Federal election 2025: Regional Australia’s seat form guide

Several regional seats across southeastern Australia will be closely watched this Saturday night. Here’s the state-of-play as the nation decides the next government.

Australia is set to discover on Saturday night who will get the keys to The Lodge for the next three years — and whether they’ll govern with a majority or in a minority.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is seeking to become only the third Labor PM to win a second term after Gough Whitlam and Bob Hawke.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is seeking to upturn electoral history by confining the Albanese Government to a single term — the first time since the Depression era of the 1930s.

There is a third option, that of a hung parliament — with Indi MP Helen Haines, Mayo MP Rebekha Sharkie and Kennedy MP Bob Katter joined by the urban crossbench colleagues deciding who forms government and whether it can get its legislative agenda through the low house.

The Weekly Times has taken a closer look at the state of play for seats across regional Victoria, and beyond.

MONASH

(Liberal: 2.9 per cent)

Monash would have to be one of Victoria’s most confusing contests this election season. Former Liberal MP Russell Broadbent lost his party’s preselection after a dozen federal elections. Though he’s running as an independent, the bookmakers say new Liberal candidate Mary Aldred is likely to be the electorate’s next representative, with independent Deb Leonard also running a high-profile campaign.

WANNON

(Liberal: 3.8 per cent)

Coalition frontbencher Dan Tehan has held the seat for 15 years and is once again facing independent candidate Alex Dyson, in his third tilt at the seat. Tehan will perform well around the Hamilton, Camperdown and Colac regions whereas Dyson’s base appears to be focused on Warrnambool, which makes up a sizeable population block. The wildcard is the Surf Coast, which has joined Wannon from Corangamite after recent redistributions.

CORANGAMITE

(Labor: 7.8 per cent)

Like Wannon, Corangamite used to be a safe seat for the Liberal Party. But over the 1990s and 2000s, its boundary rapidly shifted eastwards to go from being a Western District seat to effectively a suburban Geelong constituency. The PM and Opposition Leader haven’t campaigned here like previous election cycles, a sign Labor MP Libby Coker is likely to retain the seat.

Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles

CORIO

(Labor: 12.5 per cent)

Future prime minister Bob Hawke made his first run for federal parliament in the Geelong-based seat in 1963. He lost, but two decades later achieved his lifelong ambition to be the nation’s leader. Another leadership aspirant, Deputy PM Richard Marles, now holds the seat, which has been ultra-safe for Labor for a generation.

NICHOLLS

(National: 15.8 per cent)

Previously known as Murray, Nicholls was held by former Fremantle Dockers coach Damian Drum until his 2022 retirement. His absence opened up an opportunity for Shepparton businessman Rob Priestley to run Drum’s National Party successor Sam Birrell into a close contest on 2022 election night, with the latter prevailing. This time around, Birrell is highly likely to have a primary vote blowout, with the benefit of incumbency and no high-profile independent challenger.

INDI

(Independent: 8.9 per cent)

Once the scene of huge media interest, independent Indi has fallen somewhat off the radar this electoral cycle. Originally won by rural independent trailblazer Cathy McGowan at the 2013 election, her successor Helen Haines now commands a sizeable margin of nearly 9 per cent going into the 2025 battle. Former mayor James Trenery is the Liberal candidate while the Nats opted to dodge the contest, which bookmakers say will be a third win for Haines.

MALLEE

(National: 19 per cent)

Former Mildura social worker Anne Webster is the constituency’s first female representative, the latest in a longline of Nats to represent the electorate covering a huge chunk of northeastern Victoria. In fact, only five people have represented Mallee since it was created at the 1949 election. Webster is highly likely to retain the seat, being one of the few MPs in the country who can win on first preference votes alone.

BENDIGO

(Labor: 11.2 per cent)

The seat used to swing between Liberal and Labor but now is firmly in the ALP camp. Former union organiser Lisa Chesters has held the seat for Labor since the 2013 election and is odds-on favourite to win a fifth term on Saturday. The National Party have talked up their chances in the deep red seat, but previous performances in the regional centre have resulted in single digit primary results.

Ballarat MP Catherine King

BALLARAT

(Labor: 13 per cent)

Former ­social worker Catherine King won the seat for Labor at the 2001 election, one of the few bright spots for the ALP on a good night for the Howard Government. She looks set to easily win a eighth term with Liberal candidate Paula Doran facing an almost insurmountable battle in a seat that was marginal a generation ago, but now solidly in the Labor column.

GIPPSLAND

(Nationals: 20.6 per cent)

The question isn’t whether Darren Chester is returned as Gippsland’s representative in Canberra. The real question is: by how much? With a whopping majority of 20.6 per cent, he rivals his party leader David Littleproud in outback Queensland as boasting one of the biggest majorities nationwide. For historical context, Gippsland hasn’t been this safe for the Nats (and it’s long been very safe) since party legend Peter Nixon held the seat in the 1970s.

MCEWEN

(Labor: 3.8 per cent)

Both Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton have been frequent visitors to McEwen this election cycle, making it arguably regional Victoria’s most contested electorate. That is, if you call it a regional electorate — with a bulk of McEwen’s voters living in Melbourne’s ever-growing northern suburban corridor. Labor MP Rob Mitchell is facing an uphill battle to retain the seat, with a close contest against Liberal challenger Jason McClintock too close to call.

HAWKE, CASEY, LATROBE and FLINDERS

All four constituencies have gained more attention than usual this election cycle with the major parties sensing frustration on Melbourne’s outer edge. Peter Dutton launched his final week of campaigning in Melton over the weekend, smack bang in the middle of Hawke. Three of the four seats are conventional Liberal vs Labor contests. Flinders, which covers the Mornington Peninsula, has a high-profile independent — reigning Victorian Father of the Year Ben Smith.

Eden Monaro has been a swing seat for several decades

NSW SEATS

EDEN-MONARO

(Labor 6.1 per cent)

Eden-Monaro used to be the swingiest of swing seats - once named by Canberra journalistic heavyweight Laurie Oakes as the ultimate bellwether electorate. These days, the bookies say Labor MP Kristy McBain is likely to retain the seat covering NSW’s southeastern corner after a surge in her primary vote at the 2022 election.

RIVERINA

(Nationals: 9.7 per cent)

A Federation seat, Riverina is a safe hold for the Nationals, with former Deputy Prime Minister Michael McCormack the local member since 2010. His hometown of Wagga is the capital of the Riverina, but Young, West Wyalong and Gundagai are among the important agricultural areas of his patch. Highly likely to stay in National Party hands.

FARRER

(Liberal: 16.4 per cent)

Once the seat of National Party leader and trains buff, the late Tim Fischer, Farrer has been held by Deputy Liberal Party leader Sussan Ley since 2001. There have been several independent challengers in the vast electorate over the past decade, with Michelle Milthorpe the latest to try to roll back some of Ley’s huge margin in 2025.

CALARE

(National: 9.7 per cent*)

One of the first electorates to be represented by a rural independent — the late Peter Andren — Calare returned to National Party hands under the long tenure of John Cobb. Cobb’s replacement, Andrew Gee, has held the seat since 2016. Elected three times as a National MP, Gee became an independent in early 2023 after a party split over the Voice referendum and will re-contest the seat against his former party. Another independent, Kate Hook, is running a high-profile campaign with in the three-horse race against National Party candidate Sam Farraway.

COWPER

(National: 2.4 per cent)

Covering the NSW coastal region around Coffs Harbour and Port Macquarie, Cowper’s footprint was represented by Lyne independent MP Rob Oakeshott during his time as a famous crossbencher during the Gillard years. A close contest is expected between National Party MP Pat Conaghan against independent candidate Caz Heise, who came close to winning the seat in 2022.

WA WILDCARD

BULLWINKEL

(Labor: 3.3 per cent)

A brand new seat, Bullwinkel was created for the 2025 election to accommodate erth’s ever-expanding eastern fringe. Labor candidate Trish Cook, Liberal candidate Matt Moran and National Party candidate Mia Davies make for an unorthodox three-horse race in a state where the Libs and Nats are far less collabrative than other states.