Australians are past the era of voting just Labor or Liberal, and the crossbench is about to get a lot messier

This election has proven that the age of most punters voting either Labor or Liberal is over — and the ongoing effects of this won’t bode well for either party, writes John Rolfe.

The era in which most people vote for one of the two main parties is over and Australian politics has entered a new age which will test the mettle not only of Labor and the Coalition but the rapidly expanding crossbench.

There were just six independent and minor party MPs following the 2019 federal election.

There were 16 after the 2022 poll and at 10pm on Saturday, there was a possibility it would rise even higher, with at least two new Teals in close battles with Coalition candidates.

Whatever the final number, it will remain a multiple of what it was just two terms ago.

As these figures show, the explosion in the size of the crossbench is a “relatively new phenomenon,” said Professor Andrea Carson of La Trobe University’s Department of Politics, Media and Philosophy.

While Labor will crow about its performance, Professor Carson said the reality is “the public is drifting away from rusted on support to the two traditional parties”.

One reason for this, she suggested, is fewer people now vote the way their parents did.

Another is people have less regard for politicians and parties – a feeling which has become stronger and more common because of the leadership churn that began with Julia Gillard toppling Kevin Rudd in 2010.

And we have seen the emergence of single-issue candidates and parties – most notably pro-climate politicians – who have given people reason to cast off traditional loyalties.

Plus our preferential voting system makes it easier for independents and minor parties to win than in countries such as the UK, which uses first-past-the-post.

The era in which most people vote for one of the two main parties is over and Australian politics has entered a new age. Picture: Getty

The major parties are likely to win less than 67 per cent of the primary vote.

In 2022, it was 68.3 per cent, which at the time was a record low.

That means support for minor parties and independents is at an all-time high.

By 10pm, there was no doubt the ALP had secured another three years in power.

However, even with its convincing win, Labor is still attracting a much smaller share of first preference votes than when Mark Latham was its federal leader.

That’s saying something.

Of course, after this result, the Liberal-National movement is in strife and must find new ways to either reclaim territory from the Teals or take more Labor seats.

Meanwhile the crossbenchers will now avoid having to decide whether to support a minority government.

But the Teals in particular will face a different and potentially more difficult challenge.

To maintain relevance.

For example, most Teals campaigned on the promise that they could deliver an emissions cut of 75 per cent by 2035.

A reduction of that magnitude is consistent with net zero by 2040 – not 2050. It would have major implications for the future of coal and gas exports, plus the timber industry. Setting such a target would lead to a much bigger shift in the mix of cars we drive, too.

Labor hasn’t set a 2035 aim yet but has to do so this year, under the Paris Agreement.

And it is likely that the formal advice from the Climate Change Authority, led by Matt Kean, will be that 65 per cent is as low as Australia can conceivably go.

What pressure can the Teals actually bring to bear?

Perhaps it will be that their main backer, the Simon Holmes a Court-led Climate 200 movement, will threaten to go after many Labor seats at the next election if there isn’t a deeper cut.

Originally published as Australians are past the era of voting just Labor or Liberal, and the crossbench is about to get a lot messier