Highfields town centre changes questioned by new economic needs assessment commissioned for Highfields Chamber of Commerce

A new report has raised serious issues about proposed changes to the upcoming Highfields town centre, calling the council’s methodology “fundamentally flawed”.

Concept art of the Highfields town centre master plan, which has been revamped by the Toowoomba Regional Council following a market-sounding report that saw input from developers.

The Toowoomba Regional Council’s planned changes to the upcoming Highfields town centre are based on “fundamentally flawed” assumptions and modelling around current and future demand for commercial space.

That’s according to a new economic needs assessment (ENA) commissioned by the Highfields Chamber of Commerce, which has urged the council to not only maintain the amount of land within the precinct zoned for retail and commercial purposes, but also reduce the amount of low-density residential space.

The report by Foresight Partners comes less than two months after the TRC presented a “high-level” retail demand assessment at community forums and meetings with concerned residents and business owners.

The chamber has been leading the advocacy in recent months against planned changes to the town centre, which is slated for a large parcel of land on the corner of Highfields and O’Brien’s Road.

Alarm bells were raised in February when the council released a revised master plan on the back of a market-sounding report that recommended scaling back the amount of retail and office space.

But in the ENA, Foresight Partners argued that that removing 4.5 per cent of centre-zoned land would leave Highfields’ main trade area (MTA) under-serviced looking ahead to 2046.

The report based its MTA on not just Highfields but also burgeoning communities to the west and north of the area.

“The population of the MTA is expected to grow from 28,790 residents in 2024 to 38,720 residents in 2046 — this represents a 34 per cent increase in population,” it said.

Mapping by Foresight Partners showing Highfields' main trade areas, which extend beyond Highfields and into Crows Nest and Goombungee.

“There is a projected undersupply of 56,470 sqm of centre zoned land in the MTA by 2026, increasing to an undersupply of 156,220 sqm by 2046.

“The scale of this projected shortfall indicates a clear requirement for additional centre-zoned land within the MTA to meet anticipated demand.”

The report also complements an alternative proposal for the town centre, also commissioned by the chamber, which suggest a new pedestrian mall like Nicholas Street in Ipswich, an activation street with multi-storey buildings, expansion of the commercially-zoned areas and medium-density housing areas.

Council’s modelling criticised as “unreliable”

The report also savaged the council’s 2022 centres study, arguing it was based on a catchment much smaller than what would actually use the town centre.

“This high-level demand assessment is fundamentally flawed, as it fails to consider localised spending behaviour and limits the relevant population base (i.e. the catchment) to the Highfields SA2 only, despite the Highfields major centre serving a catchment that extends beyond this area,” Foresight Partners wrote.

It also raised questions about assumptions the TRC made in relation to the success of retail above the ground floor.

“Council states that the town centre land (32,500 sqm) could provide 68,000 sqm of retail/commercial GFA, assuming 70 per cent site coverage and three-storey buildings throughout the area,” it said.

“These assumptions lack justification, are significantly overstated, and almost certainly will not be realised.

“In SEQ, retail uses typically struggle to be viable in second floor locations (with some exceptions).

“Based on the factors noted above and the analysis set out this report, council’s assessment of the adequacy of centre zoned land in the Central Highfields Masterplan is unreliable.”

Huge demand for new healthcare spaces

Foresight Partners also pointed to the need for health care services in Highfields — not just into the future but right now.

The report’s modelling argued there would be a demand for about 10,000 sqm in floor space just for health care by 2046, highlighting a demand for more “non-retail” areas.

But it also said there was anecdotal evidence of a need right now, with Village Medical Centre unable to move from its current site despite being overwhelmed with patients.

“There is demand for a wider range of health care services in Highfields such as exercise physiology, psychology, occupational therapy, physiotherapy, podiatry, pathology, pharmacy, and radiology,” it said.

“The clinic wishes to expand to around double its current size (of about) 400 sqm (but) has no opportunity or capacity to expand its current offering.”

Report questions increase of housing in town centre

Mapping by Foresight Partners showing Highfields' broadhectare land for residential use.

One of the key changes to the newest version of the master plan saw an increase not just in residential-zoned land within the town centre, but also more low-density housing specifically as a proportion of the overall precinct.

While the supply of housing has become a major issue for the Toowoomba region in recent years, the ENA said Highfields was well-serviced for future broadhectare residential land into the future.

“A spatial review of residential zones in the Highfields area indicates a significant supply of low-density residential zoned land at the periphery of Highfields,” it said.

“This raises questions regarding the need for residential uses (particularly low density residential) in the town centre as proposed in the master plan.

“Directing residential development outside the Central Highfields precinct preserves centre zoned land for retail and commercial uses for which, there is a significant economic need.”

Staged divestment encouraged

The council’s market-sounding exercise, which saw firm JLL deliver findings on the back of discussions with developers, was a key catalyst to the raft of changes to the town centre earlier this year.

But FP said a “phased approach” would allow the council respond to population growth and demand for certain centre uses more effectively.

“Initial stages can focus on securing key anchor tenants and essential services to meet the current undersupply of retail/commercial uses,” the report said.

“Later stages may introduce a more diverse and higher order range of uses, including commercial, retail and health care, as demand strengthens.

“For developers, staging is attractive because it enables near-term return on investment by concentrating early efforts on smaller, more manageable parcels, reducing upfront costs and financial risk.

“Divesting commercial land in smaller parcels can also attract a wider pool of buyers, increasing market competition and interest.”