Editorial: The truth behind latest Qld police statistics

Approaching what politicians say with a healthy dose of scepticism is always recommended, and it holds true with the Premier’s crime numbers, writes the editor.

Premier David Crisafulli during budget estimates this week. Picture: Liam Kidston

The saying that there are “lies, damned lies and statistics” is of contested origin, but its meaning is clearly understood – that statistics can be manipulated to support any argument you are trying to make.

So it is with this week’s release by Premier David Crisafulli of the latest crime statistics – a critical number for him personally, as he has staked his political career on a reduction in the number of crime victims before the next election.

The stakes, then, being so high has fuelled scepticism, as it should, about the very positive-looking set of numbers Mr Crisafulli released on Tuesday – data that suggested victim numbers had fallen 5.7 per cent statewide on a per capita basis, from 75,804 in the first half of last year to 72,588 this year.

But as we often observe in this column, all politicians – no matter their party – are cut from the same cloth. Approaching what they say with a healthy dose of scepticism is always recommended.

And indeed that truth holds when it comes to Mr Crisafulli’s numbers. First, the reduction he is spruiking is now a per capita drop, which is not precisely what he promised during the campaign.

Second, they are Queensland police data rather than Australian Bureau of Statistics figures – and so were different in that they did not include the category of “other thefts”.

According to the ABS, in 2023 there were more than 150,000 victims of “other theft” in Queensland – and that category included “theft from retail premises”.

Labor pounced on this anomaly, as you would expect for something so central to Mr Crisafulli’s pledge to deliver for Queensland.

Opposition Leader Steven Miles trumpeted: “Tens of thousands of Queenslanders are no longer considered victims in the eyes of David Crisafulli. Victims of other theft could be the local independent grocer who has had stock swiped from their shelves.”

Mr Crisafulli countered that “other thefts” could often relate to victimless crimes, and then came up with the obscure example of street signs being damaged as being a crime that would also be included in that category: “You’re counting a street sign as a victim of crime.”

But Mr Crisafulli then delivered a twist, revealing that if other theft had been included in the figures he released, then the crime rate would have fallen even further.

Mr Miles continued his outrage, accusing Mr Crisafulli of having “cut corners” and “cherry-picked”.

Are you keeping up? If so, you are doing better than most. The good news is that crime does appear to have dropped, compared with a year ago. This would make sense – one line that has certainly cut through is Mr Crisafulli’s “adult crime, adult time” mantra that threatens young offenders with the punishments equal to those given to adults for a range of serious offences.

Logic suggests that it would have given at least some would-be offenders something to think about before going through with a crime.

Our view? Despite all the argy-bargy and political point-scoring on both sides, it does appear that things are not as bad as they were a year ago. And that certainly tracks with our sense in a newsroom that is closely attuned to such matters.

But it is just one period of data, compared year on year. This is not yet a trend. That next election where Mr Crisafulli has invited voters to cast their judgment on these matters is in October 2028 – more than three years from now.

So far, Mr Crisafulli and our police service deserve credit for this turn-around. But it is very early days.

Mr Crisafulli is acutely aware of this too, and rightly said: “This is a very small step forward after 10 years of excuses, rising crime, and a youth crime crisis that has gripped every part of the state ... If you’re asking whether or not I’m popping champagne corks, we’re a long way off. We haven’t even put it on ice.”

We would suggest it is far too early to even buy the champagne. There is obviously lots of work still to do.

RATE CUT NEEDED SOON

We are definitely not economists, but you really do not need to be one to know an interest rate cut should be made next month – with the latest figures showing our inflation rate continues to slow.

The new Australian Bureau of Statistics data reveal that the Reserve Bank’s preferred measure of inflation – the annual trimmed mean – was 2.7 per cent in the June quarter, down from 2.9 per cent in the previous quarter. That was its lowest since December 2021, at the height of the economic hit of the Covid pandemic.

Australians with a mortgage were disappointed last month when the RBA kept rates on hold, taking a cautious approach.

Well, it is time for them to act at their next meeting on August 12.

Then it will on to the banks to do their job – passing whatever the cut is, in full, to their customers.

The Covid pandemic was an era-defining shock not unlike a war. Its ramifications will be felt for many years to come.

Returning interest rates to a more normal setting is one step in that process, but a critical one.

Responsibility for election comment is taken by Chris Jones, corner of Mayne Rd & Campbell St, Bowen Hills, Qld 4006. Printed and published by NEWSQUEENSLAND (ACN 009 661 778). Contact details here

Originally published as Editorial: The truth behind latest Qld police statistics