envy of the nation, is contending with the unwinding of the Covid-induced record stimulus programs authored by state and federal governments during that same period that has ushered in a suite of new problems.

Record house prices are one such factor.

Chef Kara Kara Urbanska with Suncorp Bank’s Nick Fernando in the new kitchen where Suncorp has teamed up with OzHarvest to help fund a kitchen space in Brisbane that will provide up to an additional 52,000 cooked meals each year to help feed Queenslanders in need. Picture: Lyndon Mechielsen/Courier Mail

Australians bragging about wealth based on the practice of selling houses to each other against a backdrop of a federal government losing control of the migration program has only spurred greater asset price inflation meaning the cost-of-living crisis is already overwhelming many in the community.

It is very hard to be solvent in anything if costs continually exceed income.

Business collapses and personal bankruptcies rising comes at a time when the number of households at risk of mortgage stress is almost one in three, according to research firm, Roy Morgan.

This number is also telling as the household mortgage in many cases doubles as the line of credit for many family businesses as lending rates for going concerns from banks are more likely to touch 8 per cent for a secured loan.

Business collapses and personal bankruptcies rising comes at a time when the number of households at risk of mortgage stress is almost one in three, according to research firm, Roy Morgan.

Bankruptcy data is depressing at the best of times, but as a leading indicator, a necessary evil in understanding the mood of the local economy.

Before Covid, Queensland maintained in raw numbers alone the highest number of insolvencies nationally and since the various protections that were rushed through during the pandemic. That number is rising again.

Analysing data provided by the Australian Financial Security Authority, the total number of court-ordered and voluntary personal insolvencies arrangements was 951 nationally in October, with Queensland accounting for more than 25 per cent with 258 in October.

Retail, construction and interestingly those businesses involved with health care and social services collectively account for more than half of insolvencies in relation to the same data for the state.

Premier Steven Miles. Picture: David Clark

Treasurer Cameron Dick. Picture: Steve Pohlner

Since 2019, Queensland and NSW have jockeyed for the unenviable top spot, but if the same numbers were overlaid on a metric such as per capita, then the Sunshine State is the winner.

Interestingly, before the pandemic, these numbers were higher but the numbers of Australians hanging on would suggest that number will march higher in 2024.

Queensland has endured another round of summer storms that will also put a significant dent in the state’s budget.

And while Premier Steven Miles and Treasurer Cameron Dick have fronted the cameras to talk up the state’s finances, the challenges facing the state economically will come into sharper focus in an election year.

The Queensland economy is contending with the unwinding of the Covid-induced record stimulus programs authored by state and federal governments, says Dan Petrie.

At its core, the state economy – despite the billions of dollars of investment into new industries – is still a farm and quarry economy.

Tourism is hard to quantify in terms of a contributor and assessing visitor numbers amid the latest seasonal downpours will almost certainly drag on the state economy.

The brochures and much of hyperbole around the state economy about our best days ahead of us cannot mask some very serious problems Queensland faces.

Business investment and a plan around affordable housing will be obvious key battleground topics ahead of the state poll in October.

But for the newish Premier Mr Miles, mastering the “best days ahead” narrative means stemming the flow of people declaring bankruptcy.

A tough balancing act following storms and economic tide that is starting to go out.

Originally published as For Steven Miles, mastering the ‘best days ahead’ narrative means stemming flow of bankruptcy