Analysis: $12.3b once-in-a-lifetime chance for significant change totally blown

With an unprecedented $12.3 billion surplus the state government had a once-in-a-lifetime chance to deliver transformative change. Instead it’s been blown on rebates, a bit of debt and planned roads, writes Matthew Killoran.

The unprecedented $12.3 billion surplus is a once-in-a-lifetime boon which could deliver transformative change for the state and its people, or we could blow it on some rebates, pay down some debt and roads that were already on the cards.

In the Treasurer’s own words it is the largest budget surplus ever recorded by any state or territory, and is greater than all but four federal surpluses.

But what will Queensland have to show for it in a year’s time, in five years’ time, in ten?

Meanwhile, it was the coal royalty hike that delivered this golden nest egg.

Queensland Treasurer Cameron Dick giving his budget speech today. Picture: Dan Peled / NCA NewsWire

It was this very tax which led to major companies like BHP deciding to pause new investment in the state and Japan warning that Queensland was being associated with “sovereign risk” for the first time.

There is no Smart State here, no Cross River Rail or out-of-the-box idea to significantly lift productivity, create new industries with high-paying jobs or transform the state’s economy.

These are what would improve quality of life for Queenslanders in the long term.

Treasurer Cameron Dick says it is paying down debt – but net debt is still growing over the forwards.

The $550 energy bill rebate and $1072 for vulnerable Queenslanders will be a welcome relief for many people.

It does appear to be somewhat at odds with Federal Treasurer Jim Chalmers who was at pains to deliver highly-targeted relief to avoid adding to inflation.

Treasurer Cameron Dick and Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk during a press conference in the 2023/24 state budget lockup at Parliament House in Brisbane on Tuesday. Picture: Dan Peled / NCA NewsWire

Energy rebates can apply downward pressure on inflation, by bringing costs down, and freeing up cash for the most vulnerable won’t lead to huge cash splurges on TVs or luxuries.

But, perhaps with an eye towards the election next year, Mr Dick stressed that unlike the Albanese Government’s rebates in last month’s federal budget his rebates were going to “all Queenslanders”.

The $645 million over four years to ensure free kindy for all four-year-olds will boost productivity by helping more parents get back to work or be able to work more hours.

But it is shy of the universal access for three-year-olds being pushed for by the early education sector and even starting to be rolled out in some jurisdictions like the ACT.

There is more money for health, but not the large-scale reform needed to fix the embattled Queensland Health.

Coal royalties delivered a $15 billion nest egg for the state. Picture: AAP image/John Gass

Money is being provided for roads, rail and dams, but the Coomera Connector, Rookwood Weir and light rail have been on the cards for some time.

The $12 billion surplus is for this financial year. It’s a $2 billion deficit next and wafer thin surpluses after that.

All while the industry which delivered the surplus is questioning investment in the state, and faces uncertain future in the decarbonising world.

It risks scrambling the golden egg while the goose is cooked.

Originally published as Analysis: $12.3b once-in-a-lifetime chance for significant change totally blown