Eden-Monaro, Farrer, Riverina, Calare 2025: Kristy McBain, Sussan Ley and Michael McCormack

Kristy McBain, Sussan Ley and Michael McCormack start election night favourites to retain their NSW seats. But is there a surprise or two in store?

11PM UPDATE

Calare incumbent Andrew Gee has called his race, and is already planning on introducing a bill to protect prime agricultural land once parliament resumes.

No candidates have broken a 30 per cent primary vote as of Saturday night for Calare, but Gee was confident of retaining the seat.

National Party candidate Sam Farraway has had an 18 per cent swing against him on primary votes, with independent candidate Andrew Gee leading the race.

Gee had 15,838 votes tallied, while Farraway had 19,772. The AEC have counted 72,849 votes so far, with 67,568 formal votes.

Independent Kate Hook has reasonably strong standing with a primary vote of more than 16 per cent, pushing Labor candidate Julie Cunningham into fourth place with 10 per cent.

Gee, at his election function at the Orange City Bowling Club, said the Nationals were yet to concede but that he had won the race.

“It’s been a David and Goliath battle,” he said. “We’re all just relieved and exhausted, our team colours are navy and orange, and the orange line was definitely stretched during this campaign but it never broke.”

Gee said he would focus on cost of living, rural doctor shortages, a “workable” energy policy, and protecting prime agricultural land.

He said he would, alongside Bob Katter, introduce a bill to parliament to protect farmland.

“It’ll be a tough fight because the government will probably have to be dragged into it, and pushed into it, but I think we have a really strong case for it,” he said.

“There’s got to be some work done on what our bill will look like, but we’re up for it.”

9PM UPDATE

The AEC has suspended the two-party preferred count in Farrer between Liberal Sussan Ley and Labor’s Glenn Hyde due to the strong showing of independent, Michelle Milthorpe.

Ms Ley is on track to retain the seat despite a 10.29 per cent swing against her on primary votes.

But Ms Milthorpe’s lead over Mr Hyde is growing, 11,606 to 7968, in the latest count.

Eden-Monaro Labor MP Kristy McBain is on track to have an even bigger stranglehold on the seat after this election.

She leads 56.70 per cent to 43.30 per cent against Liberal Jo van der Plaat on a two-party preferred basis with the former Bega Shire mayor’s primary vote increasing by 2.59 per cent.

Former Nationals MP Andrew Gee, who is running as an independent, is on track to win Calare, leading 57.02 per cent to 42.98 per cent, over Nationals’ Sam Farraway.

8PM UPDATE

In Farrer, the AEC is still counting votes on a two-party preferred basis, showing Liberal Sussan Ley in front of Labor’s Glenn Hyde, 64.84 per cent to 35.16 per cent, a slight swing against the long-term member.

But independent candidate, schoolteacher Michelle Milthorpe, is polling strongly.

She has more first preference votes than Hyde, 5347 to 4337.

Labor is still in front in Eden-Monaro, 56.55 per cent to 43.45 per cent.

Riverina has already been put down as a Nationals hold with Michael McCormack well in front of Labor’s Mark Jefferson 72.34 per cent to 27.66 per cent.

Former Nationals MP Andrew Gee is still in front of Nationals’ Sam Farraway in Calare, 55.29 per cent to 44.71 per cent.

7PM UPDATE

Early counting, predictably, has Michael McCormack on track to retain the seat of Riverina.

On a two-party preferred result, the former newspaper editor was at 73.25 per cent ahead of Labor candidate Mark Jefferson 26.75 per cent.

Coalition counter, Liberal Sussan Ley, leads in Farrer, over Labor’s Glen Hyde 69.36 per cent to 30.64 per cent.

Former Nationals MP Andrew Gee’s bid to retain the seat of Calare as an independent is on track early.

He leads Nationals’ Sam Farraway, 58.15 per cent to 41.85 per cent.

Labor’s Kristy McBain is leading early in Eden-Monaro against Liberal, Jo van der Plaat 55.49 per cent to 44.51 per cent.

STATE OF PLAY

Stretching from Queanbeyan, through Cooma, down to dairy country around Bega and the holiday havens of Narooma and Merimbula, Labor’s Kristy McBain heads into election night poised to retain Eden-Monaro, according to the bookies.

Sitting on a 6.1 per cent, Ms McBain originally won the seat at a by-election in 2020 and had a surge of support three years ago.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visited Bega early in the campaign to stump up some cash for a repair job on the local swimming pool.

Ms McBain’s seven rivals include Liberal Jo van der Plaat.

Liberal Sussan Ley has held Farrer since 2001 and is facing a second concerted campaign from an independent candidate in the last three elections.

School teacher Michelle Milthorpe is the latest challenger.

Ms Ley holds the seat on a margin of 16.4 per cent and will require an upset of monumental proportions to lose.

Riverina is expected to be a safe hold for the Nationals with former newspaper editor Michael McCormack holding the seat on a 9.7 per cent margin.

Andrew Gee has held Calare since 2016, but unlike 2022, he won’t be running for the Nationals after a party split over the Voice referendum.

He will run as an independent as will Kate Hook, the Nationals being represented by Sam Farraway.

Originally published as Eden-Monaro, Farrer, Riverina, Calare 2025: Kristy McBain, Sussan Ley and Michael McCormack